Russ Stewart
Attorney at Law & Political Analyst

January 25, 2012 REPUBLICANS DOOMED TO DECADE-LONG MINORITY IN ILLINOIS SENATE It's progressing from bad to worse. The Illinois state Senate's beleaguered Republican minority may shrivel more in 2012. Democrats control the chamber 35-24, and the 2011 remap lumped 8 Republican senators in 4 districts, and created 6 new seats. But at least 3 Democrats have very tough races -- Kotowski, Sullivan and Forby. Of the 59 senators, 22 seats are Safe Democratic, 18 are Safe Republican, and 19 are "in play" to varying degrees in 2012. Outcomes range from 39-20 to 32-27-- but Democrats will still control the Senate for the decade.   full article...

January 18, 2012 MULLIGAN'S BOTCHED PETITIONS PORTEND HERCULEAN WRITE-IN EFFORT Rosemary Mulligan's botched nominating petitions, and her removal from the 3/20 Republican primary ballot, portend huge problems as she seeks her 11th term as state representative. Mulligan, Springfield's foremost abortion rights' champion, filed just 649 signatures, of which 320 were invalid. She now must wage a write-in campaign and get at least 500 votes (the petition signature threshold), or more than any other write-in aspirant. Democratic IL House Speaker recruited Des Plaines Mayor Marty Moylan (D) to run against Mulligan, and was prepared to spend $250,000 to elect him. But spending $25,000 to get a write-in "shill" nominated over Mulligan is a option. Blood feuds among Republicans in Maine Township have decimated the party. Mulligan is the township Republican committeeman, but has no ground game...no precinct workers. Mulligan's intra-party and inter-party enemies scent her demise. Moylan is favored to take the seat.   full article...

January 11, 2012 JESSE JR. IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY IN 2ND DISTRICT PRIMARY In Illinois' 2nd congressional district, which stretches 66.5 miles from Pershing Rd. in Chicago to Kankakee County's south border, black U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2) is in extreme jeopardy. In the 3/20 Democratic primary, 65% of the voters will be black, but "Junior's" flaws have eroded that base. There's the Blagojevich connection, where he allegedly tried to "buy" the Obama senate seat for $6 million. There's the affair with the blond hostess. There's the legion of black politicians who have scores to settle. Already black ministers and Pols are coalescing behind white ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson. She needs 35-38% of the black vote, and 75-80% of the white vote to win. An upset is in the wind. Bye-bye Jesse.   full article...

January 4, 2012 WALSH HAS "WIN-WIN" SITUATION IN 8TH DISTRICT RACE For controversial Tea Party U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh (R-8), opting to run for re-election in the new 8th District is a "win-win" situation. First, he avoids making enemies in a nasty 14th Dist. Republican primary. Second, he has been promised $3.5 million by Speaker Boehner (R). Third, his Democratic foe -- whether Tammy Duckworth or Raja Krishnamoorthi -- is an indelible, committed Obamacrat, and Walsh can make the election a referendum on Obama, not himself. Fourth, Walsh has designs on statewide office (governor or senator) in 2014, and his 2012 race will markedly elevate his visibility in the Chicago media market. And fifth, since Obama got 62% in the district in 2008, and will likely win it again in 2012, Walsh has a plausible excuse if he loses -- and will be a veritable political Goliath is he wins.   full article...