April 10, 2002
BUGIELSKI'S PRECINCT ARMY INSURES BIG WIN - DON'T MESS WITH THE 36TH WARD

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

That was the loud and clear message from the March 19 primary. Alderman Bill Banks’ 36th Ward Democratic Organization brought in a huge vote for Rod Blogojevich for governor (6,474 to Paul Vallas’ 4,163) and for Lisa Madigan for attorney general  (6,765 to John Schmidt’s 4,722). And, in the critical primary for state representative in the 20th District, the 36th Ward’s candidate, Bob Bugielski, smothered his opponents, getting 5,105 votes (69.3 percent) in the 36th Ward, which insured his districtwide victory with 10,754 votes (53.9 percent), to 5,444 (27.3 percent) for Frank Coconate, and 3,743 (18.8 percent) for Lou Giovannetti.

Bugielski, age 54, a 16-year incumbent, is a member of Banks’ organization. He actually lives outside the boundaries of the 20th District, in the Cragin area, but he chose to run there after the legislative remap was unveiled last November. That made him Banks’ top 2002 priority, since the committeeman wanted to insure that his organization kept both a state senator (Jim DeLeo) and a state representative.

The Democratic incumbent in the 20th District, Ralph Capparelli, chose to run in the new 19th District, so Bugielski filed for the seat. That is legal, as long as the incumbent is a resident of the new district by the time he takes his oath of office, which is next January.

Bugielski underwent quadruple bypass heart surgery in early January, and was rarely seen on the campaign trail thereafter. But it didn’t matter. His two opponents, Coconate, a city worker, and Giovannetti, a Lane Tech high school teacher, conducted vigorous campaigns, but ultimately split the non-Bugielski vote. In the lawn sign war, it was basically a draw between Coconate and Giovanetti in the 41st Ward, but Bugielski had twice as many signs as his foes in Norwood Park Township (Norridge and Harwood Heights) and in the 36th Ward, and had at least an equal amount in the 41st Ward.

But in the precinct war, and on election day, it was a runaway for Bugielski. In any contest among relative unknowns, the candidate who carries his base by bigger margin is the candidate who wins. Bugielski’s base is the 36th Ward; both Coconate and Giovannetti live in the 41st Ward. The new 20th District contains 125 precincts, of which 51 are in the 41st Ward, 26 are in Norwood Park Township, 35 are in the 36th Ward, five are in the 38th Ward, and the rest are scattered in suburban Niles and Maine townships.

As can be discerned from the adjoining vote chart, Bugielski clobbered his competition in his base, winning the 36th Ward with 69.3 percent, and beating Coconate by almost 4-1. To have had any chance of victory, Coconate needed to hold Bugielski’s 36th Ward margin to under 2-1, and needed to top Bugielski by more than 2-1 in the 41st Ward, his base.

That obviously didn’t happen. Bugielski got only 43.8 percent of the vote in the 41st Ward, but that was more than either Coconate (34.3 percent) or Giovannetti (21.8) received. Giovannetti, a first-time candidate, split the non-Bugielski, anti-organization vote in the 41st Ward, effectively sinking Coconate. Capparelli, the 41st Ward Democratic Committeeman, endorsed his pal Bugielski, and sent out mailings in support. But the ground operation in the 41st Ward was run by John Malatesta, a longtime Democratic operative who previously ran Mayor Rich Daley’s 41st Ward efforts; Malatesta had a small army of city workers at his command, and they scoured the precincts, identified and brought out the loyal (meaning controllable) party voters.

Likewise in Norwood Park Township, where Bugielski had just 47.3 percent, but that was almost double Coconate’s vote.

Coconate lambasted Giovannetti as a “shill,” a candidate put up by the 36th Ward forces to split his vote. Giovannetti denied the charge. But he did run a well-financed campaign, with three mailings and plenty of lawn signs. Did somebody help him out? Or was this financed on his teacher’s salary? That won’t be known until financial reports are filed in June with the state.

But, for Coconate, the backbreaker was primary day, on which Bugielski had over 1,000 workers throughout the district. Bugielski’s forces rented over 90 large panel trucks, each of which was festooned with huge Bugielski signs, and all of which were parked across from or near a polling place. Each polling place had two checkers (who sat inside, and marked off who voted), two outside workers (who handed out palm cards listing endorsed candidates, including Bugielski and Blagojevich), and two runners (who would drive voters to the polls, and knock on doors of non-voters during the day). Each outside poll worker had a cell phone, and would regularly report turnout to Banks’ headquarters, which had a phone bank operation ready to call voters who had not yet voted. Throughout the day, Banks’ forces had a fleet of cars and drivers at their disposal, ready to be dispatched to pick up voters and drive them to the polls.

“They spent over $25,000 on primary day,” moaned Coconate. “I couldn’t compete with that.”

Bugielski also had six districtwide mailings to all Democratic households, and three targeted mailings to senior citizens; Coconate had two mass mailings. As always, money plus manpower equals victory.

Now Bugielski must defeat Republican Mike McAuliffe, who is also a sitting state representative, and who had his home remapped into a suburban district. McAuliffe chose to run in the 20th District, which contains over 80 percent of his old 14th House District, and where his name is well-known. In November, he will have plenty of money and manpower, but he will lose unless he dramatically improves on Coconate’s formula, namely: Win the 41st Ward (where McAuliffe resides, is the Republican ward committeeman, and where he is allied with Alderman Brian Doherty) by 2-1, take Norwood Park Township by 60-40, and don’t lose by more than 65-35 in the 36th Ward.

Bugielski spent more than $250,000 on his primary race and, against two opponents, barely posted a majority (53.9 percent). Bugielski is now much better known. But he is definitely deficient in charisma, and his health will curtail his activities; the energetic McAuliffe will campaign rings around him, and will spend $200,000 to win the seat. The McAuliffe-Doherty organization has plenty of workers in the 41st Ward. But where will they get the 200 additional workers they need to cover the 36th Ward and Norwood Park Township?

So the tag team match is set for November: It will be Banks and Capparelli versus Doherty and McAuliffe. Malatesta will be back in the 41st Ward, using the Bugielski campaign to tune up his organization for Mayor Daley’s 2003 re-election campaign, and for a possible onslaught against Doherty, whose term also expires in February, 2003. Malatesta has been mentioned as a possible Doherty foe, and as a possible successor to Capparelli as Democratic Committeeman in 2004.

Malatesta’s job will be to keep the Doherty-McAuliffe precinct workers tied down in the 41st Ward, so that they won’t be able to invade the 36th Ward. His target is just 40 percent. If Bugielski gets 40 percent of the 41st Ward vote, then he beats McAuliffe districtwide.

My prediction: It’s looking more and more like a Democratic year in Illinois. And McAuliffe, who has no other Republican campaigns with which he can ally, is out there all by himself. He is a slight underdog, and could be swept out in a big Democratic tide.