July 4, 2007
"SLAUGHTER RULE" WON'T SAVE REPUBLICANS IN 2008
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Luckily for the Democrats, there is no "slaughter rule" in Illinois politics. They can keep piling on, run up the score, and win more Republican-held legislative seats with each passing election.
At present the Republicans are a 37-22 minority in the Illinois Senate and a 67-51 minority in the Illinois House. That makes them minimally relevant, bordering on the inconsequential. If current trends continue, they will sink to invisibility.
Going into 2008, Illinois Republicans should be on a roll, not in free fall. The Democratic governor, Rod Blagojevich, is disingenuous, lazy and inept. The Democratic House speaker, Mike Madigan, and the Democratic Senate president, Emil Jones, are estranged and antagonistic. Madigan detests Blagojevich. The governor reviles Madigan, and Jones is allied with Blagojevich. Despite the huge Democratic majorities, they can't even pass a fiscal 2008 budget, and they have resorted to a 1-month "emergency budget" to keep state government operating.
In any other place, state or time, the governing party would be castigated for being feeble and incompetent and the opposition would benefit. Not in Illinois. In fact, Democrats are poised to make legislative gains in 2008.
Of Illinois' 59 senators, 39 are up for election in 2008, including 23 Democrats and 16 Republicans. As recently as 2002 Republicans held a 32-27 majority. The 2001 Democratic remap transformed that into a 33-26 minority, with Republicans losing five seats in 2002. They picked up a seat in 2004 but then lost five seats in 2006, for a 37-22 minority, a historical low. A veto-proof three-fifths majority means that the Democrats can pass any bill after adjournment, or override the governor's veto. Senate Republicans will remain irrelevant until they attain 24 seats, or a net gain of two in 2008.
Republicans are targeting four Democratic incumbents in 2008, while Democrats are targeting three Republican seats. Of the 118 representatives, at least six Republicans are in jeopardy If Democratic strength increases to 70, or a net gain of three, they will have a veto-proof majority. In late June Democrats picked up a seat when state Representative Paul Froehlich (R-56), the Schaumburg Township Republican committeeman since 1998, switched parties.
Here's a look at key 2008 contests:
56th House District (Schaumburg, Roselle, Hanover Park): This west suburban district, encompassing parts of Cook and DuPage counties, gave George Bush 53.7 percent of the vote in 2000 and 54.1 percent of the vote in 2004. Froehlich appointed himself to a vacant House seat in 2003, and he was re-elected without opposition in 2004 and 2006.
A longtime conservative activist, Froehlich was a protege of Don Totten, the area's state representative and state senator between 1966 and 1982. Totten was the Illinois campaign manager for Ronald Reagan in 1976 and 1980, and he lost the 1982 nomination for lieutenant governor to George Ryan. Froehlich ran against Totten, Schaumburg Township's 32-year Republican committeeman, in 1998 and beat him 3,445-2,845. Froehlich organized a group called STAR (Schaumburg Township Alliance of Republicans), in opposition to Totten's ROOST (Republican Organization of Schaumburg Township). In 2001 Froehlich's STAR ousted all the remaining Totten-allied township officials, and Froehlich was elected township assessor.
Schaumburg Township went 21,922-9,936 for Reagan in 1980 and 29,909-9,578 for Reagan in 1984. Bush beat Gore 21,072-20,453 in 2000, and Kerry beat Bush 25,259-23,339 in 2004. Clearly, there's been a sea change in the township.
The rap against Froehlich is that he is untrustworthy and an opportunist. He reportedly said that he switched because Republicans were in the House minority, and he could be "more effective" in the Democratic majority. According to township Democratic Committeeman Rocco Terranova, against whom Froehlich has jousted for years, Froehlich reportedly switched because there "is too little (Republican) support in the district." Terranova has cause for apprehension: If Froehlich wins as a Democrat in 2008, he'll likely run against Terranova for Democratic committeeman in 2010. If Terranova's organization aids Froehlich, it will be the proverbial cut-off-my-nose-to-spite-my-face syndrome. It's like John McCain deciding that he can't win as a Republican for president and switching to the Democrats. Terranova will field an opponent to Froehlich, but all of Froehlich's township allies will now become Democrats.
With the Tottenites beaten and banished, and with Froehlich in firm control of the township, the anti-Froehlich Republicans are in disarray. In the 2006 primary, Anna Klimkowicz, the Totten candidate, lost to Froehlich 3,948-1,968, getting just 33.3 percent of the vote. Erin Mueller, a local businessman, is the likely 2008 Republican candidate. Froehlich's antics have alienated a most Republicans, and they have not impressed Democrats. "It's an affront to Republicans," said one observer. "They can't let him win." Froehlich could lose the 2008 Democratic primary.
