Unlike New York City, Chicago has a Democratic mayor. Unlike New York City, Chicago's mayor is not term-limited. But, like New York City, Chicago's mayor is white. And, for the foreseeable future, both cities will have a succession of white mayors.

Demographic trends in both cities foretell the maintenance of the status quo: There has been a stabilization of the white population, a slight increase in the Hispanic population, and a slight decline in the black population. That means no black mayor in either city soon, if ever.

This is contrary to the demographic and racial projections of the 1960s and 1970s, which forecast black population majorities -- and black mayors -- in every major American urban metropolis by the 1980s or, at the latest, the 1990s. In fact, Chicago has had a black mayor for only 6 years in its history (1983 to 1989), and New York City for only 4 years in its history (1989 to 1993). It is possible that neither city will ever again have a black mayor.

According to the 2000 census, Chicago had a population of 2,896,016 people, of whom 44 percent (1,274,247) were racially categorized as white, 37 percent (1,071,525) as black and 19 percent (550,244) as Hispanic. Ten years earlier, Chicago's population was 2,783,726, and the white/black/Hispanic proportions were 42/39/20, while in 1970 the percentages were 59/33/7.

So several trends are clear: The city's white population declined by 15 percent -- roughly 650,000 people -- over three decades, but it actually increased between 1990 and 2000. The city's black population grew by just 3 percent -- roughly 100,000 people -- over three decades, but it actually declined between 1990 and 2000. And the city's Hispanic population surged by 12 percent -- growing from fewer than 150,000 people to more than 550,000 -- over three decades, but it also declined between 1990 and 2000. A large segment of the city's Hispanic population is moving to the suburbs.

These numbers represent a clear trend. For several decades, Chicago blacks have been moving from the West Side to the western suburbs and from the South Side to the southern suburbs. In the last decade, Hispanics have been moving from Logan Square northwestward to Belmont-Central, or further to western suburbs such as Stone Park, Melrose Park, Elmwood Park, Franklin Park, or even further into the DuPage County cities of Addison, Bensenville and Wood Dale, and also from the Lawndale/Little Village area southwestward into Stickney, Cicero and Berwyn.

And upscale suburban whites have been moving back into Chicago. Development both south of the Loop in Dearborn Park and west of the Loop around the medical center campus and the United Center has pushed out low-income blacks, while development in areas such as Wicker Park and Logan Square has pushed out low-income Hispanics. And the exploding condominium market along the north Lakefront, coupled with the rehabilitation of housing west of the lake, has made the broad corridor east of Western Avenue from the Loop to Evanston an enclave of affluent whites.

By 2010 Chicago's white population will surely exceed 48 percent of its total population, and by 2020 it will be a majority. Add to that the fact that voter registration and turnout among whites is at least equal to that of blacks, and that both are much higher than among Hispanics, and it makes it reasonable to conclude that Chicago will have a white mayor at least for a few more decades.

New York City, America's largest city, is often deemed a trendsetter in culture, business and fashion, but that doesn't extend to politics. The city, although overwhelmingly Democratic in voter registration (like Chicago), has had a Republican mayor for the last 11 years, and a Republican (sometimes running as a "fusion" candidate under the Republican and another minor party label) has won seven of the past 16 mayoral elections. In Chicago, by contrast, a Democrat has won the last 18 mayoral elections, with the last Republican victory occurring in 1927.

The 2005 New York City mayoral race may be a harbinger of future Chicago contests. New York, with a 2000 population of 8,008,278, is divided into five boroughs, Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island. Every borough elects a president, and every borough president aspires to be mayor. After the 2001 election, a Republican controlled Staten Island and a Hispanic Democrat controlled the Bronx. A white Jewish Democrat won in Brooklyn, despite a huge black population, and a black won in Queens and Manhattan, despite a large white population. New York's population is 42 percent white, 29 percent black and 20 percent Hispanic, primarily Puerto Rican, with the remainder in other categories.

