November 3, 2004
CAMPAIGNS FOR 2005, 2006, 2007 ALREADY UNDERWAY

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Unlike the seasons, which terminate on schedule, political cycles seem to progress without interruption. As the 2004 political year ended on Nov. 2, the 2005 -- and 2006, and even 2007 -- political cycles began on Nov. 3.

Here's a synopsis of noteworthy political developments:

42nd Ward: Please save Burt for me.

The ward's Republican committeeman, Rich Gordon, ran a strong aldermanic campaign against longtime incumbent Burt Natarus in 2003, losing 5,540-4,378 and getting 44.2 percent of the vote. Gordon is primed to run again in 2007. Since 2003 there have been two notable occurrences:

First, Natarus, who has been an alderman since 1971, finally emerged from George Dunne's shadow. Dunne, who was the Cook County Board president from 1968 to 1990, retired as ward Democratic committeeman in 2004, and Natarus, eager to get control of the ward's political machinery, ran for the job. He was opposed by Ken Gillis, a former county judge, and he won 4,692-3,525, getting 57.1 percent of the vote. That was a solid but not spectacular victory for a man who had been alderman for 33 years and who was backed by Dunne's political organization. "There's a lot of fatigue (with Natarus) in this ward," Gordon said.

And second, the June 2004 conviction of Michael Segal, the owner of Near North Insurance, on 26 counts of racketeering, mail fraud and embezzlement will be an issue in 2007. Segal stole about $35 million from the firm's customer accounts. Dunne founded the company and sold it to Segal. During Segal's trial, he claimed that he had made $125,000 in loans to Natarus. Natarus vociferously denied that allegation, saying that the money was paid to him as legal fees for work done from 1975 to 1991.

A federal grand jury has since subpoenaed various work and tax documents from Natarus.

Rumors abound that Natarus, age 71, will resign as alderman in the next year so as to allow Mayor Rich Daley to appoint a successor. Absent an indictment, that won't happen. And that makes Gordon ecstatic. Without Natarus in the 2007 aldermanic race, Gordon would face a horde of opponents, and a Daley-backed "new face" Democrat likely would win the seat. But if it's a one-on-one race between Gordon and Natarus, Gordon is convinced that "Natarus fatigue" will make him Chicago's second Republican alderman.

Cicero: The new boss is the same old boss.

Former Cicero town president Betty Loren-Maltese is in the slammer, and Ramiro Gonzalez, a Mexican-born immigrant, now has her job. But Ed Vrdolyak, the former alderman of Chicago's 10th Ward, remains Cicero's undisputed political boss. Vrdolyak's law firm is the Cicero attorney, and the firm billed the town for $1.19 million in legal fees from 1993 to 2003. Vrdolyak and Cicero Town Supervisor Joe Virruso picked Gonzalez to replace Loren-Maltese after her federal conviction on corruption charges.

In a brutal 2003 campaign for the remainder of her 4-year term, Gonzalez, running as a Republican, prevailed over Democrat Joseph Mario Moreno, a Cook County commissioner who in 2000 moved from Chicago to Cicero to run. Cicero is now almost 75 percent Hispanic, primarily Mexican-American, but among eligible voters, whites are only a slight minority. In 2001 Loren-Maltese got 9,492 votes (59.5 percent) to Moreno's 6,444. In 2003, against Gonzalez, who had been elected a trustee in 2001, Moreno got 5,382 votes (39.6 percent) to Gonzalez's 8,198.

Ever the itinerant politician, and astutely concluding that a Hispanic Democrat cannot beat a Hispanic Republican in Cicero, Moreno has moved out of Cicero and is rumored to be contemplating a bid for Cook County Board president in 2006. For 2005, the likely candidates against Gonzalez are Larry Dominick, a former member of the Republican organization who would challenge Gonzalez in the primary, and Luis deCrenzio, a Cicero construction company owner who would run as a Democrat.

Cicero has an annual budget of $50 million and a work force of 650. The knock on Gonzalez is that he has been firing whites and hiring Hispanics -- and that he has been hiring a lot of family members. But in a majority-Hispanic town, that makes him a hero, not a villain. The "Vrdolyak-Virruso Machine" will crank out another huge vote for Gonzalez in 2005, among both whites and Hispanics, and he will win with close to 70 percent of the vote.

Harwood Heights: The "Gang of Four" no more?

