January 1, 2003
JAKES' "BLACK AGENDA" INSURES HUGE DALEY WIN
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
In any political campaign, the message is only as credible as the messenger. In the 2003 Chicago mayoral race, the Reverend Paul Jakes' "black agenda" message already has fatally poisoned his fledgling campaign and has undermined his credibility as a messenger.
The upcoming mayoral race should be a referendum on the 14-year tenure of Mayor Rich Daley. After all, should not incumbent performance be what voters address? But Jakes, the pastor of Old Saint Paul Baptist Church, has the boneheaded notion that the way to beat Daley is get 100 percent of the black vote while ignoring (if not antagonizing) the white and Hispanic vote. Is he not aware that only 37 percent of the city's population is black and that blacks amount to barely a third of the actual voters?
Taking a cue from Democratic presidential candidate Al Sharpton, Jakes is running a two-pronged campaign: First, he is making outrageous allegations about Daley, so as to generate some publicity -- at the cost of his credibility. And second, his blacks-first theme is designed to solidify his black voter base and to make him a future political player. The campaign has barely begun, but Jakes already has accused Daley of being a "dictator," demanded the firing of police superintendent Terry Hilliard (who is black) because of "rampant crime," pledged to empanel an "independent" board to review "police brutality" and misconduct, advocated a 34 percent black share of city jobs and contracts, promised to oust school superintendent Arne Duncan because he's "unproductive," and committed himself, as mayor, to build more low-income CHA housing.
At this rate, Jakes' share of the white vote will be zero by Feb. 25. Daley must be pinching himself to see if he is dreaming.
When the Illinois General Assembly abolished partisan Chicago mayoral elections in 1997, it set the ballot signature requirement at 25,000. At that time, 25,000 was the number required to run for mayor as an independent or as a third-party nominee. Jakes filed a lawsuit to contest that requirement as being onerous and excessive. But then Jakes filed just over 25,000 signatures, and Daley's operatives are not challenging him. That means Jakes will be on the ballot -- which is what Daley wants. And that means Jakes' "black agenda" will be the issue, not Daley. While Jakes traipses around the city slamming Daley as "King Richard," he just aggravates white and Hispanic voters and runs up Daley's numbers.
A credible black candidate, such as U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2), would have the smarts to run a campaign for mayor that would involve coalition-building, with an attempt to peel off white and Hispanic votes in protest against Daley. Jakes is actually doing the opposite: he is actually "peeling on" votes for the mayor. The only question is how big Daley will win.
In addition to Jakes, there will be three other black candidates on the mayoral ballot: the Reverend Joseph McAfee, Patricia McAllister and Robert Floid Plump. Daley got 72 percent of the vote in the 1999 mayoral race against U.S. Representative Bobby Rush (D-1); this year he's likely to exceed 80 percent.
Chicago has 20 black-majority wards, which are represented by 19 black aldermen and one white alderman (the 18th Ward's Tom Murphy). Even though in the 2000 census the black share of the city's population shrank, and the Hispanic share grew, no African-American ward was eliminated; however, several African-American wards saw their Hispanic population increase substantially. As in the past, a black mayoral contender needs a slew of hotly contested aldermanic races to precipitate a heavy black turnout, but that is not likely to occur.
At the close of filing, a total of 147 candidates filed in the 20 predominantly black wards, but as of Dec. 23, the closing date for challenges to nominating petitions, 113 of those candidates faced objections. Virtually every elected black incumbent, many of whom have been quite supportive of Daley, is favored to win, but two Daley appointees -- in the 17th and 37th wards -- will have tough races. Here's a look at key contests:
South Side: Now that the titanic battle between the Jacksons (Jesse and Jesse Jr.) and the Shaw Brothers (Robert and William) has been decided, and the Reverend James Meeks (backed by the Jacksons) has ousted William Shaw from the state Senate, Far South Side politics will cool. In the 9th Ward, a seat once held by Robert Shaw, incumbent Anthony Beale (who is with the Jacksons) has nine opponents, and all nine are being challenged. The Shaws seem to have been chastised, and they are not involved. Beale will win easily, against whoever stays on the ballot. Ditto in the 34th Ward, where pro-Daley incumbent Carrie Austin has six foes, and all are being challenged; she will win easily. In the 2nd Ward, where Rush (the Democratic ward committeeman) has been feuding with incumbent Madeline Haithcock, the congressman may get his revenge. Eight candidates filed, and Haithcock is challenging six. The most credible are Galen McGee, Willie May and Bobby Morris, a police officer. If Haithcock gets forced into an April runoff, she could lose.