The mayor is Mike Bloomberg, a billionaire Jewish businessman and a former liberal Democrat who switched parties to run for mayor in 2001. The election was conducted in the wrenching aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and Bloomberg scored an unexpected victory which was attributable to three factors. Bloomberg spent $70 million of his fortune, he was endorsed by outgoing Mayor Rudy Giuliani, whose popularity at the time was of near-mythic proportions, and the Democratic nominee, Mark Green, antagonized the city's black political leadership, and they encouraged black voters to abandon Green. Bloomberg got more than 20 percent of the black and Hispanic vote, and he prevailed over Green by a narrow 718,488-676,718 margin.

For 2005, three Democrats are running: city Comptroller William Thompson, who is black, former Bronx Borough president Fernando Ferrer, who is Puerto Rican and who lost the 2001 runoff to Green by 418,824-389,263, and City Council speaker Gifford Miller of Manhattan, who is white. A fourth candidate may be Anthony Weiner, a white Jewish congressman from Queens. If Weiner runs, he undercuts Miller.

The current consensus is that is that Bloomberg, competent but dull, does not measure up to the standard of past New York mayors, who have been exuberant and assertive, like Giuliani (1993-2001), Ed Koch (1977-89) and Fiorello LaGuardia (1937-49). And the further consensus is that Bloomberg, even if he spends another $70 million, would lose in 2005 to a white Democrat -- meaning Miller of Weiner.

Against either Thompson or Ferrer, however, Bloomberg likely would win a second term -- which would be his last, because New York mayors are now limited to two consecutive terms. Against a minority candidate, Bloomberg, of Manhattan, would get the bulk of that borough's white vote, along with the white vote in Queens and Staten Island. And he would get a significant minority vote, which would depend on his opponent. If it's Ferrer, a lot of blacks would not vote for a Puerto Rican candidate, and if it's Thompson, a lot of Hispanics would not vote for a black candidate.

However, if it's Miller or Weiner, minorities would not vote for a Republican, and Bloomberg would lose.

New York's 2005 mayoral primary is in late September, with a runoff in early October, barely a month before the election. That leaves little time for Democrats to unite.

Also, because Bloomberg, if re-elected, must leave office in 2009, a lot of ambitious Democrats and their supporters are hoping the Republican wins another term in 2005, so they will have a clear shot in 2009. But rumors persist that Giuliani, if he isn't on the Republican ticket for president or vice president in 2008, will seek to reclaim his old job in 2009. If he does, he'd be tough to beat.

New York's black-Hispanic rivalry is mirrored in Chicago, where both the black and Hispanic political establishments do not want to see a member of the other group as mayor, fearing that it would sink their future mayoral prospects.

The Illinois General Assembly abolished partisan balloting for mayoral elections in Chicago in 1997. So, unlike New York City, Cleveland and Philadelphia, which have Democrat-Republican partisan elections, Chicago now has nonpartisan elections like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Houston, Atlanta, New Orleans and Milwaukee. There will be a February 2007 primary for mayor, and if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff in April.

In the 2003 mayoral election, 465,730 votes were cast, with 239,980 coming from the 22 white-majority wards (51.5 percent), 181,241 coming from the 20 black-majority wards (38.9 percent), and 44,509 coming from the eight Hispanic-majority wards (9.5 percent). The 2003 turnout compares to 1,156,703 in 1983, 1,006,174 in 1989, 633,148 in 1991 and 596,516 in 1995. When it's a black-versus-white contest with a credible black contender, black voter turnout is extremely high.

Should Mayor Rich Daley retire in 2007, U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. or Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown would garner widespread black support in a mayoral primary, but a white candidate surely would make the runoff -- and likely win.

Given population projections, coupled with Chicago turnout statistics, it's almost a certainty that Chicago will have a white mayor through the end of this decade, and probably into the 2020s.