In the pecking order of Chicago politics, an alderman is deemed to occupy a more powerful, lucrative and prestigious post than a state legislator. The former position pays $110,556 annually, and the latter pays $67,836.

Occupants of both posts are acclimatized to being under a thumb -- the mayor's in Chicago and the Democratic leadership's in Springfield. They're told how to vote.

After 18 years as the Northwest Side 41st Ward alderman, Republican Brian Doherty is rejecting that presumption and inviting a pay cut. He's seeking a thumbless pasture. With 17-year Democratic state Senator Jim DeLeo retiring in 2010, Doherty is running for the open 10th District seat, and he claims that he has been promised $500,000 in funding by Springfield Republican sources.

The Democrats have a veto-proof 37-22 Illinois Senate majority. If the Republicans win two Senate seats and the governorship and hold the Democrats fewer than 72 seats in the Illinois House, the Democrats cannot remap the Republicans into oblivion in 2011. The well known and popular Doherty, who has been an alderman since 1991, is viewed as the Republicans' only viable 10th District contender.

Doherty's Democratic opponent in the heavily Democratic district will be 38th Ward Democratic Committeeman Patti Jo Cullerton, known as "P.J" and a scion of the fabled "Cullerton Dynasty" which dates back to 1871, when Eddie Cullerton was elected an alderman from the West Side.

The 38th Ward was created in 1931, and a Cullerton or a Cullerton relation has been the alderman of the ward since 1935: P.J. Cullerton from 1935 until 1958, when he was elected assessor, his brother Willie Cullerton from 1958 until his death in 1973, his nephew Tom Cullerton from 1973 until his death in 1993, and Tom Allen, who is related to the "Cullerton Clan" by marriage, since 1993. P.J. Cullerton, who is Tom Cullerton's daughter, has been the ward's Democratic committeeman since 1993.

Area Democratic committeemen are set to meet in September to slate DeLeo's successor, and Cullerton's selection is a fait accompli. "If one of the committeemen wants it, he or she will get it," acknowledged Norwood Park Township Committeeman Robert Martwick, who was pushing his son, Rob Martwick, for the spot. Martwick, a township trustee, lost a 1996 state Senate race to Walter Dudycz and a 2002 Cook County Board race to Pete Silvestri. "She wants it, so she will get slated," said Martwick, who lamented that his son "deserves it."

DeLeo's 36th Ward, where outgoing Alderman Bill Banks is the Democratic committeeman, was pushing former ward sanitation superintendent John Donovan Jr. for the post.

The bell-shaped district, which was created in 2001 to elect a Democrat, encompasses all of the 41st, 36th, 38th and 45th wards and all of Rosemont, Norridge and Harwood Heights, plus a few precincts in the 29th Ward and Niles. It merged DeLeo's district with Dudycz's, and Dudycz retired. DeLeo, who has been a state senator since 1992, was elected without Republican opposition in 1992, 1996, 1998, 2002 and 2006; he was a state representative from 1984 to 1992. He is retiring, at age 58, at maximum pension, and he will make mega-bucks as a lobbyist for the Chicago entertainment industry. As of July 1 DeLeo had $703,566 in his campaign account. He's always had that kind of money, so no Republican bothered to oppose him.

"It will be World War III" in 2010, predicted Doherty, age 51, who has never gotten less than 70 percent of the vote in his reelection races. "The Democrats, if they are in control in 2011, will raise income taxes. I opposed every tax hike in the City Council. I will oppose every tax hike in Springfield."

"(Senate President John) Cullerton and the Democrats will spend whatever it takes to win the (10th District) seat, and P.J. will vote like she's told," Doherty said.

"Not true," retorts Cullerton, age 54, who is retired after working 25 years in the county assessor's office and as the executive assistant to the Cook County Forest Preserve District's general superintendent. "I will vote for what is right . . . for the people of my ward and district. (John Cullerton) will not tell me how to vote."

As detailed in the adjoining 2009 state Senate vote chart, every area senator (all Democrats), with the exception of Ira Silverstein, voted for a state income tax increase from 3 percent to 5 percent for individuals and a sales tax increase. Silverstein voted "present." Had DeLeo run in 2010, that vote would have been a huge issue.

P.J. Cullerton has some serious baggage. First, she has never run for office outside the 38th Ward. Second, she worked for county government under the politically toxic Todd Stroger. Third, she is not a charismatic candidate. And fourth, her husband, Kevin O'Brien, an assessor's employee, is facing drug charges for cocaine possession while at work. "He's in recovery," said Cullerton of her husband. "This will be resolved shortly." She can expect a torrent of negativity.

However, Cullerton she has several advantages. First, the Cullerton name is legendary. Second, she is closely allied with 45th Ward Alderman Pat Levar, and she was his campaign coordinator in 2007 and 2003. That means that Levar, as a ward committeeman, will exert a Herculean effort on Cullerton's behalf. And third, John Cullerton will spend lavishly to keep the DeLeo seat.

There is another dynamic in play: The unofficial 41st Ward/36th Ward nonaggression pact between Doherty, state Representatives Mike McAuliffe (R-20) and Skip Saviano (R-77), and county Commissioner Pete Silvestri, and Democrats Banks and DeLeo. Will the 36th Ward Democrats "cut" Cullerton, as they have in past elections for Democratic opponents of McAuliffe and Silvestri?

Back in 2002, when McAuliffe squared off against the 36th Ward's Bob Bugielski, the "Banks/DeLeo Machine," which can deploy three to five workers in every precinct, sent an army north to the 41st Ward, without success. McAuliffe's vote in the north end of the district eclipsed Bugielski's south end vote. Since then McAuliffe has run even in the 36th Ward, and that was with the collusion of Banks and DeLeo.

"I have appeal to 'Reagan Democrats,'" Doherty said. "I can win." Doherty said he would run for reelection as alderman in 2011 if he loses in 2010. If he is elected senator, he would not have to resign as alderman until January of 2011; the mayor would name his replacement.

The still well known Dudycz is a possible 2011 candidate for alderman, as is the alderman's brother, Bill Doherty. The ward's Democratic committeeman, Mary O'Connor, is set to run.

The bottom line: To win, Cullerton must keep Doherty below 60 percent of the vote in the 41st Ward and Norwood Park Township, below 45 percent in the 36th Ward and Niles, and below 40 percent in the 38th and 45th wards. That's a problematic presumption, and it would give Cullerton only a bare majority.

My prediction: 2010 is shaping up as a Republican year, and there will be a lot of tax-hiking Democrats -- such as Pat Quinn and Stroger -- on the ballot. Doherty is the better campaigner, he will have more money than Cullerton, and he will bury the district in mailers proclaiming himself to be "anti-tax" and ripping Cullerton as a "Stroger Stooge." Doherty is favored.

Cullerton's 37-22 majority in Springfield is in serious jeopardy, and the number of seats held by the Democrats may dwindle to 32 or 33. As depicted in the adjoining roll call chart, Cullerton "sanitizes" every vote, attempting to minimize political risk. But that's impossible. The majority voted to raise the income tax, sales tax, liquor tax and vehicle fees and to sell billions in new bonds to pay for current expenses while spending wildly. Those votes will be used by the Republicans to blast the Democratic incumbents.

Included in the vote chart are Democratic incumbents Cullerton, Silverstein, DeLeo, Heather Steans, Willie Delgado and Iris Martinez, all of Chicago, Don Harmon of Oak Park and Dan Kotowski of Park Ridge. All voted with Cullerton more than 90 percent of the time. The seats of DeLeo, Steans and Delgado are up in 2010.