June 18, 2003
"BLACK IS BEATABLE" GIVES HOPE TO STATE GOP

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

"Black Is Beatable" has quietly emerged as the motto of Republican strategists plotting to ensure that their party continues to control the U.S. Senate after the 2004 election. The likelihood that a black candidate will emerge as the Democratic nominee in Senate races in Illinois and Georgia, and possibly Colorado and Florida, boosts Republican hopes of expanding their 51-49 majority.

In Illinois, the retirement of first-term Republican Peter Fitzgerald helped rather than hurt party prospects for keeping the seat. Any re-election bid is always a referendum on the incumbent, with the challenger on the attack. Fitzgerald was not a popular, entrenched incumbent, and he would have lost.

With Fitzgerald out, the Illinois Senate nominees will have to sell themselves and their ideas, or unsell their opponent. Republicans are hoping that the Democrats pick an unsalable candidate, and that they can spend millions of dollars to make him unelectable.

At present, it's likely that Illinois' Republicans will nominate a rich white guy, and it's also likely that the Democrats will nominate a black candidate from Chicago, state Senator Barack Obama. Given that scenario, the rich white guy will win.

Obama, age 41, who represents the Hyde Park area, is a Harvard Law School graduate and a University of Chicago law school professor. He was elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996, and he lost a 2002 Democratic congressional primary to incumbent Bobby Rush (D-1). He is a capable and credible contender; but he lacks both money and name recognition. His base is the black vote in Cook County, plus a few liberal whites. That should give him 30 percent of the statewide primary vote.

But, incredibly, that might be enough to win, since the rest of the Democratic field consists of a parade of white politicians who may so fracture the remaining 70 percent that none of them will amass more than Obama's total. The expected entry of Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn into the contest would boost the current field to nine: Obama, Quinn, state comptroller Dan Hynes, Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas, former Chicago Board of Education president Gery Chico, millionaire Chicago businessman Blair Hull, millionaire attorney John Simmons of Edwardsville, Metamora Mayor Matt O'Shea and Joyce Washington, a hospital administrator who ran against Quinn in the 2002 primary. Chico is Hispanic, and Obama and Washington are black.

In political parlance, any contest with six or more candidates is a "jungle primary." Such primaries have been quite common in the South over the past 30 years: The two candidates with the most fervent, committed base would emerge one-two, with a black or a white liberal usually finishing first, in the 30 percent range. But then there would be a runoff, and the remaining 70 percent would coalesce around the conservative white candidate, who would then win easily.

In Illinois, however, there is no runoff provision. The top vote-getter wins. And, in recent Illinois history, there has not been a "jungle primary" for any major statewide office. The only parallels are the Democratic presidential primaries in 1984 and 1988, when Jesse Jackson was on the ballot. In 1984, in a field of eight, Jackson got 21 percent of the vote (with 348,843 votes), finishing third behind Walter Mondale (40 percent) and Gary Hart (35 percent). In 1988, in a field of six, Jackson got 32 percent (with 484,233 votes), finishing second to Paul Simon (42 percent) and ahead of Mike Dukakis (16 percent), Al Gore (5 percent), Dick Gephardt (2 percent) and Gary Hart (1 percent).

So Obama's voter base is somewhere between 21 percent and 32 percent. Three recent Democratic Senate primaries also are illustrative:

 In 1984 Paul Simon, then a Downstate congressman but well known as a former lieutenant governor and a 1972 gubernatorial candidate, finished first in a four-man field with 556,757 votes (36 percent), followed by Roland Burris, the black state comptroller, with 360,182 votes (23 percent), Alex Seith, the 1978 nominee, with 327,125 votes (21 percent), and Phil Rock, the Illinois Senate president and endorsed party nominee, with 303,397 votes (19 percent). Note that the 1984 Jackson vote (348,843) was almost identical to the Burris vote (360,182). The turnout was 1,547,461, and Simon won because he got a huge vote in his Downstate geographic base and about a quarter of the white vote in Cook County.

