Russ Stewart
Attorney at Law & Political Analyst

February 3, 2010 "OBAMA NATION" HIBERNATION SPURS 2010 REPUBLICAN REBOUND The Obama Nation has gone into hibernation, which is prompting a Republican rejuvenation. That's a lot of alliteration. The "change we need" folks were nowhere apparent in recent state elections in Massachusetts, Virginia and New Jersey. On Jan. 19, Scott Brown (R) beat Martha Coakley (D) for Ted Kennedy's senate seat by 1,168,107-1,058,682. But Barack Obama got 1,904,097 votes in Nov. 2008, endorsed Coakley, and campaigned for her. Coakley got 845,415 fewer votes than Obama. John McCain got 1,108,854 votes in 2008, and Brown upped that by 59,253. Brown's win was not a rejection of Obama or his healthcare. It was simply a return to politics-as-usual. Brown got the Republican base vote, and the Democratic vote was down by 44%. Similar situations arose in the governorship contests in VA and NJ. The Republican base voted, and the Democratic base didn't. 2010 looks like a "wave" election, with massive party turnover. Republicans could gain 6-8 US Senate seats and 30-40 US House seats. And that will mean congressional gridlock during the last two years of Obama's term. Clearly, Obama has not fulfilled the exuberant, exorbitant expectations of the Obama Nation.    full article...

January 27, 2010 HYNES, HOFFMAN, PRECKWINKLE, SEALS SURGE IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES My predictions: 20%, Hynes, Hoffman, Preckwinkle and Seals. If they're nominated on Feb. 2, Illinois won't be a Republican blow-out in November. Statewide turnout will be just 20%, or about 850,000. In the governor's race, Dan Hynes' TV ad featuring Harold Washington has been devastating. If the black vote breaks evenly for Gov. Quinn and Hynes, then Hynes wins. Governor Jello's support is now hemorrhaging. Hynes will win 430,000-420,000. In the US Senate race, Alexi Giannoulias is dropping like a rock. All the contenders are liberals. And all have flaws. But David Hoffman, Chicago's former IG, has the momentum, while Cheryle Jackson has not locked up black support. Hoffman wins 298,000 to 272,000 to 227,000. Toni Preckwinkle is the most competent and most electable Democrat. She's winning a piece of every Democratic constituency. Against incumbent Todd Stroger, Dorothy Brown and Terry O'Brien, her 40% (180,000 votes) is enough to triumph. In the North Shore 10th Dist., likeable loser Dan Seals is utilizing turf resentment in his race against Evanston-backed Julie Hamos. The credibility of the Jan/Bob Machine is on the line. Dem voters think Seals deserves a third shot, and many view Hamos as an interloper. Seals will win by 13,000-12,000.    full article...