June 27, 2007
'08 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY LOOMS FOR RECORDER, MWRD
In commemoration of the 4th of July, 2007, here's four mini-columns, not just a massive column: In the 2008 Cook County Recorder of Deeds race, Democratic incumbent Gene Moore is a "Dead Man Walking." Moore was once the powerhouse Democratic committeeman of west suburban Proviso Township. But he lost the job in 2006 to State Rep. Karen Yarbrough, who is running against him for Recorder in 2008. The "Rule of Clout" -- meaning any city/county officeholder/committeeman who loses his ward or township is a goner -- portends that Moore will be dumped by Democratic slatemakers in favor of Ald. Ed Smith (28th). Smith will beat Yarbrough. In the always-tumultous primary for Metropolitan Water Reclamation District (MWRD) commissioner, the sins of the son are attaching to the father. Comr. M. Frank Avila will be dumped, due to the anti-Daley antics of his son, attorney Frank Avila. In the 32nd Ward, Democratic Committeeman Terry Gabinski has two choices: Retire, or lose to State Rep. John Fritchey (D-11). In northwest suburban Maine Township, the retirement of Supervisor Bob Dudycz (R) may bring peace to the perpetually bickering Republicans. Full Article...
June 20, 2007
"DEVINE DECEPTION" SEEN IN STATE'S ATTORNEY RACE
Will it be a "Devine Decption," 2007's equivalent of the 2005 Sheahan Switcheroo? Democrat Dick Devine has been Cook County's State's Attorney since 1996, and he knows well his place and his role: His place is to be a loyal cog in the political machine of his mentor, Chicago Mayor Rich Daley, for whom he served as first assistant state's attorney when Daley held the post. His role is to watch the mayor's back, and not launch any investigations into the plethora of "official corruption" which permeates city and county government. The feds have convicted 44 in the Hired Truck scandal. Devine is Missing In Action. Republican Cook County Commissioner Tony Peraica is poised to run for state's attorney in 2008, and called Devine a "toady." But the toady is about to hit the roady. Devine will retire, and a nasty Democratic primary looks likely. Candidates include Democratic County Commissioners Larry Suffredin and Mike Quigley, white Aldermen Pat O'Connor and Tom Allen, and black Ald. Howard Brookins, and first asst. State's Atty. Bob Milan. O'Connor ran and lost in 1992. Rumors abound that Devine will announce and file, but then withdraw on the last day, and let the party insert Milan. In a crowded primary, Brookins would get solid black support, and have the edge. Allen, if slated, would be a formidable candidate. Full Article...
June 13, 2007
DEMOCRATS' '08 FORMULA: EC+GROB+NTP = VICTORY
The Einstein-like formula for the Democrats to win the presidency in 2008 is EC+GROB+NTP. That means Electoral College plus burgeoning Get Rid Of Bush sentiment plus No Third Party, coupled with a credible Democratic nominee, equals victory. In a two-party race for president, it's all about the Electoral College. George Bush got 50,456,169 votes in 2000 (47.8%) and 62,040,060 votes in 2004 (50.7%). Bush carried 29 states in 2000, 30 in 2004; he got 271 electoral votes in 2000, one more than a majority, and 286 in 2004. Two 2000 Gore states (New Mexico and Iowa) went for Bush in 2004, and one 2000 Bush state (New Hampshire) went for Kerry in 2004. The arithmetic for 2008 is simple: If pro-Bush 2004 states containing 17 or more electoral votes switch to the Democrat in 2008, the election is over. Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Iowa (7), Arizona (10) and Virginia (13) are all in play for 2008, and some or all could go Democratic. The Democratic base states (California, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, plus 13 smaller states), give their 2008 nominee at least 252 electoral votes. The Republican base states (Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and presumably Virginia, plus 20 smaller states), give their 2008 nominee at least 254 electoral votes. A Democrat will win in 2008, unless a liberal third-party nominee, such as New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg or Senator Chuck Hagel, get on the ballot as run as "reform" or anti-Iraq candidates, draining votes from the Democrats. In that scenario, a Republican could win with just over 40%. Full Article...
June 6, 2007
DEMOCRATS TARGET FOUR GOP CONGRESSMEN IN '08
Illinois is not quite Ground Zero in the national Democrats' effort to pad their 233-202 majority in the U.S. House, but there are four pickup opportunities in 2008. Republican congressmen are vulnerable in the 6th, 10th, 11th and 14th districts. Democrats hold a 10-9 majority in the delegation. If 2008 is a great Democratic year, if ex-Speaker Dennis Hastert retires in the far southwest suburban/rural 14th District (Elgin, Aurora, Yorkville, St. Charles), and if the Republicans nominate a political "nut" to replace him, Democrat Linda Chapa LaVia is primed to take the seat. Contenders include Jim Oberweis (now known as the Milk Dud), Chris Lauzen, Tim Schmitz, Pat Reid Lindner and Karen McConnaughay. Schmitz would win the GOP primary if Oberweis and Lauzen split the hardcore conservative vote, but Lauzen would win if Oberweis stays out, and Schmitz and Lindner split the more moderate vote. Incumbent Jerry Weller's Will County-based district is trending Democratic. Incumbent Mark Kirk is fervently hoping the Iraq War is no more by 2008, or he may be history. And incumbent Peter Roskam, who barely won in 2006, is hoping Tammy Duckworth won't take another crack at the seat. Full Article...
Previous Articles