The Democrats proclaim themselves the party of diversity, embracing the notion that Americans, regardless of color, religion, national origin, or sexual orientation, should be included in the political process. And, of course, they deride the Republicans as being intolerant or exclusionary.

But Democrats in the North Shore 17th House District have absolutely no tolerance for another type of diversity. They’re targeting four-term incumbent Beth Coulson for defeat, due to the fact that she possesses the wrong “political orientation.” Coulson’s alleged sin is that she is a Republican – albeit a very liberal one – in a Democratic district

According to Michele Bromberg, Coulson’s 2004 Democratic opponent, the incumbent’s party affiliation means that Coulson “cannot and does not reflect the views and values of her constituents.” In fact, Bromberg’s whole campaign theme can be aptly summarized in five words: I am not a Republican.

Coulson, from Glenview, is understandably incensed by the charge that she lacks “Democratic values” – particularly when her Springfield voting record on social issues is barely distinguishable from that of a liberal Democrat. Coulson supports abortion rights, gay rights and gun control, opposed charter schools and locally-determined obscenity standards, and backed hikes in the state liquor tax, vehicle fees, and the state’s bonding authority. “I am an independent,” fumed Coulson, “and my voting record definitely puts me in the mainstream of opinion in the 17th District.”

Not surprisingly, Bromberg, a Skokie trustee, refused to give any specific instance where she disagreed with Coulson’s voting record, and refused to give any specific reasons to boot Coulson out of office. “I’m running a positive campaign,” she lamely replied, “and I will not criticize her.” Bromberg did, however, assert that Coulson “votes to the Republican side” on unspecified issues.

In 2002, Coulson was re-elected by a miniscule 666 votes, the smallest winning margin of any House Republican incumbent. The reason can be easily discerned from the 2000 election results in the district: Democrat Al Gore won with 60 percent. Add to that the 2001 Democratic-designed remap, which cut out 65 percent of Coulson’s old district, and added over 30 Skokie and 20 Wilmette precincts, and Coulson’s peril is obvious.

In addition, Bromberg is perceived as a much stronger candidate than 2002 nominee Pat Hughes. “She (Bromberg) fits the demographic” of the district, observed State Representative Lou Lang (D-16), from the adjacent Skokie-Lincolnwood district. In other words, Bromberg is a liberal Jewish Democratic woman – in a district with a heavy Jewish population in north and east Skokie, and western Wilmette, and in a district where Democrats are definitely in the majority. It is generally agreed that Hughes, a gentile male from Wilmette, lost in 2002 because female Jewish voters, given a choice between two gentiles, opted for the female (Coulson) over the male.

The 17th District is situated just west of Evanston, and stretches from Voltz Road in the north to Main Street (in Skokie) in the south, and west to Landwehr Road. The population is 105,248, of which 34 percent reside in Skokie (35 precincts), 26 percent in Glenview (45 precincts), 15 percent in Wilmette (30 precincts), six percent in Evanston (five precincts), and five percent or less each in Golf, Northfield, Northbrook, Morton Grove, Winnetka and Glencoe. There are a total of 125 precincts in the district.

Coulson, age 50, a former Northfield trustee, professes to be optimistic about her re-election prospects. She noted that, in 1996, when she won her first term, she beat Democrat Elaine Nekritz (now a state representative from an adjacent district) by 1,656 votes (53.2 percent), running well ahead of Bob Dole, who got 44.2 percent. Coulson was unopposed in 1998, and won comfortably in 2000 with 58.5 percent. “Once voters got to know me, they supported me,” Coulson said.

Nevertheless, Coulson rates as a slight underdog. Here’s why:

First, Coulson is trying to make the race a referendum on her tenure. “I’ve worked the new areas (of the district) hard over the past two years, and I’m much better known now than in 2002.” Bromberg is trying to make the race a referendum on party. Both candidates are listed fourth on the ballot, but atop Bromberg are John Kerry, Barack Obama, and Jan Schakowsky, while atop Coulson are George Bush, Alan Keyes and Kurt Eckhardt. Bromberg is wrapping herself in her party, while Coulson is doing everything possible to avoid her party label.

