December 4, 2002
HERE'S "RUSS AWARDS" FOR 2002 POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
There are the Oscars, the Emmys and a myriad of obscure awards for performers in various public endeavors. Beginning with 2002, and every election year hereafter, this column will bestow awards for political achievement upon local and statewide politicians.
The award could be called the "Russ Stewart's Analysis and Opinion and Nadig Newspapers' Political Achievement Award." That's a mouthful. Or it could be contracted to an acronym: The RSAONNPAA Award. That's neither rememberable nor catchy. So, in the interest of brevity, and with the utmost humility, here are the first annual Illinois "Russ Awards":
The Best Campaigner Award (Election): The undisputed winner is Republican state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20), who overcame huge odds to decisively defeat fellow incumbent Bob Bugielski on Nov. 5. Remapped into what was designed to be a Democratic district, McAuliffe nevertheless triumphed with 54 percent of the vote. McAuliffe, age 38, was the hungrier and the much more energetic of the two contenders, despite being outspent by the Democrat. Bugielski relied on Democratic precinct captains; McAuliffe, beginning last April, knocked on nearly 10,000 doors and, along with Alderman Brian Doherty, canvassed every precinct in the 41st Ward. Every day, from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m., McAuliffe worked precincts. Bugielski, by contrast, showed up only at staged events and did no in-precinct work. In addition, McAuliffe's mailings eviscerated Bugielski, castigating him for his tax-hike votes and for living outside the district. Bugielski never countered, and he never went negative on McAuliffe. McAuliffe campaigned like he wanted the job. Bugielski, who had health problems, wanted it handed to him. Voters picked the guy who worked for it. The outlook: Now that McAuliffe's been elected to his fourth term, and now that the Democrats have ironclad control of the Illinois House, there's no reason for the Democrats to try to beat him in the future.
The Best Campaigner Award (Primary): Again, there's no dispute. Democrat Rahm Emanuel is the choice. Utterly unknown at the start of the primary campaign, Emanuel raised and spent almost $2 million, of which $1.2 million was allocated to major-media television and radio buys, with another $500,000 spent on a deluge of direct mailings. With no significant roots on the Northwest Side, Emanuel, who was a top White House aide to Bill Clinton, managed to make himself a top priority for local Democratic committeemen, and his heavy media buy -- which was fueled by a donor list he assembled during his stint in Washington -- made him well known and, therefore, an easy sell in the precincts. Emanuel campaigned hard, and he beat runner-up Nancy Kaszak by 11,058 votes. And he proved, quite conclusively, that the expenditure of $2 million in a congressional primary virtually guarantees a victory. The outlook: Emanuel's national fund-raising contacts make him a major player among Democrats in Washington. In his second term, Emanuel will likely be chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Mr. Serendipity Award: This award goes to Rod Blagojevich, whose campaign playbook to win the Illinois governorship reads like a fairy tale. In hindsight, everybody who could have blocked Blagojevich's path quite fortuitously got out of the way. Remember Bill Daley? Had he run, Blagojevich would have lost the primary. Remember Glenn Poshard, the 1998 nominee? Had he run, Blagojevich wouldn't have gotten the Downstate votes that keyed his win over Paul Vallas. Remember Vallas's aversion to flying, which kept him from campaigning Downstate? Blagojevich won the primary by just 25,469 votes, winning just 36.5 percent of the vote in a three-man race. And then the Republicans excoriated Jim Ryan in the primary, softening him up for the election. Taking nothing away from Blagojevich's extraordinary talent as a campaigner, and his persistence and energy, the new governor ran the right race at the right time. That's serendipity.
Worst Judgment Award: That is shared by the aforementioned Daley and Poshard. Had either run for governor, they'd have won.
Worst Campaign Award: Bugielski takes the prize. His whole premise was that he would have more precinct workers than McAuliffe. But workers have to sell a product, and Bugielski was poorly packaged. His fliers contained the usual litany of platitudes about cutting the costs of prescription drug, reducing class size and maintaining local "values." That was scant incentive to vote for him, while McAuliffe's negative onslaught defined Bugielski as the "taxman" and gave voters a huge reason to vote against him. Also, Bugielski did not use McAuliffe's one vulnerability: his support for the Human Rights Act, which prohibits employer discrimination against gays and lesbians. Had Bugielski gone negative on McAuliffe early, he could have deflected McAuliffe's later attacks. But Bugielski's campaign was run by Alderman Bill Banks (36th), whose philosophy was that an army of workers can sell any product. McAuliffe made that product unsalable, and that's why he won.
The Comeback Award: Pat Quinn, the state's next lieutenant governor, proved that defeat does not last forever. Quinn lost statewide primaries in 1986, 1996 and 1998 and a statewide election in 1994; he won once (for treasurer), in 1990. Now he's Blagojevich's number two, and he will have 4 years to travel the state, stirring up the Democratic base and looking for another office to run for. The lieutenant governor's office, historically, has been a springboard to oblivion. The past two occupants of that office, Bob Kustra and Corrine Wood, lost primary bids for senator and governor, respectively. George Ryan was the lieutenant governor under Jim Thompson (1982-90), but he ran for secretary of state, and that was his springboard to the governorship. Ditto for Neil Hartigan (1972-76), who thereafter became state attorney general, but who lost for governor in 1990. Quinn could run for U.S. senator in 2004. But Quinn's best option is to just stay put and hope that Blagojevich runs for president in 2008 and gets elected. Quinn would then ascend to the governorship.
The Missing In Action Award: Where have all the Northwest Side's (and Chicago's) Polish-American politicians gone? Down to defeat, that's where. Bugielski was the last man standing. He lost on Nov. 5, as did Aurie Pucinski, who sought an appellate court judgeship. In the March Democratic primary, Nancy Kaszak lost to Emanuel, Ted Lechowicz lost his Cook County Board seat, and Alderman Mike Wojcik lost a state Senate race. Wojcik's ward was dismembered, and his seat will go to a Hispanic. After Wojcik's departure next year, there won't be a single Polish-American office holder on the Northwest Side, and City Clerk Jim Laski, who is an occasional critic of Mayor Daley, may find himself bounced out of office next February. That would leave U.S. Representative Bill Lipinski (D-3) as the city's leading -- and only -- Polish office holder.
The Most Powerful Illinoisan Award: While Democrats crow about their statewide sweep, and total control of state government, they overlook the fact that the most powerful politician in Illinois is sitting in Washington, not in Springfield. That's U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, from Downstate Oswego. The party holding the White House has lost seats in 31 of the 33 midterm elections prior to 2002, and Republicans lost House seats in 1996, 1998 and 2000. But in 2002 the Republicans gained House seats and took back control of the U.S. Senate, and much of the credit goes to Hastert, who took over from Newt Gingrich in 1998. Unlike Gingrich, the low-key Hastert is not a polarizing figure. He takes care of business. He makes sure Illinois gets its fair share of pork. He raises millions of dollars for Republican campaigns. He makes sure that nothing too "extreme" gets passed. And he has access to the White House whenever he needs it. That's power. The Republicans have extended their control of the U.S. House through 2004, a decade-long hegemony. In 1994, few would have thought that possible. The record this century, for the Republicans, was 12 years, from 1918 to 1930. If President George Bush remains popular and wins a comfortable re-election in 2004, then the Republicans will keep the House and Hastert will remain as speaker through 2006 and probably beyond.