News
flash (Autumn 2006): Democratic House minority
leader Nancy Pelsoi proclaims that “Democrats
are prepared to govern and ready to lead.”
News
flash (November 2006): Democrats win control of
Congress for the first time since 1994, gaining 28
House seats and six Senate seats, for majorities
of 232-203 and 51-49, respectively.
News
flash (January 2007): Speaker Pelosi promises
enactment of Democratic agenda within 100 hours.
That became 100 days. And now it’s past 200
days. How about 2009?
News
flash (Summer 2007): Senate majority leader Harry
Reid rebuts Republican charges that the 110th
Congress is a “do-nothing Congress.” Reid said
that “it’s taking a little longer.”
News
flash (Summer 2007): Blame it on the Republicans.
Maryland’s Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the
Democratic House Campaign Committee, blames Senate
Republicans for blocking Senate Democrats from
passing House-enacted bills.
More
than 200 House bills have been sent to the Senate.
As
set forth in the adjoining
vote chart, House Democrats have passed some
meaningful legislation: $120 billion for the Iraq
War, the 2008 budget resolution, a minimum wage
increase, funding research on stem cells and human
cloning, 9/11 Commission recommendations and
restrictions on appointments of U.S. attorneys.
But
voters expected a lot more. Recent polling shows
Congress’ approval rating below 25 percent,
which is lower than George Bush’s and lower than
that of the Republican-controlled 109th Congress.
House Democratic strategists are confused and
concerned. They sense that voters will want a
change in 2008, and a Democrat will win the
presidency, perhaps in a landslide. But they also
sense that prospects for gaining more seats are
being stifled by the Democrats’ disappointing
congressional performance.
In
Illinois, however, the Democrats’ 10-9 edge in
the House delegation won’t change, primarily due
to Democratic recruiting failures. Here’s the
2008 outlook:
6th
District (western Cook County suburbs, DuPage
County): Republican Peter Roskam won this open
seat in 2006 by just 4,810 votes, getting 51.4
percent of the vote and beating the much-hyped
Tammy Duckworth, an Army helicopter pilot who lost
both legs in Iraq. Roskam raised $2,888,932, and
Duckworth raised $3,269,173. In addition, the
national parties spent sizable amounts on Chicago
media market buys: $3.17 million for Duckworth and
$3.36 million for Roskam.
Duckworth
carried the Cook County portion of the district by
1,968 votes but lost DuPage County by 6,778 votes.
After her defeat she was appointed director of the
state Department of Veterans Affairs.
Duckworth
won’t run again in 2008, nor will Christine
Cegelis, who lost to incumbent Henry Hyde in 2002
and 2004 and who lost the 2006 Democratic primary.
With $544,735 on hand as of July 1 and with no
credible 2008 foe, the conservative Roskam is a
cinch for re-election.
18th
District (Peoria, Springfield suburbs, 16 rural
counties): Republican incumbent Ray LaHood is
retiring after seven terms, and Democrats thought
they had the perfect nominee in state Senator John
Sullivan of suburban Quincy. But Sullivan’s seat
is up in 2008, and he decided to seek re-election.
The likely Democrat is former Quincy mayor Chuck
Scholz. Republican contenders may include state
Representatives Aaron Schock and Dave Leitch and
former legislator Jeff Mays. A Republican will
replace LaHood.
14th
District (Kane, Kendall, DeKalb and four rural
counties): Longtime (1998-2006) Republican House
Speaker Dennis Hastert lost his post to Pelosi in
2007, but he might stick around if he could regain
it in 2009. That would require a net Republican
gain of 15 seats in 2008 -- which is highly
unlikely.
If
he retires, a nasty Republican primary will ensue.
Possible contenders include Hastert staffer Mike
Stokke, state Senator Chris Lauzen, state
Representative Tim Schmitz, Geneva Mayor Kevin
Burns, Kane County Board Chairwoman Karen
McConnaughay and dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, who
lost statewide primaries in 2002, 2004 and 2006.
If the arch-conservative, anti-immigration
Oberweis wins, a Democrat would have a chance.
But
the Democratic field is distinctly inauspicious:
2006 loser John Laesch, physicist Bill Foster and
attorney Jotham Stein. State Representative Linda
Chapa LaVia, like Sullivan, won’t give up her
House seat to run. Hence, a Republican will keep
the seat.
The
adjoining vote chart includes six area
Representatives: Democrats Rahm Emanuel, Jan
Schakowsky, Dan Lipinski and Luis Gutierrez, all
from Chicago-dominated districts, and Republicans
Roskam and Mark Kirk, from suburban districts. All
but Lipinski and Kirk are safe in 2008. Here’s
the outlook:
10th
District (North Shore of Cook County and east Lake
County): Kirk had a scare in 2006, defeating
Democrat Dan Seals by just 13,651 votes, with 53.4
percent of the vote. He won in 2004 by 78,275
votes and in 2002 by 70,311 votes. Clearly,
dissatisfaction with the Iraq War and the Bush
Administration took a toll. Kirk, a liberal on
social issues, has supported Iraq policy. Kirk
spent $3.1 million in 2006, and Seals spent $1.9
million.
This
year Kirk voted against sending 20,000 more troops
to Iraq, but he opposed the Democrats’
withdrawal deadline. Seals, a marketing executive,
is running again, proclaiming himself the
“anti-war candidate.” He faces opposition in
the Democratic primary from Jay Footlik, a
business consultant. According to July 1
fund-raising disclosures, Kirk had $1.1 million on
hand, to Seals’ $265,000 and Footlik’s
$274,000.
The
outlook: If the Iraq situation is not resolved by
the 2008 election, if the Democratic presidential
candidate runs on a get-out-of-Iraq platform, if
national Democrats dump $3 million into Seals’
campaign, and if Kirk doesn’t disavow the Bush
Administration’s Iraq policy, he will lose.
Right now, he’s still a narrow favorite.
3rd
District (Southwest Side of Chicago and adjacent
suburbs): Dan Lipinski is his father’s son, and
therein lies his problem. Lipinski was a college
professor in Tennessee when his dad, Bill Lipinski,
who represented the district from 1983 to 2004,
decided to retire in 2004 -- after he was
renominated and just before the deadline for
naming a replacement. Bill Lipinski is a Daley
loyalist and the 23rd Ward Democratic
committeeman. When the committeemen met to pick a
new nominee, Dan Lipinski was the only candidate.
The media, and a lot of voters, were upset about
the sneaky selection. So what else is new? Todd
Stroger got his dad’s job, as have many others.
In
Congress, Dan Lipinski votes (as did his dad) as a
conservative on social issues, opposing abortion
rights, stem cell research and human cloning. He
had a primary challenge in 2006 from John Kelly
and John Sullivan, but he won with 54.5 percent of
the vote. In 2008 Mark Pera, an assistant Cook
County state’s attorney, is set to run, and he
will attack Lipinski from the left. But as long as
the powerhouse 11th, 13th and 19th Ward Democratic
organizations stick with the “Big Lipper,” the
“Lil’ Lipper” won’t be beat.