Second, Coulson is trying to showcase her “independent” record. Coulson voted against a ban on partial-birth abortions, and against parental notice prior to a minor’s abortion; she voted to mandate gun trigger locks, and to bar local governments from enacting laws which pre-empt state statutes governing the sale and possession of firearms; and she supported the Human Rights Act, which banned employment discrimination based on sexual orientation. She also opposed a bill to allow local governments to set their own obscenity standards.

On economic issues, Coulson voted more predictably Republican, supporting welfare reform, utility deregulation, HMO reform, teacher re-certification, dockside gambling, and allowing banks to sell insurance. Coulson opposed the governor’s 2005 budget of $54 billion because, she said, “I will not support spending more money for corrections and penal institutions when we cut the budget for mental health.”

Coulson presumes that voters are aware of her voting record, and appreciate it. That’s a mighty big presumption. But it’s not too late for Coulson to unleash a flurry of direct mail pieces to “educate” the voters.

Third, both candidates have solid political bases. Coulson is from Glenview, and will surely get 70 percent of the vote in those precincts, as well as sizeable majorities in Morton Grove and Winnetka. Bromberg, age 43, is from Skokie, where she is backed by the local Niles Township Democratic Organization, headed by Lang and Committeeman Cal Sutker. They will deploy hundreds of precinct workers, and Bromberg will win Skokie by at least 2-1, and also pile up large majorities in Evanston and Glencoe.

The battleground will be Wilmette, which has a large Jewish population. Hughes barely carried Wilmette in 2002. If Bromberg can amass better than 55 percent in Wilmette, then she’s the district-wide winner.

Fourth, Coulson’s precinct operation leaves much to be desired. She is relying on volunteers, and is not interfacing her campaign with the Republican organizations in Northfield and New Trier townships. North Shore residents may have strong political views, but they’re not much inclined to spend their Sunday afternoons or evenings walking through their precinct. That means Coulson will have only spotty precinct coverage. Bromberg will rely on the township Democratic organizations in Niles and Northfield, and will concentrate her volunteers in Skokie and Wilmette. The Bromberg strategy is to identify Democratic voters, and get them to the polls; the Coulson strategy is to hope that some of those Democrats vote for her.

And fifth, there’s the looming specter of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan. “It’s important to the (17th) district to have a representative who is in the majority,” emphasized Bromberg. That’s utter non-sense. If victorious, Bromberg will be in the Madigan Majority, and she will vote the way the House Democratic Caucus (which means Madigan) dictates. And the Madigan Majority, it will be recalled, is more conservative on budgetary and spending issues than the Democratic governor or the state Senate Democratic majority.

The Democrats have a 66-52 majority in the Illinois House, and Madigan controls the legislative agenda and distributes campaign cash and workers to worthy Democratic candidates. During the last two sessions, Madigan made sure that every hot-button social issue bill was killed in committee. And, this year, Madigan has made the 17th District a Tier-One contest, and will dispatch a dozen or more House Democratic staffers to work in the race, and will fund the Bromberg campaign with at least $75,000 in direct donations or mailing services.

Can Coulson turn that to her advantage? She could deploy some mail pieces characterizing Bromberg as “under Madigan’s thumb,” as contrasted with her “independent” voting record.

Coulson is very close to Tom Cross, the House Republican leader. She spent over $100,000 in both 2000 and 2002, and will spend a like amount in 2004, with the bulk coming from Springfield Republican sources. Coulson’s re-election is a top party priority.

My prediction: Coulson is the only Republican who could possibly win in the 17th District. But Bromberg, despite her insipidly issueless campaign, perfectly fits the district’s so-called demographic. Expect Michele “I’m-not-a-Republican” Bromberg to win narrowly.