The good news for Republican U.S. Representative Bob Dold is that Barack Obama won't carry the remapped North Shore 10th U.S. House District with 61 percent of the vote, as he did in 2008. The bad news is that Obama will win it in November with 57 to 59 percent of the vote.

That means that Obama's 2008 plurality of 67,030 votes over John McCain will be in the realm of 60,000 votes over Mitt Romney.

The good news for Dold is that his predecessor, U.S. Senator Mark Kirk, withstood the 2008 Obama landslide, with an incredible 23 percent of the Obama voters (about 41,000) also voting for Kirk. The bad news is that Dold isn't Kirk.

Dold has only been in office for 2 years, contrasted with Kirk's 8 years in 2008. Dold hasn't yet entrenched himself, is still relatively unknown, hasn't developed an indelible "independent" image, and won't win the support of one in five 2012 Obama voters.

The good news for Dold is that 2012 will not be a poisonous anti-Republican or anti-incumbent year, as was 2008 and 2006, but that's also the bad news. Dold needs a poisonous anti-Democratic and anti-Obama year.

Dold was elected in 2010 atop an anti-Obama wave, as independent voters broke heavily against the president and the Democrats, and Republican turnout was heavy. This is not a "wave" election. Romney will not run as dismally as McCain did in the district, but he will not amass the 45 percent of the vote that Dold needs to be competitive.

The good news for Dold is that his Democratic opponent, Deerfield businessman Brad Schneider, is bland, boring, largely unknown and running an insipid and uninspiring campaign. The bad news is that blandness and insipidity are suddenly fashionable on the North Shore.

Schneider's campaign theme, according to his media spokesperson, is that if elected, he will "work together (with other members), regardless of party, to get things done." That seems to be striking a responsive chord. After a decade of tumultuous elections, with $8 million spent in 2008 and $5.5 million spent in 2006, voters are fatigued and disillusioned. Kirk postured as a fiscal conservative and a social liberal, accurately reflecting sentiment in this upscale district with a significant Jewish population, comprising 18 to 20 percent of the registered voters.

Democrat Dan Seals, who is of biracial heritage, was well known, stirred fervor -- at least in 2006 and 2008 -- and ran as an unabashed liberal. In 2006 he spent $1.8 million, pounded Kirk as a pro-Bush toady, and got 46.5 percent of the vote. In 2008 Seals literally hugged Obama, again tied Kirk to the reviled Bush, spent $3.6 million, and got 47.4 percent of the vote, running an astounding 42,895 votes behind Obama in the district. In 2010, with Kirk running statewide, Seals ran again, but he had worn out his welcome, and he engendered no enthusiasm. He embraced "Obamacare," avoided any commitment to be a robotic Obama/Pelosi congressional vote, tried to portray Dold as a Tea Party "extremist," and lost to Dold by 4,651 votes, getting 48.9 percent of the vote. Each candidate spent $2.9 million.

For this election, Schneider and his Democratic handlers have accurately drawn the conclusion that voters want productivity, not combativeness or independence. They don't want a congressman who will vote in lockstep with the pro-Obama (or anti-Romney, if he wins) Democrats, or with the anti-Obama or pro-Romney Republicans. A Republican House majority in the 113th Congress is certain, which means gridlock if Obama is re-elected. If Schneider wins, he would be one of 435 House members, and in the minority.

So the contrast, if subtle, is clear: If he is re-elected, Dold will occasionally dissent from the Republican Majority, as Kirk did, thereby demonstrating his "independence" but accomplishing nothing. If Schneider is elected, he will eschew chronic partisanship, occasionally defect from the Nancy Pelosi-led Democratic minority and vote with the Republicans on some issues, perhaps accomplishing something. Whether that includes entitlement reform is unclear.

The good news for Dold is that he has avoided any Tea Party association. He is pro-choice on abortion, and he supported funding for Planned Parenthood. He is not polarizing, not ideological, not confrontational, and not bombastic, like his colleague, U.S. Representative Joe Walsh (R-8). But the bad news is that he is a Republican. The Schneider campaign charges that Dold has "voted with the Republican majority on every key piece of legislation," including repealing "Obamacare," auditing the Federal Reserve, civil contempt of the attorney general, the $3.5 trillion budget, the payroll tax, the debt reduction of $2.1 trillion, the balanced budget, the Patriot Act extension, the National Public Radio funding cut and House salary cuts.

The catastrophically bad news for Dold is that the Democratic-crafted congressional remap made the new 10th District generically, perhaps hopelessly, Democratic. "No Republican is going to win that district," predicted Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin (D-13) of Evanston. "It's just too Democratic."

