To political strategists, the upcoming 2006 Democratic primary for Cook County Board president is déjà vu all over.

In 1994, when two white women, Aurie Pucinski and Maria Pappas, challenged black Commissioner John Stroger, the divided opposition ensured Stroger's victory with 47.1 percent of the vote. In 2006 two white men, county Commissioners Mike Quigley (D-10) and Forrest Claypool (D-12), are challenging Stroger, and both are running as reformers, with Quigley the anti-Daley candidate. Will they again divide the anti-Stroger vote?

Stroger, age 76, is a long-time ally of Mayor Rich Daley, and he is the mayor's most reliable political supporter in the black community. But, like Daley and his city scandals, Stroger must bear the brunt of criticism for ghost-payrolling scandals in the Cook County Forest Preserve District, as well as for alleged abuse and deaths at Provident Hospital and alleged inmate abuse at the Juvenile Court's detention center. A "reformer" could beat him, but two reformers opposing Stroger are one too many.

Stroger is well known, and he has spent the past 25 years building a patronage empire, parceling out thousands of the county's 26,000 jobs to blacks, many within the county health-care system. Every black committeeman is, to some extent, politically indebted to him, and Stroger will amass close to 90 percent of the black vote. Add to that the support of pro-Daley white committeemen, who can deliver upwards of 20 percent of the vote in their wards, and the obvious question is: With two white opponents, how can Stroger lose?

To those inclined toward conspiracies, the Claypool candidacy plausibly has the fingerprints of City Hall. After all, Claypool, age 48, was Daley's chief of staff from 1989 to 1991 and again in 1998, and from 1993 to 1998 he was the superintendent of the Chicago Park District. Claypool has raised $1 million for his campaign, the bulk from corporations and individuals who do business with both the city and the county.

Some cynical observers believe that Claypool is running solely to undermine Quigley's candidacy, dividing his support among whites and thereby aiding Stroger. Others detect an even grander conspiracy, with Stroger withdrawing at the last possible moment - which could be done even after the Dec. 19 filing deadline. That would give Claypool a clear shot at the nomination. He could still run as a reformer, but also be assured of the covert support of black and white pro-Daley committeemen.

Stroger has been in ill health in recent years, and he has been coy about his 2006 plans. He recently purchased a home in Florida, but he said this month that he'll "be on the battlefield" in 2006 and that he is "ready to go." It was thought that Stroger would retire if the party ensured that his son, Alderman Todd Stroger (8th), was slated for assessor. That's unlikely. "There will be a black candidate," Quigley said. "The only question is: Will it be (John) Stroger?"

Should Stroger announce his retirement, Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown would be certain to run. She would be favored, as she has a broad base among black voters and she proved her appeal by beating three white candidates in the 2000 clerk primary and a white former judge in the 2004 primary. Against two white men, she would win easily. Other possible black contenders include county Commissioners Jerry "Iceman" Butler, Earlean Collins and Bobbie Steele.

Brown will not run if Stroger does, although Collins, an outspoken Stroger critic, might. Two prominent white politicians, county Assessor Jim Houlihan and county Sheriff Mike Sheahan, are waiting in the wings, but neither can announce as long as Stroger appears to be running. If Stroger retired and either or both ran, along with Claypool and Quigley, Brown would be a cinch to win - even with Collins getting some of the West Side black vote. And Brown, if elected board president, would be a credible contender for mayor in 2007 or 2011.

So the goal underlying the maneuvering for 2006 is obvious: Keep Brown where she is. And that requires keeping Stroger where he is. Daley, going into a potentially difficult 2007 re-election campaign, must avoid any eruption of racial divisiveness in 2006, and he will need Stroger's patronage army in place and working for him in 2007.

