There are three levels of incompetence: stupidity, idiocy and lunacy.

When Cook County's 80 Democratic committeemen on Sept. 11 refused to slate incumbent Todd Stroger as the party's candidate for Cook County Board president, they resoundingly demonstrated their competence.

With 23,383 county jobs and a $3 billion budget loaded with contracts which generate campaign contributions for an array of Democratic office holders at stake, it would have been stupid, idiotic and utter lunacy to slate the unpopular Stroger, whose persistent support of the sales tax hike makes him virtually certain to lose to a Republican in 2010.

"That sums it up," said one Northwest Side Democratic committeeman, who voted for no endorsement. "He's a loser. He's toxic. He can't win reelection. We want to keep a Democrat in the office."

A total of 1,091,008 ballots were cast in the 2008 Democratic primary. At slatemaking on Sept. 11, each committeeman had a weighted vote equal to the number of 2008 Democratic votes in his or her Chicago ward or suburban township, so a candidate needed 545,504 weighted votes to be slated. Stroger was supported by 24 of 80 committeemen, and he had barely 300,000 weighted votes.

The other aspirants -- Alderman Toni Preckwinkle (5th), U.S. Representative Danny Davis (D-7), Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown, who all are black, and Metropolitan Water Reclamation District President Terry O'Brien, who is white -- had even fewer votes than Stroger. Almost 60 percent of the committeemen voted for no endorsement and an open primary in which each organization can support whomever they choose.

"(The slatemakers) always back the incumbent," said Scott Sisek, who is managing Preckwinkle's campaign. Rejecting Stroger, he said, was a "huge embarrassment" to him, and it "shows how weak he is." The last sitting county board president to be dumped was Democrat Seymour Simon in 1966, and the last Republican to be elected to the post was Dick Ogilvie in 1966.

If the primary field consists of five contenders, whoever gets approximately 200,000 votes will win. The filing period begins on Oct. 26. Will Stroger's name identification and South Side black support enable him to get 33 percent of the vote? Will Preckwinkle's liberal, independent record and gender appeal to white liberals and women enable her to get 33 percent? Will O'Brien, as the sole credible white candidate, with an unblemished record at the water district, get over 65 percent of the white vote?

Any election featuring an incumbent is a referendum on that incumbent. The latest polls show Stroger's approval rating at around 10 percent.

Stroger twice vetoed a repeal of the sales tax increase, which raised $400 million, claiming it is needed to fund "essential services."  Yet most voters, especially white voters, have no need to utilize the county's health services (Stroger, Provident and Oak Forest hospitals and various health clinics), criminal justice services (County Jail and the courts) or the forest preserves. To them, the hike was nonessential.

Preckwinkle pledged an "incremental repeal" of the sales tax. Brown said she would make the county more efficient, with "no new taxes." Davis said it is "time for a change." O'Brien said a tax hike was the "wrong approach." They've all embraced the "I'm not Todd" mantra.

Here's a look at two relevant primaries:

2006: The late John Stroger, Todd Stroger's father, beat county Commissioner Forrest Claypool by 318,634-276,682, in a turnout of 595,316. Stroger got 84.3 percent of the vote in the predominantly black wards, 28.6 percent on the Northwest Side, 56 percent of the Hispanic vote and 61.8 percent of the Chicago vote; he lost the suburbs with 39.3 percent of the vote. That gave him a victory margin of 41,952 votes and a share of 53.5 percent. But for a stroke he suffered three weeks before the primary, engendering a sympathy vote, Stroger would have lost to Claypool.

The elder Stroger, unlike his son, was not deemed a fool, but the anti-Stroger vote was 46.5 percent. In 2010 the anti-Stroger vote will be over 80 percent.

1994: Stroger, with Daley's covert backing, faced two credible white candidates, Circuit Court Clerk Aurie Pucinski and county Commissioner Maria Pappas. He got 47.1 percent of the vote, with 295,358 votes in a turnout of 626,457. He received 82.3 percent of the black vote, 26.4 percent on the Northwest Side, 33.4 percent on the Southwest Side, 39.5 percent on the Lakefront and 34.7 percent in the suburbs.

