Concerning Jim Edgar, absence does indeed make the heart grow fonder. So does desperation.

Republican strategists in Illinois, and particularly leaders in the General Assembly, where the party is hopelessly mired in the minority, have conveniently forgotten the fact that Edgar made permanent the 1989 "surcharge," which raised the state income tax to 3 percent; and they've also forgotten that in 1997Edgar backed the idea of a "tax swap," which would have decreased property taxes while raising the state income tax to pay for increased education spending. Those are decidedly "un-Republican" ideas.

But they remember that 1994 was the Republicans' golden year, when Edgar was re-elected by a 914,468-vote margin and the party won every statewide office, took control of the Illinois House and kept control of the Illinois Senate. They hope Edgar will run for governor again, and that it will be deja vu in 2006.

Edgar, however, is doing his best rendition of Hamlet. One consequence is that the fractious Republican field for governor is frozen in place, awaiting his decision. Another is that party recruiting is on hold. Potential legislative candidates don't want to risk running if they might be saddled by somebody like Jim Oberweis as their gubernatorial candidate. And yet others fear that Edgar, if he runs, would be attacked as the "pro-tax hike" candidate

To date, the major story in Springfield is the potential implosion of the Senate's Republican minority. Seven GOP senators are retiring in 2006, of whom two have already resigned, and an eighth is vulnerable in a primary. The Democrats currently have a 32-27 majority, and that could very well balloon to 36-23 after the next election, making the Republicans irrelevant in the chamber. The seven retirees all represent suburban or Collar County districts, where a Republican should be an automatic victor. In fact, the Democratic-designed 2001 remap packed Republicans into those districts so as to make adjacent areas more Democratic.

But changing demographics, especially a surging Hispanic population, coupled with what could be nasty, ideological Republican primaries, give Democrats a chance to win one or more of those open seats. Here's the early outlook:

33rd District (Park Ridge, Des Plaines, Mount Prospect, Elk Grove Village, Rolling Meadows, part of Arlington Heights and a few 41st Ward precincts in Chicago): Incumbent Republican Dave Sullivan, who has served since 1998, resigned on Sept. 12, and the district's Republican township committeemen, representing Maine, Elk Grove and Wheeling townships, chose Cheryl Axley as Sullivan's replacement.

Axley, who is the treasurer of the Cook County Republican Party and also the Elk Grove Township Republican committeeman, had enough weighted votes to dictate the choice, namely, herself. In the 2004 Republican primary, Elk Grove cast about 42 percent of the votes, to Maine Township's 35 percent and Wheeling Township's 15 percent, with the remainder in the 41st Ward and Schaumburg Township. Axley made an alliance with Wheeling Township Committeeman Scott Siewert, and she prevailed.

But she will face a primary. Eric Leys of Park Ridge, the 25-year-old president of the Maine Township High School District 207Board of Education, will run against her. A Park Ridge Republican has held the seat for 30 of the past 40 years.

"He's the 'home boy,'" said Maine Township Supervisor Bob Dudycz of Leys.

Both Leys and Axley are conservatives, although Axley's positions on such social issues as abortion, gay rights and gun control are indistinct. Leys will run as a strong social conservative, and he emphasize educational issues, such as charter schools, vouchers and the reduction of school bureaucracies. If Axley emerges as a social liberal, the primary could get nasty. If not, geography will be paramount.

In 2001 Dudycz was instrumental in the dumping of Mark Thompson as township supervisor, and he won the job for himself. Thompson staged a comeback in 2002 by beating Dudycz's ally, Bill Darr, for committeeman, and in 2005 Dudycz topped Thompson by just 22 votes in a primary for supervisor.

Thompson is backing Axley for senator and is seeking re-election as committeeman. Bob Provenzano, the township road commissioner and a Dudycz ally, who Thompson fired as a precinct captain in 2003, is running for committeeman. The Dudycz-Provenzano group is backing Leys.

The early outlook: The turnout in the 2002 Republican primary was 14,810 in the suburbs and 971 in Chicago. Turnout was 10,194 in Maine Township and 6,820 in Elk Grove Township, but only about half of Maine Township is in the 33rd District, whereas about 75 percent of Elk Grove Township is in the district. Axley will have 6 months to advertise herself as the incumbent, and she will be the "home girl" in her area.

