As the 2007 municipal election approaches, battles have already erupted in most of Chicago's 11 Hispanic-majority wards, and U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4) threatens a mayoral bid. In a nutshell, here's the current state of Hispanic politics:

First, Gutierrez's campaign is going nowhere. Despite an estimated citywide Hispanic population of 450,000, there is no large, deliverable "Hispanic vote." Gery Chico discovered that to his chagrin when he ran for U.S. senator in 2004. Chico got 29,414 votes in Chicago in the Democratic primary, and just 3,898 votes in the 11 Hispanic wards.

Of the Hispanic population, an estimated 217,000 are non-voting illegal residents from Mexico.

Gutierrez, a onetime ally of Harold Washington, has no support among black voters, because after the mayor's death, he abandoned Tim Evans, the Washington movement's choice for mayor, and eventually allied himself with Rich Daley. In 2004 Gutierrez backed Blair Hull for senator, not Barack Obama.

Many white voters perceive Gutierrez as being too liberal and too identified with such issues as immigration, Puerto Rican independence and halting U.S. Navy target practice on the island of Vieques.

And, being Puerto Rican in a city where 70 percent of Hispanics are of Mexican heritage, Gutierrez generates no enthusiasm among social conservatives, and especially among Mexican Americans on the South Side.

Second, longtime Puerto Rican areas, such as Logan Square and Humboldt Park on the Near Northwest Side, now have a large and growing Mexican-American population. Mexicans were once concentrated on the South Side, in Little Village, Pilsen, Brighton Park and South Lawndale, but many of the more recent Mexican immigrants have settled in southern Humboldt Park, around North and Cicero avenues.

The eastern sections of both Logan Square and Humboldt Park, where they abut Bucktown and Wicker Park at Western Avenue, are rapidly gentrifying, with an influx of upscale white residents. "The clique of older Puerto Rican males who have long dominated North Side Hispanic politics will soon be history," predicted attorney Frank Avila.

Third, areas which have been predominantly white, such as the 13th and 23rd wards on the Southwest Side, around Midway Airport, and the 36th and 38th wards on the Northwest Side, are becoming increasingly Hispanic, as middle-class Hispanic families, especially city workers, flock to buy bungalows and two-flats in low-crime areas.

That population dispersion won't translate into political power any time soon, as those wards are still dominated by white Democrats. In fact, of the 11 Hispanic-majority wards, three have white aldermen: Ed Burke (14th), Dick Mell (33rd) and John Pope (10th). Their political and financial clout discourages any challenge.

And fourth, the much-maligned, much-investigated Hispanic Democratic Organization, led by Victor Reyes and Al Sanchez (both Mexican Americans), is still a powerful force.

According to a 2005 Chicago Sun-Times study, the HDO dispatched 1,173 deputy registrars into city precincts in late autumn to register Hispanic votes. They were authorized to do so by city election authorities. A crosscheck of their names with city payroll records disclosed that 482 had city jobs. In addition, the HDO can raise money. It spent $530,000 in 2003.

In the 2006 primary, every HDO-backed legislative candidate won. The HDO will be backing Daley in 2007, not Gutierrez.

Here's a preview of aldermanic races:

1st Ward (West Town, parts of South Wicker Park and Ukrainian Village): The more things change, the more they stay the same. That old adage describes this ward.

In 2003 young attorney Manny Flores took on two-term incumbent Jesse Granato, who was backed by Daley and the HDO. Granato had won elections by 240 votes in 1995 and by 360 votes in 1999. The ward's Hispanic population has been in a gradual decline, and Flores, of Mexican descent, ran as a reformer, targeting the younger, upscale white voters who are transforming the ward. In an upset, Flores beat Granato 5,290-3,717 in the runoff, a margin of 1,573 votes.

Granato then got the boot as Democratic committeeman in 2004, and he was replaced by Gutierrez, who had moved from the 26th Ward. In the City Council, Flores was neither a Daley critic nor anti-Daley vote. When Gutierrez moved out of the ward in early 2007, the erstwhile anti-HDO Flores got the committeeman's job, which he will hold through 2008.

That incensed state Representative Cynthia Soto (D-4), who wanted the post herself. Soto ran for alderman in 1999 as an anti-HDO candidate. She beat HDO-backed Edgar Lopez for the Illinois House in 2000 but then switched sides, running unopposed in 2002, 2004 and 2006 with HDO support.

