October 22, 2003
"TOPINKA FACTOR" SPURS CHICAGO REPUBLICANS

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

The road to the governor's mansion runs through Chicago. That's because any Republican who wants to be Illinois' governor knows that getting less than a quarter of the Chicago vote means getting beat statewide.

In 1990 Republican Jim Edgar got 33.4 percent of the Chicago vote and won the governorship by 83,909 votes.

In 1998 Republican George Ryan got 31.9 percent of the Chicago vote and won the governorship by 119,903 votes.

In 2002 Republican Jim Ryan got 19.2 percent of the Chicago vote and lost the governorship by 252,080 votes. In that same election, incumbent Republican state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka got 28.6 percent of the Chicago vote and won re-election by 396,965 votes.

Topinka is gearing up to run for governor in 2006, and one of her top priorities is to reinvigorate the nearly comatose Chicago Republican party. She and her allies understand that the base Republican vote in Chicago is around 20 percent, so it takes some coalition-building to add another 10 percent. Edgar and Topinka got a higher-than-usual share -- for a Republican -- of the black vote, and George Ryan picked up the support of many liberals and gays who were estranged from Democrat Glenn Poshard.

So, rebuilding the city's Republican apparatus is not the key to statewide victory. It is, however, important from the perspective of developing future leaders, and also for fund-raising. Having an active Republican committeeman in a ward means that Republican-inclined voters have somewhere to go to get involved. And it means that statewide candidates, like Topinka, have a base of support, and at least a few precinct workers.

In 2004 all 50 wards will elect Democratic and Republican committeemen, and in April of that year each party will choose a city chairman and a county chairman. The Republican county chairman is Maureen Murphy, a Board of Review commissioner and the only Republican holding any countywide office; the city Republican chairman is the venerable Lou Kasper of the 30th Ward, who has been a committeeman since 1964 and the city party chairman for more than 20 years. Kasper is retiring in 2004, and a heated contest has begun to succeed him as city chairman.

Already in the race is Clark Pellett, an attorney who is not even a committeeman and who reportedly is not liked by many sitting committeemen. According to party insiders, Pellett is wrapping himself in the mantle of Topinka, claiming that her election in 2006 would be his top priority and that, if she's governor, he'll be showered with state patronage and other benefits.

Over the past decade, state patronage has not been used to the Republicans' advantage. In the 2000 presidential election, Democrat Al Gore won Illinois by 569,605 votes, carried Cook County by 746,005 votes, and won Chicago by 604,929 votes. George Bush, the Republican nominee, got a mere 164,930 votes in Chicago (17.2 percent), to Gore's 769,859, with the rest scattered. Gore's enormous edge in Chicago occasioned his statewide win. Ryan was then governor, and Republicans had held the governorship since 1977, but no army of state patronage workers stormed into Chicago to aid Bush.

In the 2002 election, Topinka got 189,187 votes (28.6 percent) in Chicago, to Democrat Tom Dart's 468,587 (71.0), with the rest scattered, losing the city by 279,400 votes -- almost 325,000 fewer than Bush in 2000. The Topinka vote wasn't much better than the 2000 Bush vote, but turnout was lower, and Dart had almost 300,000 fewer votes than Gore. Dart also ran well behind fellow Democrats Rod Blagojevich (who got 548,664 votes in Chicago), Dick Durbin (who got 553,607), Lisa Madigan (522,890) and Jesse White (598,727).

Topinka won the county suburbs by 106,931 votes, losing Cook County by just 172,469 votes. By comparison, Madigan won Cook County by 394,419 votes, Blagojevich by 468,974, White by 772,479 and Durbin by 587,898.

Pellett was elected the committeeman of the Lakefront/Gold Coast 42nd Ward in 1992 and was re-elected in 1996, but he was defeated in 2000 by Rich Gordon, who has made his ward a showpiece of Republican activism. Gordon ran for alderman in 2003, got 44 percent of the vote against incumbent Burt Natarus, and hasn't stopped campaigning and organizing since. He has a full-time ward "service" office, sponsors many activities for volunteers, and is a visible presence in the ward. Gordon spent just $30,000 in his 2003 bid, to Natarus's $300,000; if he had spent closer to $100,000 he'd be alderman today. Gordon is running for alderman again in 2007, and he has declined entreaties by fellow committeemen to run for city chairman.

As the adjoining vote chart indicates, the 42nd Ward has become one of the most Republican in the city. Topinka won it, even though Bush got only 36.5 percent of the vote in the ward in 2000. The Northwest Side's 41st Ward is still the top Republican ward, but the 42nd Ward has eclipsed the 45th Ward. The other wards with a growing Republican base -- the 43rd (Lincoln Park), 44th (Lakeview) and 32nd (Wicker Park) -- are all upscale areas with a lot of resident turnover. They contain a lot of well educated singles who can afford pricey condominiums, as well as a lot of empty nesters who have sold their suburban home and have purchased a luxury condo in the city.

These are not people looking for a job or a political favor. They are likely to be social moderates and fiscal conservatives. According to Gordon, these people "want to get involved" in the political process, and will support Republicans "if they are asked."

Brian Doherty of the 41st Ward is the only Chicago Republican alderman. He is allied with state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20), the 41st Ward Republican committeeman, and they have an active precinct organization in the ward. Gordon should make it two in 2007. That's still just a nominal presence, but it's a beginning. Back in the 1950s, Chicago had 11 Republican aldermen.

Since his defeat by Gordon, Pellett has moved into the 2nd Ward, just south of the Loop, and is running there for committeeman in 2004. The city chairman must be a committeeman. Pellett has been recruiting other Republicans to run for committeeman throughout Chicago, and he is the only active candidate for chairman at this time.

"He has no track record of success," scoffs John Curry, the 32nd Ward committeeman. "He couldn't even keep his (committeeman's) job, and now he wants to be chairman. I fail to see any reason why we (the city committeemen) would choose him to be our leader." Unless somebody else soon surfaces, Curry may emerge as the stop-Pellett candidate.

A candidate for Republican ward committeeman must submit nominating petitions bearing signatures amounting to between 5 percent and 10 percent of the highest Republican vote in the ward in the last election, which would be the Topinka vote. In Curry's ward, for example, Topinka got 6,799 votes, so Curry needs 340 to 680 signatures. In many black wards, the Topinka vote was barely over 1,000, so 50 to 100 signatures is all it takes to get on the ballot.

Topinka, who is the Republican committeeman from west suburban Riverside Township, professes neutrality in the upcoming city battle. She does not want to alienate half or more of the few Republicans left in Chicago. But to win the governorship in 2006, Topinka needs another dozen Rich Gordon-like committeemen: ambitious politicians who see the Republican committeemanship as a steppingstone to the ward's great prize, the aldermanic seat, in 2007 and who will work hard for her in 2006 to fine-tune their organizations for the 2007 city elections. And, most importantly, she needs a city chairman who will find them.