Roughly 56 percent of the old district was in Cook County, and it took in Republican-leaning Inverness, Rolling Meadows, Wheeling, Arlington Heights, Prospect Heights and Mount Prospect, plus all of Glenview and Democratic-leaning Northbrook, Glencoe, Winnetka and Wilmette. In 2008 a total of 161,214 votes were cast in Cook County, which Kirk won by 16,498 votes, and 130,044 votes were cast in Lake County, which Seals won by 1,592 votes. In 2010 Dold won Cook County by 10,321 votes while Seals won Lake County by 5,670 votes.

 In the remapped 10th District, Lake County now casts 55 percent of the vote, with Schneider, who is Jewish, assured of solid majorities in Deerfield, Lincolnshire, Buffalo Grove and Highland Park, as well as in Democratic-leaning upscale towns such as Lake Forest and Lake Bluff, where Obama is strong and where Seals ran well. The remap, which was masterminded by the Springfield Democrats, chopped out the Republicans' Cook County base, which is basically everything west of Illinois Route 83 (Elmhurst Road); only Wheeling, Glenview, Northbrook, Glencoe, Winnetka and parts of Park Ridge, Morton Grove and Mount Prospect remain.

The old district took in the east half of Lake County, east of U.S. Route 45, along the Interstate 94 corridor, south of U.S. Route 20 (Belvidere Road). It now runs north of Waukegan to the Wisconsin line, absorbing working-class and Democratic Gurnee and Zion, and west to U.S. Route 12, absorbing Round Lake, Grayslake, Fox Lake, Gages Lake, Lake Villa and Lindenhurst -- all Republican-leaning areas, but where Dold is unknown.

Turnout in the old 10th District was 202,207 in 2006 (with Seals losing 107,929-94,278), 291,258 in 2008 (with Seals losing 153,082-138,176), and 215,231 in 2010 (with Seals losing 109,941-105,290). That averaged 112,581 votes for the Democrat and 123,650 votes for the Republican.

 Turnout in November will be about 275,000, and the Republican/Dold base has shrunk to barely 100,000. Obama will get around 160,000 votes. That means that to win, Dold needs one in five, or at least 30,000-plus, Obama voters to opt for him.

"There will be an Obama drop-off," said John McGovern, Dold's campaign manager, who predicted that Romney will get 45 percent of the vote in the district. McGovern said that Schneider, who won his March primary with 46.9 percent of the vote, has no special appeal, unlike Seals and 2000 candidate Lauren Beth Gash, who motivated their workers. "He's a cookie-cutter Democrat," McGovern said.

"The Democrats are energized," said Suffredin, who expects that a plethora of down-ballot state legislative races, including the Morrison-Friedman and Bush-Neal Illinois Senate races in Lake County and the Sente-Mathias Illinois House race in Buffalo Grove, will drive turnout. "Whoever supports those candidates, and whoever supports Obama, will vote for Schneider," Suffredin predicted.

"There is no Republican organization," another Democrat said. "Dold's on his own."

The good news for Dold is that, from 2011 through Sept. 30, he raised a hefty $2.9 million and had $2.1 million on hand. That means he can afford the pricey Chicago media market, and he spent almost $1 million during June and July on television ads hyping his "independence." The bad news is that the ad blitz may not have moved the numbers.

The most recent poll, paid for by the Democrats, had the race tied at 46-46. That's dubious. A June poll had the race at 39-39. Dold's campaign has released no polling data. In all likelihood, the race is probably 40-40 -- Dold versus a generic Democrat. It's an ominous sign when any incumbent is well under 50 percent.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a conundrum: How to intervene? They can't go positive. Schneider is devoid of charisma, and promising to "work with the Republicans" is not a vote getter. They can't piggyback on Obama, hyping an Obama-Schneider team, because 10th District voters do not want a lapdog as congressman. They can't go negative and tar Dold as a Tea Party "extremist," because he isn't. So expect an insipid hybrid: Dold is a "partisan Republican." Dold is "part of the problem" in Washington. "Let's work together."

None of Dold's mailers or ads mentions that he is a Republican. "I'm an independent" worked for Kirk, who got 53 percent of the vote in the district in 2010. Expect Kirk to give Dold a ringing endorsement.

My prediction: Had the Democrats nominated a more charismatic candidate, or a Jewish woman, Dold would be toast, but $3 million makes him competitive. In a turnout of 275,000, Schneider wins by 138,000-137,000.