Russ Stewart
Attorney at Law & Political Analyst

June 24, 2009 GRIM ECONOMIC FACTORS PROMPT HISPANIC "BROWNOUT" Hispanic political power in the Chicago area, already paltry, has suffered a "brownout." Hispanic population surged 24% from 2000 to 2007, but has peaked -- for three reasons: (1) The economic crisis has dampened immigration, especially from Mexico. With fewer jobs, the incentive to migrate has vanished. (2) The housing market paralysis has stalled demographic change. Hispanics were flooding into the Northwest Side. No longer. Most Chicago foreclosures are of Hispanics. (3) Migration of Hispanics is out of Chicago, to suburbs like Cicero-Berwyn, Franklin Park-Stone Park-Melrose Park, Bensenville-Addison, Waukegan, Aurora, Elgin, Des Plaines-Wheeling, and Bolingbrook-Romeoville. Chicago's Hispanic population is now around 750,000, but that's just 16% of the overall population -- not enough to influence the election of the next mayor. A Hispanic will likely keep the city clerk's job -- probably Ald. Ray Suarez (31st) -- if incumbent Miguel del Valle becomes city college chancellor. But the west side 26th Ward, held by Ald. Billy Ocasio until he quit to take a state job, could elect a white alderman in 2011. Joe Berrios has a good shot at county assessor in 2010. Two new Hispanic-leaning -- but not quite Hispanic-majority -- congressional districts could be created for 2012. A Hispanic could be elected lieutenant governor in 2010.    full article...

June 17, 2009 "DUAL-RUN" BAN IMPACTS 2010 COUNTY BOARD RACE Does Cook County Board President Todd Stroger have a trick up his proverbial sleeve? Of course, that presumes that the Toddler can first find his sleeve. The Cook County Board has passed a bill that bans a dual candidacy for both Board president and commissioner, effective 2010. That means ambitious commissioners like Forrest Claypool (D), Larry Suffredin (D), Tony Peraica (R) and Liz Gorman (R) face a painful career choice -- to wit: Stay put, or give up their commissioner job to run against Stroger for president? Past presidents John Stroger, George Dunne, John Duffy, Seymour Simon and Bill Erickson were also commissioners, and had a vote. The law has not yet been signed -- or vetoed -- by Stroger. It could be Todd's personal bailout plan. He could run for commissioner in the 14th CBD, and at least have a job after 2010. But then he couldn't run for CB pres, which he would lose anyway. In the 10th CBD, which takes in the Chicago Lakefront and part of the NW Side, Bridget Gainer was appointed to replace now-Congressman Mike Quigley. Quigley's former chief-of-staff, Kim Walz, may oppose Gainer in the 2010 Dem primary. That will be a tight race.    full article...

June 10, 2009 "MACHIAVELLIAN" MADIGAN PLOTS QUINN'S 2010 DEMISE It should be Governor "Patsy" Quinn, Mr. Gullible of Illinois. The Machiavellian Mike Madigan, speaker of the Illinois House, wants daughter Lisa Madigan to be governor, and the chaos in Springfield will do it. Note this: 44 Illinois Democratic state representatives were unopposed in 2008. Big Mike won't lose his 70-48 majority in 2010. This all about sandbagging Quinn and nominating Lisa Madigan. Aristotle said that the holders of offices should possess loyalty, capacity, and a sense of virtue and justice. None are apparent in Springfield. Machiavelli said that the citizenry is "inert" and the state is a "dynamic, amoral entity." That describes Illinois. Madigan has the ability to pass an income tax increase, but he won't do it, so as to defeat Quinn.    full article...

June 3, 2009 2010 "BATTLE OF TITANS": HOULIHAN V. BERRIOS FOR ASSESSOR Will Board of Review Commissioner (and Democratic county chairman) Joe Berrios challenge Cook County Assessor Jim Houlihan in the 2010 Democratic primary? It's looks likely. That would be a "Battle of Titans": The 19th Ward vs. Hispanics; Hynes vs. Madigan; past vs. future. Houlihan is a protégé of ex-Assessor Tom Hynes, and the 19th Ward wants to keep the "breadbasket" assessor's office, since it is a source of huge campaign contributions from property owners whose taxes are slashed. It's now Round III. In 2006, the assessor backed Brendan Houlihan (no relation) for Dist. One BOR commissioner, and he beat Maureen Murphy (R), a Berrios ally. That ousted Berrios as BOR chairman. In 2008, Houlihan tried to beat Berrios in the 2nd Dist. primary, and failed. Houlihan has $545,168 in his campaign kitty, while Berrios has $726,312. But Berrios is no "reformer." He gets a torrent of campaign cash from the property owners and attorneys who get satisfaction from the BOR, in the form of tax cuts. Hynes can't afford to lose the office. He needs to keep it until son Danny Hynes becomes governor or senator. The 2010 issue: Who can cut the taxes?    full article...