The ever-obnoxious Dorothy Tillman (3rd) has moderated her "black agenda" rhetoric, and she has been surprisingly supportive of the mayor. Tillman's ward is now almost a quarter Hispanic, taking in 47th Street and the Back-of-the-Yards. Tillman has four black foes, and she is challenging three of them. But Alderman Ray Frias (12th), from the nearby Hispanic-majority 12th Ward, has sent his workers into the 3rd Ward's Hispanic areas on behalf of Pat Dowell, a black woman. If Frias can persuade Hispanic voters to back Dowell, she could beat Tillman.
In the 6th Ward, once represented by Gene Sawyer (who became mayor in 1987, after Harold Washington's death), Daley appointed Freddrenna Lyle to replace John Steele, who became a judge in 1998. Lyle won in 1999 with 59 percent of the vote, and she faces five foes in 2003 (she is challenging two). The most formidable foe is Eli Washington, a former aide to Steele and the president of a local Christian academy PTA. Lyle has not entrenched herself, and she could lose.
In other South Side races, incumbents Bill Beavers (7th), Leslie Hairston (5th), Toni Preckwinkle (4th) and Todd Stroger (8th) -- the son of Cook County Board President John Stroger -- will win overwhelmingly. In the 15th Ward, incumbent Ted Thomas faces 10 opponents, and he is challenging all of them. His most imposing foe is former Chicago Bulls star Bob Love. But Love may not have lived in the ward for the requisite 1 year before filing. Thomas won the 1999 runoff with 56 percent of the vote, and he will have problems if he can't knock Love off the ballot. In the 17th Ward, open after Daley appointed incumbent Terry Peterson to run the Chicago Housing Authority, the mayor appointed Latasha Thomas to replace him. All six Thomas foes are being challenged, and Thomas should prevail in the election. In the 20th Ward, pro-Daley incumbent Arenda Troutman has three credible foes: Howard Kenner, Donna Ramey and Lydia Watts; she could lose in a runoff. In the 65 percent black 18th Ward, Murphy faces a tough foe in Lavese Smith, but he should win again. In the 16th Ward, where streets gangs are a major factor, pro-Daley incumbent Shirley Coleman beat Hal Baskin for the second time in 1999. Baskin is trying yet again, and he could be helped by the candidacy of Joann Thompson, who will siphon votes from Coleman.
West Side: To succeed in this area, any black candidate needs to forge close ties to the area churches (and their ministers, who control votes), to the street gangs (who run neighborhoods and get out the vote), and to the social service agencies (because so many constituents receive some government benefit), and that candidate needs to raise money. The most combustible race is in the 29th Ward, where incumbent Ike Carothers is going up against the Jacksons, who are backing the Reverend Marshall Hatch. Carothers beat U.S. Representative Danny Davis (D-7), a former alderman, for ward committeeman in 2000, and Davis is close to the Jacksons. Carothers is favored.
Pro-Daley incumbents Ed Smith (28th) and Walter Burnett (27th) will win again, as should incumbent Leonard DeVille in the 21st Ward, whom Daley appointed to the seat in 1997 after the conviction of Alderman Jesse Evans. Evans is now out of prison, and he is running for his old job; the other major contender is Howard Brookins, who got 14 percent of the vote in 1999. DeVille will win. In the 24th Ward, incumbent Mike Chandler, another Daley appointee, won in 1999 with 77 percent, but he faces nine foes (and is challenging seven of them). Chandler should win.
That leaves the Austin-area 37th Ward, the seat to which Daley appointed Emma Mitts in 2001 after incumbent Percy Giles' conviction for bribe-taking in the "Silver Shovel" probe. Mitts then beat Giles' son, Cedric, in a special election. She faces 10 foes in 2003, and she is challenging all 10. She will beat whoever stays on the ballot.