It would not be surprising to see Provenzano beat Thompson, but if the Thompson-Axley vote is anywhere near 40 percent in Maine Township, then Leys is a loser districtwide. Democrat Dan Kotowski, a liberal, could have a chance, depending on the degree of lingering Republican divisiveness.

27th District (Palatine, Inverness, Rolling Meadows, north Hoffman Estates, Arlington Heights, Prospect Heights and south Buffalo Grove): Incumbent Republican Wendell Jones, who has served since 1998, is retiring, and the situation in Palatine Township among Republicans is replete with animosity and intrigue. Republican Committeeman Gary Skoien, who also is the Cook County Republican chairman, has been purging everybody who is not under his thumb, and he is antagonistic toward Jones. With Jones retiring, Skoien is backing attorney Matt Murphy for the seat, but state Representative Sid Mathias, a social-issue liberal who was formerly mayor of Buffalo Grove, is likely to run, and that will spur a nasty and divisive primary.

Mathias is popular in his base, but he is unknown west of I-290. To win, Mathias will need a lot of moderate independents and Jews to vote in the Republican primary, and that is unlikely. If Mathias gives up his safe House seat and then loses to Murphy, a Democrat probably would win both the Senate race and Mathias' 53rd District; if Mathias prevails, he will easily beat the Democrat.

22nd District (Streamwood, south Hoffman Estates, Elgin, Carpentersville): Incumbent Republican Steve Rauschenberger, who has served since 1993 and who is running for governor, finished a respectable third in the 2004 U.S. Senate primary with 20.1 percent of the vote. The district has a growing Hispanic population, which will put this open seat in play.

Billie Roth, Streamwood's mayor for the past 16 years, is the probable Republican candidate, while the Democrats will field Juan Figueroa, an Elgin alderman. Roth is favored, but the race will be close. However, if Edgar runs, Rauschenberger may opt for another term.

42nd District (Aurora, parts of Kane, Kendall and Will counties and the western Joliet suburbs): Incumbent Republican Ed Petka, who has served since 1993, is running for a local judgeship. The Aurora part of his district is already represented by a Hispanic Democrat in the House. Possible Republican successors include Will County Commissioner Lee Goodson and Plainfield Township Supervisor John Argoudelis, but the early favorite is Methodist minister Doug Booth. If a hard-core conservative like Booth is nominated, Democrats would have a great chance to win the seat. Possible contenders are attorney Kathryn Maloney, Aurora Township Supervisor Jim Murphy and Aurora Township clerk Juan Thomas. The district is more than 35 percent Hispanic.

52nd District (Champaign, Urbana, Rantoul and Danville): Incumbent Republican Rick Winkel won a House seat in 1994, and he was elected senator in 2002 by just 620 votes. The area around the University of Illinois campus produces a large liberal vote, which nearly offsets the rural vote. Winkel is retiring in 2006, and Republicans will keep the seat only if Bill Black, the quirky but enormously popular 20-year state representative from Danville, who has always been an outspoken proponent of increased educational funding, runs. Otherwise, Democrat Todd Lee, who works for the governor's office, will likely take the district.

The safe Republican Senate seats of Peter Roskam (R-48) of Wheaton, who is running for Congress, and of Kay Wojcik (R-28) of Schaumburg, will be taken by, respectively, state Representatives Randy Hultgren and John Millner.

One imponderable is the district of 87-year-old Republican incumbent Adeline Jay Geo-Karis of Zion, who has served in the Senate since 1979 and in the House for the prior 6 years. Her 31st District includes the north portion of Lake County, stretching from Winthrop Harbor to Fox Lake and including Antioch, Lindenhurst, Round Lake Beach, Grayslake and Gurnee. Geo-Karis won re-election in 2002 with 69 percent of the vote, but she will be challenged in the 2006 primary by Warren Township Supervisor Suzanne Simpson. An upset is possible, and a Geo-Karis loss could aid the Democrats.

The bottom line: Republicans need to be focused in 2006, and that focus must be to beat Governor Rod Blagojevich. With Edgar as their nominee, Republicans will be unified and focused on beating the governor, and all other divisiveness and quarreling will diminish. With another nominee, that won't happen. What will happen is a further diminution of the Republican legislative minority.