Back in 1994, the much-maligned Newt Gingrich proved himself a master political strategist when he successfully "nationalized" the country's congressional races by unveiling his "Contract with America."

Gingrich's theory was that the electorate could be persuaded to vote for local Republican congressional candidates if he gave them, in general, a compelling reason to vote against the so-called "liberal" Democrats who controlled Congress, and gave them, in particular, a compelling reason to vote against the Clinton Administration. As a result of Gingrich's vision, the Republicans won control of the U.S. House for the first time in 50 years, and they have maintained their majority since.

In Springfield, Republican House minority leader Tom Cross faces a similar predicament. The Republicans are mired in a 52-66 minority, and the Democratic-drawn remap in 2001 likely will keep them in the majority, unless, by some stroke of genius or by Democratic ineptitude, Cross finds a way to "Illinoisize" local races for state representative.

Crafted by longtime Democratic Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, the 2001 map packed as many Republican voters as possible into as few districts as possible. The result: the Democrats had a 64-54 majority during the General Assembly's 2001-02 session, and they increased it to 66-52 after the 2002 election.

Cross and the Republicans can try to cherry-pick one or two Democratic-held seats each election, which might move them into reach of a majority by 2010, but in 2004 Cross will not be able to "Illinoisize" local contests, demonizing Madigan and turning them into a referendum on the Democratic speaker.

Cross's problem is that, unlike Gingrich, he has no adversarial target. Governor Rod Blagojevich has already unleashed an assault on fellow Democrat Madigan, positioning him as some kind of curmudgeonly conservative, since the House-passed 2005 budget was considerably less than the budget passed by the Democratic Senate, and somewhat less than Blagojevich's proposed budget.

So, in that context, it's difficult, if not implausible, for Republican House candidates to attack Democratic incumbents for supporting Madigan's comparatively conservative budget. And it's equally difficult, if not implausible, to demonize Madigan, since he is not sufficiently unpopular to affect the re-election prospects of Democratic House incumbents. Until Cross can utter those magical six words -- Democratic-passed state income tax hike -- he will languish in the minority.

Few of the 66 Democratic representatives are vulnerable. There are 19 blacks, of whom 11 are from Chicago and five are from the Cook County suburbs, and there are one each from Waukegan, Rockford and East Saint Louis. None will lose to a Republican. There are six Hispanics, of whom five are from Chicago and one is from Aurora. None will lose to a Republican. There are 19 whites from Cook County, of whom 11 are from Chicago and eight are from the Cook County suburbs. None will lose to a Republican. There are three whites from the Collar Counties, including one from McHenry County and two from Lake County. All three -- Jack Franks, Karen May and Kathy Ryg -- represent competitive districts with a large Republican base vote, but Franks and May are entrenched, and they will not lose to a Republican in 2004.

Then there are the 19 remaining Downstate whites. Contrary to popular perception, Downstate Illinois is not predominantly Republican. The rural areas south of Springfield are historically Democratic, and there are large pockets of Democratic strength around Decatur, Rockford, Champaign, Peoria, Rock Island, East Saint Louis, Kankakee and Joliet. This year, at least four Democratic seats are vulnerable, all in districts where veteran incumbents were named to other posts: two are from the Joliet-Kankakee area, and two are from Far Downstate Illinois. At least three of the four open seats will elect a Republican.

Of the 52 Republicans, one is from Chicago (Mike McAuliffe, from the Northwest Side 20th District), nine are from the Cook County suburbs (only one more than the Democrats), 15 are from the Collar Counties, and 27 are from Downstate (only five more than the Democrats, counting their three minority districts). Two of those incumbents are very vulnerable: McAuliffe, who won by 2,583 votes in 2002, and Beth Coulson, from the west Skokie-Glenview-south Northbrook 17th District, who won by 666 votes in 2002. All other Republican incumbents are secure.

As can be seen in the adjoining vote chart, all area incumbents voted identically on virtually every roll call. Listed in the chart are Chicago incumbents Mike McAuliffe (R-20), Ralph Capparelli (D-15), Joe Lyons (D-19) and John Fritchey (D-11) and suburban incumbents Lou Lang (D-16) of Skokie, Beth Coulson (R-17) of Glenview, Rosemary Mulligan (R-65) of Des Plaines and Elaine Nekritz (D-57) of Northbrook. Among the differences, Coulson voted against the compromise state budget, and McAuliffe and Mulligan voted against licensing the sale of bottled water.

It has long been Madigan's policy to avoid roll-call votes on any controversial issue that could be used to defeat his members. Therefore, votes on hot-button issues such as tax or fee hikes, abortion, gun control and gay rights are either killed in committee or attached to the "compromise" budget, which every member supports. There was no 2004 vote which could be construed as a "silver bullet" capable of defeating any Democrat. Here's a synopsis of competitive races:

59th District (southeast Lake County: parts of Deerfield, Vernon Hills): Ryg won by 107 votes in 2002, and she faces Paul Tully, a Deerfield trustee. Ryg is now better known, and Tully is less known than the 2002 Republican candidate. Outlook: Leans Democrat.

75th District (suburban and rural areas west and south of Joliet): Democrat Mary K. O'Brien won in 1996 after the inept Republican incumbent declared that a "woman's place is in the home." O'Brien resigned this year, after the birth of her second child, and she is running for the Appellate Court. The race to succeed her is between Republican Doug Hayse, the Morris police chief, and appointed Democratic incumbent Careen Gordon of Coal City. Outlook: Expect an easy Hayse win.

79th District (south Will County and Kankakee): Longtime Democrat Phil Novak (1987-2003) resigned to become a member of the Illinois Pollution Control Board. His appointed successor was Lisa Dugan of Bradley, whom Novak and Madigan backed in opposition to the Kankakee County Democratic chairman, who wanted the job. Dugan barely survived a tough 2002 primary. She faces Republican Kay Pangle of Kankakee, the Kankakee-Iroquois regional school superintendent. Dugan has a reputation as being intemperate and arrogant. The outlook: Pangle is the narrow favorite.

A Democrat is the very slight favorite in the 117th District (far Downstate: Marion, Benton), where John Bradley, a Marion attorney who gained fame when Blaogjevich called him a "wallflower" who takes his "marching orders" from Madigan, was appointed to replace Democrat Gary Forby, who was appointed to the Senate. But it's too close to call in the 108th District (Effingham), where conservative Democrat Bill Grunloh, who supports placing the Ten Commandments in every public building, a constitutional amendment barring same-sex marriages and an exclusion of insurance coverage for contraceptive devices, was appointed to replace Chuck Hartke, who was named Blagojevich's agriculture director. Republican Dave Reis, who got 45.5 percent of the vote against Hartke in 2002, is running again, and he is bashing Blagojevich for not finishing the Grayville state prison, which will create jobs in the area.

Republicans could win the four Downstate seats and the Lake County seat, but two Republican seats in Cook County are in danger: McAuliffe faces fellow incumbent Ralph Capparelli, and Coulson faces Michele Bromberg, a Skokie village trustee. Both races are too close to call.