In 1992 Carol Moseley Braun, then the obscure black Cook County recorder, ran for senator against incumbent Al Dixon, a Downstater, and millionaire Chicago attorney Al Hofeld. In a year of revulsion against the status quo, and of an outpouring of women voting for women, Braun pulled a monumental upset, topping the field with 557,694 votes (38 percent), to Dixon's 504,077 (35 percent) and Hofeld's 394,497 (27 percent). Dixon ran well in his Downstate base, but Braun had solid black support, and she won almost 40 percent of the white vote in Cook County. Turnout was 1,456,268, almost 100,000 lower than in 1984. Note that Braun's vote was about 200,000 higher than that of Burris in 1984 and about 73,000 higher than Jackson's in 1988.

In 1996, when Simon retired, five Democrats sought the nomination. The two most credible candidates were Quinn, a former state treasurer who had lost to George Ryan for secretary of state in 1994, and Dick Durbin, a Downstate congressman. In a low-interest primary, Durbin, endorsed by Simon and the Democratic establishment, prevailed easily, with 512,520 votes (65 percent), to Quinn's 233,138 (30 percent); the bulk of Quinn's vote came from Chicago's black wards. Note that the 1996 turnout dropped to 790,055, almost 670,000 lower than in 1992 and almost 760,000 lower than in 1984.

So who has the most energized base for 2004?

Everybody except Simmons and O'Shea are from Chicago. Chico will try to lock in the Hispanic vote (he is of Mexican descent), which is not much more than 45,000 votes statewide, and appeal to white liberals; many of the 2002 supporters of former Chicago schools' chief executive officer Paul Vallas, who ran for governor, are behind Chico.

Pappas and Washington are the only women in the field; Pappas has run countywide twice, has financial support from the Greek-American community (which backed Vallas in 2002), is a boisterous campaigner, and will run well among suburban women and Lakefront liberals.

Hynes is the son of former county assessor and 19th Ward Committeeman Tom Hynes. He has run twice statewide, and he won decisively both times, but he is hardly a household name. Hynes' base is the Southwest Side.

Hull, who sold his brokerage firm to Goldman Sachs in 1999 for $531 million, has pledged to spend $40 million of his wealth to win.

Simmons, from Madison County, which encompasses East Saint Louis, has pledged to spend at least $15 million, or "as much as is necessary," to win. As the only major Downstater, Simmons, if he spends lavishly and drives home the same socially conservative message (pro-gun rights, anti-abortion) that propelled Downstater Glenn Poshard to the governor's nomination in 1998, could win the bulk of the Downstate vote.

Quinn is the best known, having run statewide in 1986, 1990, 1994, 1996, 1998 and 2002, winning twice. He won't raise much money, but if voters want a familiar face, he's it.

The early outlook: Six candidates have a geographic or gender or racial niche in the field: Hynes, Obama, Pappas, Chico and Simmons. Quinn and Hynes have run statewide before, and they are the best known. Hull is 2004's version of Al Hofeld, who spent his millions pounding on Dixon in 1992, enabling Braun to win. Hull needs to define himself and to associate himself with some salient issue. Hofeld never succeeded in doing so in 1992, and he spent his money negatively. Hull might do likewise, tearing down Hynes and Quinn, the frontrunners.

My prediction: Obama's base is solid at 30 percent. Pappas and Hynes have the most room to grow, but they likely will max out at about 25 percent each. Hull will be fighting for liberal and suburban votes, which hurts Pappas. Quinn and Hynes will compete for the Chicago white ethnic and nonliberal suburban vote. Hynes will compete with Simmons for the Downstate vote, and he expects the endorsement of Poshard. Simmons will not be 2002's Poshard. Hull will be 2004's "sap of the year," spending more than $20 million and finishing almost last.

Turnout on March 16 will not be heavy. By then, 33 states will already have held their caucus or presidential primary, and the nominee will be obvious. So it comes down to which candidate can motivate his or her base. Turnout will be under 800,000.

Black voters are not particularly enraged with the Bush Administration (or with local Democrats Rich Daley or Rod Blagojevich), so they won't stampede to the polls. Nevertheless, Obama is worth about 200,000 votes -- far fewer than the Burris, Jackson or Moseley Braun totals, but just enough to win. The ubiquitous Quinn is worth about 125,000. Pappas will garner about 135,000 votes, and Hynes about 110,000. That leaves 200,000, of which Simmons will amass about 105,000, Hull fewer than 60,000, Chico 55,000, and the rest 10,000.

If Quinn doesn't run, the bulk of his vote probably would go to Hynes. Right now, the Republicans are fervently hoping that Quinn joins the 2004 jungle primary, thereby ensuring that Obama is nominated.