August 31, 2005
STATE SENATORS HAUNTED BY "CARROLL SYNDROME"
It's called the "Carroll Syndrome," and it's a politically terminal malady which haunts most of Illinois' 59 state senators. Under the state Constitution, senators run three times every 10 years in districts which contain two Illinois House districts. The state's 118 representatives run five times each decade. For senators, a bigger district and a longer term is not necessarily a prescription for good health. Howie Carroll was a 26-year Northwest Side state senator, elected in 1972, and re-elected seven times. But, when he ran for Congress in 1998, he didn't even carry his district, and lost to Jan Schakowsky. Carroll was a major player in Springfield, but back home he was nobody. That's why every senator fears some self-funding, big-spending challenger. To some degree, every Illinois senator is vulnerable, either in a primary or election. The 2005 ILLINOIS SENATE VOTE CHART can be accessed on this website. Full Article...
August 24, 2005
AREA STATE REPS LOOK SAFE IN 2006
It usually ain't over until it's over, but for eight Northwest Side Chicago and northwest suburban state representatives, the 2006 election is all but over. Each incumbent is a good fit for his/her district, each is well-funded, and none will be beat in 2006. Of the group, Mike McAuliffe (R-20) is the most conservative, socially and fiscally; the most liberal are John Fritchey (D-11), Rich Bradley (D-40) and Lou Lang (D-16). Democrats Joe Lyons (D-19) and John D'Amico (D-15) are somewhat conservative on social issues, and Republicans Beth Coulson (R-17) and Rosemary Mulligan (R-65) are liberal on social issues. Lang and Fritchey are ambitious: Lang wants to run for governor in 2006, and Fritchey harbors dreams about running for mayor in 2007 or attorney general in 2010. As the adjoining 2005 ILLINOIS HOUSE VOTE CHART indicates, no incumbent cast any vote which could be construed as a silver bullet. Full Article...
August 17, 2005
LANG PONDERS PRIMARY BID AGAINST BLAGOJEVICH
Lou Lang, a relatively obscure liberal Democratic state representative from Skokie, hungers to be Illinois' governor, and has no doubt that he can oust the incumbent, Rod Blogojevich, in the March 2006 primary. But a lot of others have doubt, especially since Blagojevich has over $14 million in his campaign fund. Lang said that he could win with $6 million, and has set an arbitrary deadline of Labor Day (2005) to raise his first $2 million. The turnout in the '06 primary will likely be in the realm of 1.25 million, so Lang needs 630,000 votes to win. He needs 70% of the Downstate vote, 65% of the collar county vote, and 48% of the Cook County vote. The governor is enormously unpopular Downstate, but he'll spend what it takes to win, even if it means demonizing Lang as a tool of the Republicans. Lang won't win, but he can demonstrate Blagojevich's precarious political position. Full Article...
August 10, 2005
JACKSON POISED TO RUN FOR CHICAGO MAYOR IN '07
Have no doubt. Jesse Jackson Jr., the black congressman from Chicago's South Side, is definitely running for mayor in 2007. He will run as a "reformer" who happens to be black, not as the "black movement" candidate. He will make the contest a referendum on Mayor Rich Daley, with the central issue being corruption. He will attempt to engender economic populism and geographic solidarity, pitting the "haves" against the "have nots," and the outlying areas against the affluent central city. He must excite his black base, but not alienate whites. The vote for black mayoral candidates has dropped from 668,176 in 1983 to just 61,888 in 2003. Jackson proclaimed that he wants to register 650,000 new voters; he doesn't need to. He just needs to turn out the black base (which came out heavily for Barack Obama in 2004) and grab 25% of the white/Hispanic vote, which he expects to do as the pro-reform, anti-Daley candidate. Jackson could win in 2007. Full Article...
August 3, 2005
DALEY BECOMING CHICAGO'S "INCREDIBLE SHRINKING MAYOR"
Every day, in every way, Chicago Mayor Rich Daley is being diminished -- and that means personally, politically, morally, institutionally and financially. With 30 federal indictments into alleged administration corruption, and 22 guilty pleas, public tolerance of Daley is dwindling. Daley's popularity and respect is being diminished, which lessens the value of his endorsement and/or support. With future hiring no longer based on political clout, Daley's political machine is being diminished; city workers will no longer troop through precincts for the mayor's candidates. With paralysis, paranoia and inertia affecting city government, Daley's moral leadership is diminished. With Daley under a cloud, Chicago's city council is reasserting itself, meaning Daley's institutional power is diminished. And even though he has $6 million in his campaign account, who will give money to an embattled mayor -- who could retire or get indicted? Daley is Chicago's Incredible Shrinking Mayor. Full Article...
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