Due to the efforts of pro-Daley committeemen, Stroger won 30.8 percent of the vote in the 45th Ward, 37.9 percent in the 47th Ward, 23.7 percent in the 39th Ward, 24.6 percent in the 38th Ward, 20.9 percent in the 36th Ward and 20.6 percent in the 41st Ward. "The Toddler," unsupported by any white committeemen, will get under less than 10 percent of the vote in those wards in 2010.

In handicapping 2010, demographics are elemental: Blacks comprise one-third of the countywide vote (200,000), Hispanics less than 10 percent (60,000) and whites the remainder (340,000). John Stroger won in 2006 because he got 85 percent of his black base, half the Hispanic vote and 35 percent of the white vote. Stroger averaged 306,000 votes in his 1994 and 2006 primaries, of which about 125,000 votes were from nonblack voters.

The key to the 2010 primary lies in two words: Mayor Daley. In 2008, faced with a plethora of candidates, Democratic slatemakers voted no endorsement in the primary for Cook County state's attorney. As usual, the mayor was circumspect and calculating. The unions were behind Alderman Tom Allen (38th), an occasional Daley critic, the blacks were behind Alderman Howard Brookins (21st), the Lakefront and suburban liberals were behind county Commissioner Larry Suffredin, and retiring incumbent Dick Devine endorsed his chief deputy, Bob Milan.

But, in a turnout of 917,737, fueled by a surge of support for Barack Obama's presidential candidacy, the obscure underdog, Anita Alvarez, the chief deputy state's attorney, pulled a huge upset, capitalizing on the fact that she was a woman, a Hispanic and the mayor's unofficial choice. She got just 25.8 percent of the vote, but backing from pro-Daley organizations in the 10th, 11th, 13th and 14th wards, plus a plurality in all the Hispanic-majority wards, put her over the top.

Will 2010 be "Alvarez, Part II"? The mayor has several priorities:

First, he is up for reelection in February of 2011. He cannot precipitate an aroused black electorate, which could occur if a black county board president is replaced by a white president.

Second, he wants to put somebody in the job who is under the thumb of his brother, John Daley, who is the county board Finance Committee chairman. If O'Brien is the new president, he would be not only another white face, but a potential future mayoral contender. The mayor does not want O'Brien to win.

Third, as was demonstrated in the Alvarez upset, the mayor need not make a decision and deploy his troops until January, the month before the Feb. 2 primary. And, according to party insiders, his preferred choice is Preckwinkle. Her victory would solve a myriad of problems: She'd be a black, female face. She wouldn't run for mayor against him in 2011, which she might do if she lost in 2010. She would not have a vote, as she would not be a county commissioner. She's intelligent and competent, and she presumably would not be insistent on raising taxes.

Here's an early look at the candidates' strategies, presuming a turnout of 600,000:

Stroger: With $640,000 in his campaign fund, Stroger will be visible. Detested by white liberals as incompetent and/or corrupt and by white ethnics and conservatives as a tax hiker, Stroger's only salvation lies in playing the "race card," claiming that the white establishment wants him out. Even if he corrals 75 percent of the black vote (150,000 votes), that would give him only 25 percent of the primary vote, not enough to win.

Preckwinkle: She must package herself as the "New Obama" -- meaning the fashionable black candidate for whom white liberals must vote, and she must get Daley's covert support. If she gets 40 percent of the black vote (80,000 votes) and a third of the white (114,000) and Hispanic (20,000) vote, she wins with 214,000 votes, just a shade over 33 percent of the total.

O'Brien: As the water district president since 1996, O'Brien has compiled a competent record. Although unknown countywide, he has an Irish surname, and he will spend lavishly. He will have nonexistent appeal to blacks and minimal appeal to Hispanics. That means he needs at least two-thirds of the white vote (226,000 votes).

Davis and Brown are spoilers for Preckwinkle. Davis will have some West Side black support, and Brown will have some South Side backing. They muddle the anti-Stroger message and vote, and they give urgency and credibility to O'Brien's claim that he is the only real alternative to 4 more years of "The Toddler." O'Brien is favored.