Since the 2003 election, the four village trustees -- dubbed the "Gang of Four" -- have gridlocked Harwood Heights' government and have rendered Mayor Norb Pabich impotent. Trustee Marge Fuller and her three allies, Mark Dobrzycki, George Alex and Mary Duffy, stripped the mayor of hiring powers, blocked his nominee for police chief, and refused to provide a second so that Pabich could name a trustee to a vacant seat. Fuller has ambitions to run for the General Assembly, and her first step toward that goal is to beat Pabich for mayor in 2005.

Pabich won a four-candidate race in 2001 by just 70 votes, getting 599 votes out of 1,924 cast. In 2003 Fuller led the field for three at-large trustee spots, getting 931 votes, to 875 for Dobrzycki and 819 for Alex, with the three pro-Pabich trustees finishing with 786, 747 and 727.

Fuller is a polarizing figure, but she ranks as the early favorite in the mayoral race. She is an avowed Democrat, and she was active in the Capparelli-McAuliffe race in the 20th Illinois House District; Pabich, an independent when elected, endorsed Republican McAuliffe, and he will run in 2005 with Republican backing. His slate will be called the Unity Party, and it will include Trustee Arlene Jezierny, village deputy clerk Cathy Van Gieson and zoning chairwoman Pat Christl. The Fuller slate has yet to be formed.

33rd Ward: The Mell-man goeth?

Alderman Dick Mell, the father-in-law of Governor Rod Blagojevich, made many promises to get his protege into the Statehouse -- the chief of which was that there would be plenty of state patronage jobs for local Democrats. Those jobs have never materialized, so Mell gets plenty of grief from his fellow committeemen and aldermen. There were rumors that Mell, age 65, who has suffered serious health problems in recent years, would resign in mid-term in order to enable Daley to appoint Chuck LoManto, his chief of staff, as his successor.

But Mell apparently has decided to stick around to help "The Kid" (Blagojevich) in 2006, especially should he face a Democratic primary challenge. So LoManto might not become alderman until some time in mid-2006, if then. And it's entirely possible that Mell, who has been an alderman since 1975, just to protect his power base, could run for a ninth term in 2007 and resign thereafter.

32nd Ward: The Rostenkowski Residue.

John Fritchey is smart, articulate, ambitious and well connected, and he won Blagojevich's Illinois House seat in 1996. He also lives in Wicker Park in the upscale 32nd Ward, which has been politically controlled by Dan Rostenkowski, his father and his successors, since 1936. The current Democratic committeeman, Terry Gabinski, was the alderman from 1969 to 1999, when he resigned, and his chief of staff, Ted Matlak, was named by Daley as his successor. Gabinski was set to retire in 2004 and hand off his party post to Matlak, but Fritchey, who has close ties to Mell and who is the son-in-law of mega-clout lawyer Sam Banks, the brother of Alderman Bill Banks (36th), announced for committeeman.

Fearing that Fritchey could beat Matlak, Gabinski reversed himself and ran for re-election, and both Matlak and Fritchey folded their campaigns.

Since then, Fritchey has continued building his own political organization in the ward, which is rapidly filling with upscale professionals as gentrification continues. Fritchey wants to run for city clerk in 2007, but if Daley doesn't back him against incumbent Jim Laski, he may opt for Plan B and run against Matlak for alderman.

Governor: Anti-Blagojevich Democrats, both in and out of the closet, want to recruit a primary opponent. At this early day, former Chicago Public Schools chief executive officer Paul Vallas, currently the Philadelphia education chief, is mulling a second bid for governor. He lost the 2002 primary to Blagojevich by just 25,469 votes, and if he runs in 2006, he could be formidable.

Park Ridge: Interim Mayor Mike MaRous will not run for a full term in 2005. Already in the field are Aldermen Mike Tinaglia and Howard Frimark. Tinaglia is backed by the local Democratic organization, and Frimark by the Republicans. A Tinaglia win would be a political earthquake; although Park Ridge elections supposedly are nonpartisan, a Democrat has never been elected mayor since the city was incorporated.

Maine Township: Incumbent Supervisor Bob Dudycz will be opposed in 2005 by Republican Township Committeeman Mark Thompson, whom Dudycz beat in the 2001 Republican caucus. If Democrats field a credible candidate and two Republicans split their vote, a Democrat could win the supervisor's job.