Presuming a Stroger-Quigley-Claypool primary, these factors must be considered:

Base: In an off-year county Democratic primary, roughly 800,000 votes are cast, with about 500,000 from Chicago and 300,000 from the suburbs. The turnout was 658,230 in 1994, 642,860 in 1998 and 791,605 in 2002. The Chicago vote has been flat, actually decreasing from 525,752 in 1994 to 512,369 in 2002, while the suburban vote has climbed from 213,002 in 1994 to 279,236 in 2002. In Chicago, 230,464 votes came from the 20 black-majority wards in 2002; that amounts to close to 45 percent of the total city vote cast. In the suburbs, 72,725 votes came from the five black-majority townships in 2002; that amounts to almost a quarter of the total suburban turnout, and it doesn't even count the large black vote in Oak Park and Evanston.

In 1994 Stroger got 295,358 votes, of which 148,336 came from the black-majority Chicago wards. On the Northwest Side, he got 31 percent of the vote in the 45th Ward, 24.5 percent in the 38th Ward, 21 percent in both the 36th and 33rd Wards, 24 percent in the 39th Ward and 20.6 percent in Pucinski's home 41st Ward. If Stroger gets close to 300,000 votes in 2006, he's unbeatable, because either Claypool or Quigley would have to get 75 percent of the remaining 400,000 votes to top him.

Issues: Both Quigley and Claypool will be repetitious: "I was the first (commissioner) to advocate change and reform," said Quigley, who was elected in 1998. "I've been against tax increases, for ethics reform, for human rights and for environmental protection." Claypool dismisses Quigley as a windbag. "He talks about reform, but I've done it," he said, referring to his tenure as parks boss. "I took over a troubled $400 million government agency and solved its problems. I have a management track record. He doesn't." In response, Quigley is dismissive of Claypool: "He's Daley's candidate. Stroger is Daley's board president. If Claypool replaces him, nothing will change."

Claypool also rips Stroger, saying that "county government has been grossly mismanaged for 12 years" and that Stroger has made it a "patronage dumping ground."

Last year, when Stroger proposed an increase in the restaurant and hotel tax to balance the county's $3 billion budget, a majority of the commissioners rebelled. Of the 17 commissioners, 10 are occasionally to adamantly anti-Stroger, including the board's five Republicans and Democrats Quigley, Claypool, Collins, Larry Suffredin and Joan Murphy. But seven, including John Daley, are staunchly pro-Stroger.

The 2006 budget is projected to have a $300 million shortfall. How Stroger closes that gap will affect his re-election prospects.

Fund-raising: Claypool will raise and spend more than $2 million, and Stroger, if he runs, will spend more than $2.5 million. Quigley is limping along with barely $200,000. Claypool's money means he can define himself as the "reform" candidate.

Daley Connection: Claypool admits that Daley has "had many accomplishments" as mayor and that he has "done an awful lot of good" for Chicagoans, and he doesn't view his city service as a hindrance. "I'm an independent," he said. "I've opposed Stroger, whom Quigley claims is Daley's puppet. When I ran against Ted Lechowicz in 2002, John Daley and the local Democratic organizations supported my opponent."

Outlook: Pappas, who was Quigley's predecessor as commissioner from the Lakefront 10th County Board District from 1990 to 1998, got 150,489 votes (24 percent) when she ran for board president in 1994, and she ran first in only the 44th Ward, which happens to be Quigley's base. In fact, with both Pucinski and Pappas running, Stroger finished first in all the other Lakefront wards (42nd, 43rd, 46th, 48th and 49th), but he got only about 38 percent of the vote in each ward. To have any prospect of victory, Quigley needs at least 60 percent of the vote in his Lakefront base.

With both challengers pounding the incumbent, Stroger's vote is certain to shrivel in the predominantly white wards and suburbs. Claypool will be all over the media with his anti-Stroger ads, but he can't win if Quigley takes 30 percent or more of the white vote. Quigley's precinct organization will be exerting itself mightily along the Lakefront, and Quigley will have great appeal to gay and liberal voters, but he can't win if Claypool runs well in the outlying white ethnic wards and in the suburbs and takes half the white vote. Pucinski, with her well known name, running as the insiders' "outsider" in 1994, got 180,610 votes (28.9 percent). Claypool is the insiders' "outsider" for 2006.

My early prediction: With Daley being daily buffeted by revelations of scandals, Stroger's stewardship of the county looks almost pristine by comparison. The 2006 primary for board president will be over when Stroger utters two words: "I'm running."