September 28, 2005
IS "CONSPIRACY" AFOOT IN BOARD PRESIDENT PRIMARY?
In the 2006 Democratic primary for Cook County Board president, it's deju vu all over. Back in 1994, black Commissioner John Stroger won the nomination with 47 percent, beating two white women. In 2006, Stroger will face two white men -- Commissioners Mike Quigley and Forrest Claypool, both of whom are running as "reformers." County government is the usual quagmire of scandals and scofflaws, but it almost looks pristine compared to Chicago. Stroger is Mayor Rich Daley staunchest black ally, and he can count on 90% of the black vote if he runs. Daley wants -- and needs -- the 76-year old Stroger to keep his job, especially since he could be succeeded by Clerk of Court Dorothy Brown, a black who could give Daley a rough mayoral race in 2007. But here's the point: Quigley can't win with Claypool in the race, and Claypool, who will raise $2 million, can't win with Quigley in the race. So it looks like four more years of Stroger. Full Article...
September 21, 2005
LEGISLATIVE REPUBLICANS NEED EDGAR COMEBACK
Absence makes the heart grow fonder. So does desperation. Illinois Republicans, particularly those in the state legislature, are wallowing in gloom, with a dose of panic. With a 27-32 minority in the Illinois Senate, and a 53-65 minority in the Illinois House, an adverse 2006 could dispatch them to irrelevancy. That's why ex-Governor Jim Edgar, never a favorite of conservative Republicans, looms large as their salvation. Edgar, as governor from 1991 to 1998, made permanent the 1989 income tax surcharge, which raised the personal state income tax to 3%; he also supported, in 1997, a "tax swap," which would have raised again the state income tax, but lowered property taxes, to fund schools; it didn't pass. But all is forgotten and/or forgiven. A nasty Republican primary for governor will divide the party, and the nomination of somebody like Jim Oberweis will doom the party. Come back, Jim -- please, please. That's the Republicans' plaintive cry. Here's a synopsis of key 2006 state senate contests. Full Article...
September 14, 2005
CHICAGO'S DEMOGRAPHIC TREND: MORE WHITES, FEWER BLACKS
Mid-decade demographic trends indicate that Chicago's population, by the time of the 2010 census, will consist of more whites, fewer blacks, and many, many more Hispanics. At present, of the city's 50 aldermen, 19 are black, 8 Hispanic, and 23 white. But the city currently has 20 wards with a black majority, 10 with a Hispanic majority, and 20 with a white majority. The redevelopment of the South Loop and the Eisenhower Expressway corridor has precipitated a large influx of affluent whites into the central city; they are replacing blacks in the 2nd and 24th wards. The continuing expansion of the Hispanic community, along the Grand Avenue corridor on the near North, and along the Ogden Avenue corridor on the near South, is pushing blacks out of the 29th and 37th wards and whites out of the 13th and 23rd wards. After the 2010 census and next ward redistricting -- which won't take effect until the 2015 election -- Chicago will have four more majority-Hispanic wards, and two fewer white-majority and two fewer black-majority wards. Full Article...
September 7, 2005
SKOIEN'S GOP REBUILDING DOOMED TO FAILURE
Illinois has become a solidly Democratic "blue" state, and that's primarily because Chicago and surrounding Cook County have become so monolithically Democratic. John Kerry won Chicago in 2004 by 621,356 votes, and the suburbs by 184,501; just four years earlier, Al Gore won Chicago by 604,929, and the suburbs by 141,076 -- meaning the county is growing more Democratic. Only 5 of the 30 suburban townships voted for President Bush in 2004, and he got only 18.3% of the city vote. Once upon a time, a Republican could win countywide office by amassing 65% of the suburban vote, and just under 40% of the Chicago vote. No longer. Even though the city and suburban vote is now at parity, the heavy concentration of blacks in the suburbs makes it impossible for a Republican to get more than half the suburban vote. County GOP chairman Gary Skoien is gamely trying to position his party as the "reform party," but Republican bickering is epidemic, and he's getting no traction. In another decade, Republicans will be getting under 30% in the suburbs. Full Article...
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