44th House District (Hoffman Estates, Streamwood): Froehlich's role model may be Republican-turned-Democrat Fred Crespo, who beat 22-year Republican incumbent Terry Parke in 2006 by 915 votes, getting 52.3 percent of the vote in a district that went 54.3 percent for Kerry in 2004. Crespo is favored in 2008.
33rd Senate District (Park Ridge, Des Plaines, Mount Prospect, Arlington Heights, Elk Grove): Democrat Dan Kotowski waged an intensive, 18-month door-to-door campaign for the 2006 election and beat appointed incumbent Cheryl Axley by 1,434 votes, getting 51.2 percent of the vote. Axley replaced Republican Dave Sullivan, who had resigned. A Democrat had never been elected to this suburban seat.
As an incumbent, Kotowski has not been a tool of Jones, opposing the Blagojevich budget, tax hikes and pay raises. He's also infuriated gun rights groups with his perpetual gun control proposals. Republicans, however, cannot settle on a foe. Announced candidates include Maine Township High School District 207 Board of Education member Eric Leys and Elk Grove Township Clerk Mike Sweeney. Both Elk Grove Mayor Craig Johnson and Arlington Heights Mayor Arlene Mulder have rejected entreaties to run.
The "dream candidate" of Springfield Republicans is David Harris, an area state representative from 1983 to 1992, the former adjutant general of the Illinois National Guard, and a civilian employee of the U.S. State Department in Iraq to supervise reconstruction. Harris, a social conservative, lost his seat in the 1992 Republican primary to Carolyn Krause, then Mount Prospect's mayor.
The two state representatives from Kotowski's district are Krause (R-66) and Rosemary Mulligan (R-65) of Des Plaines. Krause won't support Harris, due to animosity from 1992. Mulligan won't support Leys, figuring that he will run against her in the future if he gets visibility from a Senate race, and she won't support Harris, given his pro-life position. So that leaves the obscure Sweeney as the likely Republican nominee. Kotowski is favored to keep his seat.
27th Senate District (Buffalo Grove, Arlington Heights, Prospect Heights, Palatine, Inverness): Republican incumbent Wendell Jones, a former Palatine mayor, was appointed in 1998 to replace Peter Fitzgerald, and he won election in 2002 with 59.9 percent of the vote in a district won by Bush with 52.6 percent of the vote in 2000 and with 52.7 percent in 2004.
Republican Matt Murphy, a social conservative, beat former Palatine mayor Rita Mullins, a pro-choice liberal, in the 2006 Republican primary by 9,691-6,583, with 59.6 percent of the vote. Mullins then endorsed Democrat Peter Gutzmer, who was heavily funded by Emil Jones, spending $420,000. Murphy eked out a 31,881-28,698 win, getting 52.6 percent of the vote, and Gutzmer is set to run again in 2008. Murphy is a slight favorite.
42nd Senate District (Aurora, Plainfield, suburban Joliet, Shorewood, including parts of Will, Kane and Kendall counties): Like with Sullivan in the 33rd District, the succession to retiring Republican Ed Petka, who won a local judgeship, should have been seamlessly Republican. The 2006 race pitted Republican Terri Ann Wintermute against Democrat Linda Holmes, who won in an upset by 2,843 votes, with 52.4 percent of the total cast.
Kerry got 51.8 percent of the vote in the district in 2004, and Bush got 49.2 percent in 2000. Holmes voted for gambling expansion and the legislative pay raise, and he voted present on a bill to legalize marijuana. In a Chicago Tribune article, Holmes was quoted as saying that "it is hard to know what to do." Wintermute is running again, and she has a great chance to win.
59th Senate District (Far Southern Illinois: West Frankfort, Benton, Marion, Harrisburg): Incumbent Democrat Gary Forby was humiliated when Emil Jones used a parliamentary maneuver to kill Forby's amendment to add ComEd to the Ameren utility rate freeze bill. To his constituents, Forby now looks like a fool.
According to Springfield sources, either Pulaski County State's Attorney Grayson Gile or 2002 loser Ron Summers, who got 47.3 percent of the vote, will be the 2006 Republican nominee. Against Forby, either would win. But Democrats are pressuring Forby to retire, and they want Blagojevich to give him a state job. If that occurs, state Representative Brandon Phelps (D-118) of Harrisburg would run and keep the seat.
47th Senate District (Quincy, Macomb, Monmouth): Democrat John Sullivan, who beat a Republican in 2002 and who was re-elected in 2004 with 61.8 percent of the vote, wants to run for Congress in the 18th District if Republican Ray LaHood retires to become Bradley University president. A Republican could win Sullivan's open seat.