Soto now wants to beat Flores as alderman, and she and her activist brother, Ignacio Sanchez, recruited Bob Wright, who works for the county as an analyst for homeland security planning. Also running is Tom Karmak, a journalist and teacher who handled publicity for Granato and Alderman Ted Matlak (32nd). Wright and Karmak will be appealing to the same white voters who backed Flores in 2003, and the HDO will be backing Flores. In this situation, Flores can't lose.

12th Ward (East Little Village and Brighton Park on the South Side): Ray Frias, a Mexican-American police officer, was elected alderman in 1995, was indicted for allegedly taking bribes in the "Silver Shovel" probe, was found not guilty in 1998, and was re-elected in 1999. An HDO loyalist, Frias looked secure and was on track to run for Gutierrez' congressional seat, but then Cook County Commissioner Joseph Mario Moreno recruited George Cardenas to run for alderman in 2003. Suddenly, the HDO ditched Frias and flooded the ward with workers for Cardenas, who topped Frias by 52 votes.

The vote was 2,173-2,121, with 420 votes to Jose Rodriguez. That meant a runoff, but Frias allegedly was promised a state job and conceded. The job never materialized. Frias then announced that he was running for state senator in 2006 against incumbent Tony Munoz (D-1), who was implicated in the Hired Truck scandal, but he quit that race.

For 2007, the HDO will be out in full force for Cardenas. He has three potential foes: Corinna Sanchez, a staffer for Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan; attorney Jesus Salazar and Frias, who is having trouble saying adios. The outlook: If turnout is as low as the 4,714 who voted in 2003 and the HDO floods the ward with 300-plus workers, Cardenas can't lose.

22nd Ward (West Little Village and South Lawndale on the Near South Side): Incumbent Ricardo Munoz, a Mexican-American, is anti-HDO and often anti-Daley in his City Council votes. He already has announced his intention to run for Congress in 2008, when Gutierrez is retiring. That means everybody else who wants that seat will be helping his expected 2007 foe, water department worker Roy Diaz, who is sponsored in his job by Madigan's 13th Ward organization. Also running is Steve Valtierra, a Republican.

Diaz was primed to run in 2003, but he never filed, leaving Munoz unopposed. In 1999, Munoz was elected in 1999 with 66 percent of the vote and in 1995 with 55 percent. The outlook: The HDO will be in for Diaz, but Munoz is popular and will win.

25th Ward (Near West Side, Pilsen): Incumbent Danny Solis, a Mexican American, is the guy the HDO wants to put in the mayor's chair and the guy who, if he has to be Hispanic, Daley would like to succeed him. Solis is the council's president pro tem. Like Frias, former alderman Ambrosio Medrano was indicted in "Silver Shovel," but, unlike Frias, he was found guilty, and Daley appointed Solis to the seat.

Solis won with 81 percent of the vote in 1999 and with 54 percent in 2003. Medrano, out of prison, ran in 2003 and got 37 percent of the vote. He was elected Republican committeeman in 2004, and he is running for alderman again in 2007. Also exploring the race are Carmen Rocha, Leonard Dominguez and Albert Alvaro. The outlook: As long as Daley is mayor, Solis is safe. If Daley doesn't run in 2007 and if the HDO is stretched thin, Solis could lose.

30th Ward (North Logan Square, Cragin, Avondale): The HDO-backed Ariel Reboyras won this new seat with 77 percent of the vote in 2003. Mell is backing Jose Alvarez for 2007. The incumbent is safe.

31st Ward (East of Belmont-Central, Cragin, Kelvyn Park): Democratic Committeeman Joe Berrios, a Puerto Rican, is a powerhouse because he's also a Cook County Board of Review commissioner. In that spot he rules on property tax assessment appeals. Alderman Ray Suarez, his ally, was unopposed in 2003, got 62 percent of the vote in 1999, and was unopposed in 1995. He won't lose in 2007.

35th Ward (Logan Square): Rey Colon, who is Puerto Rican, beat incumbent Vilma Colom 4,444-3,212 in 2003, after losing 4,819-3,044 in 1999. The HDO backed Colom in both contests. Colon has since seen the light. In 2007 the HDO is backing Colon, who is facing a comeback bid by Colom, who will be the anti-Daley, anti-HDO candidate. Granato, formerly of the 1st Ward, also may run. The outlook: Colon is safe.