In
the not too distant past, political parties picked
presidential candidates based on geography. Now
the choice depends on personality, fund-raising
capability, ideology, race and gender.
After
the Revolution Virginia was the "cradle of
the presidency," with four of the first six
presidents (Washington, Jefferson, Madison and
Monroe) being a Virginian. There have been none
since. During the period from 1789 to 1828
geography mattered, with the South outvoting New
England, although a Bostonian won in 1796 and
1824.
After
the Civil War Illinois, Ohio and New York battled
to be the proverbial "cradle," as all
were swing states and, given the enormous
patronage of the presidency, a nominee won his
home state. In the 18 elections from 1860 to 1928,
the Republicans nominated seven Ohioans, four
Illinoisans and two New Yorkers; Democrats chose
seven New Yorkers, one Ohioan, and three New
Jersey residents. Republicans won 14 of the 18
elections.
After
the Depression, from 1932 to 1960, New York was
the critical state. Democrats nominated a New
Yorker (Franklin Roosevelt) in four of five
elections, and Republicans (Tom Dewey) in two.
Democrats won all five contests.
The
South and the Sun Belt dominated thereafter. In
the 12 elections from 1960 to 2004, a Texan
(Lyndon Johnson, George H.W. Bush and George W.
Bush) won four, a Californian (Richard Nixon and
Ronald Reagan) four, a Democratic southerner
(Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton) three and a
Bostonian (John Kennedy) one. Republicans won
seven of the 12 elections.
Now,
with the emergence of Barrack Obama as the 2008
Democratic nominee, geography has become wholly
irrelevant.
Obama
won the nomination not because he is a senator
from Illinois, but rather because he has stature
as a black senator with an engaging personality, a
liberal and racial base, and an awesome
fund-raising capability. The fact that Hillary
Clinton was a transplanted Illinoisan who lived in
Arkansas, then the White House, and then New York,
was similarly irrelevant. Her fundamental appeal
was based on gender, and her marriage to Bill
Clinton enabled her to tap into his vast network
of connections and raise stupendous amounts of
money.
In
the 55 presidential elections spanning America's
220-year electoral history, Illinois has been the
home of just two presidents, Abraham Lincoln (1861
to 1865) and Ulysses Grant (1869 to 1877), one an
icon, the other a failure.
In
the 148 years since Lincoln's election to the
White House, an eclectic array of Illinoisans has
aspired to the presidency, and due to political
trends, personal faults, ineptitude, party feuds
or pure bad luck, all have failed. Here's the
list:
Stephen
Douglas: The "Little Giant" was a
Democratic Illinois senator from 1847 until his
death in 1861. He was a master equivocator,
another in a long line of Democratic
"doughfaces" - Northerners with Southern
sympathies. After beating Lincoln in the 1858
Senate race, Douglas was the obvious 1860
Democratic presidential nominee, but he also was
the author of "popular sovereignty" in
Kansas, and he alienated both abolitionists and
southerners. The Democrats were split in the 1860
election, and Lincoln beat Douglas
1,866,352-1,375,175, with 845,763 votes for
southern Democrat John Breckinridge. Had the
Democrats been united, Douglas would have won.
John
Logan: This Civil War general, after whom Logan
Square is named, was a Republican Illinois senator
from 1871 to 1877 and from 1879 to 86. In 1884 he
was the vice-presidential candidate on the
Republican ticket with James Blaine, who lost to
New York Democratic Governor Grover Cleveland by
62,683 votes. Had Blaine won, Logan could have
become president at a later date.
Shelby
Cullom: Cullom cultivated a physical likeness to
Lincoln, and he was Illinois' Republican governor
from 1877 to 1883 and a senator from 1883 to 1913
- a remarkable span of 36 years. Although
monumentally popular in Illinois, he never won a
presidential nomination. His best shot was in
1888, but Benjamin Harrison of Indiana beat him.
Adlai
Stevenson: A classic example of being in the wrong
place at the wrong time. Stevenson was elected
vice president on the Democratic ticket with
Grover Cleveland in 1892, but the economic
collapse of 1893 prompted a clash between gold and
silver coinage advocates. Had Cleveland been
popular, Stevenson would have been his 1896
successor. "Silverite" William Jennings
Bryan won the 1896 nomination but lost the
election. Stevenson ran for vice president in 1900
with Bryan, who lost again.
John
Peter Altgeld: A reformer who won the governorship
in 1892, Altgeld was a logical Democratic
presidential contender in 1896, but he granted
pardons to three anarchists convicted of killing
police officers in the Haymarket bombing, was
eclipsed by Bryan, and lost his re-election in
1896.
