Illinois' government is undeniably corrupt. "Pay to play" flourishes. Five of the state's last eight governors have been indicted, and three have been convicted and imprisoned. Rod Blagojevich will soon make it four. Every lever of power in Illinois is controlled by a Chicago Democrat.

State Senator Bill Brady (R-44) of Bloomington, the frontrunner for the 2010 Republican nomination for governor, has a simple solution to all of Illinois' ills: Just say "No" to Chicago . . . and "No" to lawyers . . . and "No" to Democrats.

In short, Brady argues, don't continue to let Chicagoans run Illinois. Elect a Downstater as governor. Elect a Republican as governor. Elect a non-lawyer as governor. Restore some sense of balance.

"My polling shows that corruption, not the state's fiscal crisis, is uppermost in voters' minds," Brady said. "And corruption will not abate as long as a clique of Chicago Democratic lawyers continue to run Illinois."

But Illinois' Republican establishment, ever the dunce when it comes to spotting trends, is utterly paranoid about Brady. They think he is too conservative to win, and that he somehow is a replica of the much-reviled Jim Oberweis. Brady has an unabrasive, unobnoxious and longstanding record as a social conservative, but the insiders' fear is that he will be nominated, demonized and defeated.

Brady, age 48, is a real estate broker, a home builder and a state legislator, having served in the Illinois Senate since 2002 and in the Illinois House for 8 years. He ran for governor in 2006, finishing third in the Republican primary, with 135,370 votes (18.4 percent of the total cast) in a turnout of 751,627. Of that number, 138,182 votes (18.4 percent) were cast in Chicago and Cook County, 283,475 (37.7 percent) in the six Collar Counties and 329,970 (43.9 percent) in the 95 Downstate counties. The bulk of Brady's vote (94,870) came from Downstate. Judy Baar Topinka won with 280,701 votes (38.2 percent of the total cast), and Oberweis had 233,576 votes (31.7 percent). A total of 90,704 of Oberweis' votes came from Downstate. The combined Oberweis-Brady vote was 370,946, or 50.2 percent of the total, and they also amassed a combined 185,574 Downstate vote, or 56.3 percent of that area's total.

"I will get a significant majority of the Downstate vote and at least a third of the Chicago-area vote," Brady predicted. "I will win." That translates into at least 300,000 votes, or just under 40 percent of the total cast.

Brady's five prospective 2010 primary foes in the fluid primary include state Senator Kirk Dillard (R-24) of Westmont, a former DuPage County Republican chairman, businessman Andy McKenna, the former state party chairman who got 97,238 votes (14.7 percent of the total) in the 2004 U.S. Senate primary, finishing fourth, DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom, businessman Adam Andrzejewski and political consultant Dan Proft. All are from Cook County or the Collar Counties. If they slice up that area's 421,657 primary vote, Brady wins.

State Senator Matt Murphy (R-27) of Palatine, who championed the secession of Cook County's western townships after the sales tax hike, was briefly a gubernatorial candidate, but he has withdrawn to run for lieutenant governor with McKenna. That prompted state Representative Dave Winters (R-68) to opt out of the race and run for reelection. Murphy faces Carbondale Mayor Brad Cole and attorney Don Tracy in the primary.

"They're all a bunch of nobodies," said one Republican political consultant of the field for governor. "They're bland. They're boring. They elicit no excitement. But that doesn't matter. If voters don't want a Democratic governor, then any Republican will win."

Any election featuring an incumbent is a referendum on that incumbent, and the recourse of a flawed incumbent is to attack and demonize his opponent, as Blagojevich did in 2006. The disgraced Blagojevich spent $17 million, to Topinka's $8 million. We now know how and why Blagojevich was able to assemble that kind of dough.

Beleaguered Democratic Governor Pat Quinn lacks both money and a message. Quinn must persuade voters that he is not incompetent, not that his Republican foe is an extremist or cretin. He faces a primary against state Comptroller Dan Hynes, who will pummel Quinn's stewardship. Expect Quinn to win, but not by much -- with 55 percent of the vote at best. And, unlike Blagojevich, Quinn hasn't mega-millions in his campaign fund, and he will spend $2 million in the primary. The 2010 election will be all about Quinn, and not about the Republican's shortcomings.

National Republican strategists, especially the Republican Governor's Association, are anxiously monitoring the November races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey, watching for a trend. In New Jersey, where corruption is endemic and epidemic, Democratic Governor Jon Corzine faces Chris Christie, a former U.S. attorney. Christie is focusing on corruption, avoiding fiscal and social issues. In Virginia, former Republican state attorney general Bob McDonnell's ancient college thesis on abortion has become an issue, and Democrat Creigh Deeds is attempting to portray his foe as an extremist. If Republicans don't win both races, it will be a bad omen for 2010.

Polling has been sporadic. A recent Dillard survey, which used push-polling techniques and which identified Dillard as "Governor (Jim) Edgar's former chief of staff," gave Dillard 23 percent, to 18 percent for Brady, 3.8 percent for Andrzejewski, 2.4 percent for Proft and 2.3 percent for Schillerstrom. More than 45 percent of the respondents were undecided.

An earlier RGA poll had Brady leading the pack by 2-1, with about 30 percent of the voters. That prompted an anxiety attack among the Illinois Republican establishment, who are convinced that only a moderate Republican, in the vein of Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar and 2010 U.S. Senate hopeful Mark Kirk, can win statewide.

Here are some early observations:

First, Brady is not a mean and angry conservative, like Oberweis. He does not want to roll back the clock, secede from reality, or deport immigrants. He is articulate, optimistic and likable. He opposes any state income tax hike. He wants to put caps on political contributions, cut the size of the Illinois Senate and House, restore multi-member districts and limit donations from no-bid contractors to $2,400.

"I've traveled the state for over five years," Brady said. "I may not be well known in the Chicago media market, but I'm well known Downstate." Brady said he expects to raise more than $2 million for the primary.

Second, the hard-core conservatives, who are anti-abortion, anti-gun control and anti-gay rights, are a major component of the Republican base. In 1992, against President George Bush, Pat Buchanan got 186,915 votes (22.5 percent of the total cast) in the Illinois presidential primary; in 1996 he got 186,177 votes (22.8 percent). Oberweis sought statewide office three times: He got 259,515 votes (31.5 percent of the total) in the 2002 U.S. Senate primary, finishing second in a turnout of 825,237, 155,794 votes (23.5 percent) in the 2004 U.S. Senate primary, finishing second in a turnout of 662,004, and 233,576 votes (31.7 percent) in the 2006 primary for governor, finishing second in a turnout of 735,810. That's an average of 216,295 votes for Oberweis per primary, or roughly a third of the turnout.

Where will that vote gravitate in 2010? Oberweis, of Aurora, spent more than $4 million of his personal resources in the three contests, targeting his base. None of the 2010 Cook County candidates has that self-funding base, name recognition or issue identification. The bulk of the Oberweis vote, especially Downstate, will go to Brady.

Third, the DuPage County vote is fractured. The county cast 98,230 Republican primary votes in 2006, 86,993 in 2004 and 126,767 in 2002. If both Dillard and Schillerstrom remain in the contest, they will split the 100,000-plus votes from their home turf. To win, Dillard needs Schillerstrom to withdraw, needs Edgar's endorsement, and needs 80 percent of the DuPage County vote.

Fourth, McKenna needs a rationale for his candidacy. He is part of a clique of rich white guys who run the party, and he can drop $2 million of his own money into the race. But he's running as the "Stop Brady" candidate, and the only way to stop Brady is to go negative and blast him as another Oberweis-type loser.

McKenna's base is Cook County. His name recognition is minimal, as he demonstrated in his abysmal 2004 primary bid for senator, when he pulled 97,238 votes (14.7 percent of the total). He has no identification with statewide issues. He needs to spend his money on a television barrage, hyping himself as the "change" candidate. He needs to do it soon, before Thanksgiving. And his votes come at the expense of Dillard, not Brady.

And fifth, the Republican "establishment" vote -- primarily from DuPage and Lake counties and the North Shore suburbs -- is at least 350,000 in a statewide primary. In 2006 Topinka and Ron Gidwitz got a combined 360,769 votes, but with Dillard, McKenna and Schillerstrom splitting that vote, none can win.

My early prediction: Brady will be the Republican nominee. And, absent any personal scandals, he will be Illinois' next governor.