Frank
Lowden: Despite a wave in support of Woodrow
Wilson, businessman Lowden was elected governor in
1916. He governed well and, after the death in
1919 of Teddy Roosevelt, he sought the 1920
Republican presidential nomination. But Lowden
feuded with Chicago Mayor "Big Bill"
Thompson, and the Illinois delegation didn't back
him in his fight with "progressive"
General Leonard Wood, and the delegates wound up
deadlocked for nine ballots. Warren Harding was
the compromise choice. Had Lowden been nominated,
he would have won.
Scott
Lucas: From Downstate Havana, Lucas' political
rise was meteoric. Elected a Democratic senator in
1938 and re-elected in 1944, Lucas was the Senate
majority leader in 1948, and he was poised to run
for the presidency in the 1950s, but scandals in
Cook County involving the Democrats gave underdog
Republican Everett Dirksen an opening, and he
upset Lucas by 294,354 votes.
Adlai
Stevenson II: Republican Dwight Green was a
reasonably popular governor, having won by 256,945
votes in 1940 and by 72,271 votes in 1944, but
Chicago lawyer Stevenson, the son of Cleveland's
vice president, rode a crest of Democratic support
for President Harry Truman and won by a landslide
572,067 votes. Stevenson was in the midst of his
1952 re-election campaign, and not seeking the
presidency, when he was drafted for the thankless
task of running against Dwight Eisenhower. He lost
big that year and again in 1956; in 1960, when he
could have won, he couldn't get nominated.
Everett
Dirksen: A congressman from Downstate Pekin from
1933 to 1949, Dirksen was the
"sacrificial" Republican Senate
candidate in 1950. In 1952 he was the leader of
conservative Bob Taft's effort to derail the
Eisenhower candidacy, accusing Dewey and the
Eastern liberals of "leading us down the road
of defeat." Like Lucas, Dirksen rose quickly
in the Senate. After the 1958 election debacle,
when Republicans lost 13 seats, Dirksen became the
minority leader. He evolved into a pragmatic
liberal, supporting civil rights and having great
influence, but, being born in 1896, he was never a
presidential prospect. He died of cancer in 1969.
Chuck
Percy: The "boy wonder" Bell and Howell
chairman lost a race for governor in 1964 by
179,299 votes, but he rebounded to defeat
incumbent Democrat Paul Douglas in 1966 by 422,302
votes. Percy appeared to be on a fast track for
the presidency, but he was a liberal in an
increasingly conservative party. His best shot was
in 1976, after Richard Nixon's two terms. Percy
figured that he could run against the
controversial Vice President Spiro Agnew, but
Agnew and Nixon resigned, Gerald Ford became
president, and Ford didn't choose Percy for vice
president. Percy's hopes vanished, and he was
defeated by Paul Simon in the 1984 Senate race.
Dick
Ogilvie: Elected sheriff in 1962 and Cook County
Board president in 1966, the uncharismatic
Republican Ogilvie had a White House timetable:
Win the governorship in 1968 (which he did by
127,794 votes), get re-elected in 1972, and run
for president in 1976. Ogilvie courageously
imposed a state income tax, and he lost to
Democrat Dan Walker in 1972 by just 77,494 votes.
Like Percy, Ogilvie figured he could beat Agnew,
but he was never a beloved figure like Ronald
Reagan, and he had no base outside Illinois. Even
if he had defeated Walker 1972, he never would
have won a presidential nomination.
Dan
Walker: If Jimmy Carter could win the presidency
in 1976, why couldn't Walker? One reason: Mayor
Richard J. Daley. Walker spent 4 years fighting
with the mayor. Had he spent that time running for
president, he might have won.
Jim
Thompson: Blessed with youth, vigor and smarts,
Thompson always aspired to be president, but he
got derailed by the "Reagan Revolution."
Elected Republican governor in 1976 and re-elected
in 1978, Thompson was ready to move upward in the
1980s, but Reagan won the presidency in 1980 and
Thompson's window was shut, although he served as
governor until 1990.
Paul
Simon: Elected lieutenant governor in 1968, Simon
lost the 1972 Democratic primary to Walker. He
later beat Percy, and he ran for president in 1988
- one cycle too soon. Had Simon run in 1992, he,
not Clinton, would have beaten Bush.
And
then there's Obama, who in 2003 was an obscure
state senator from Hyde Park. He had no
"presidential timetable." But, like
Lincoln was in 1860, he's in the right place at
the right time.