Chicago Cubs fans' perpetual lament is "Wait until next year." Allies of embattled Mayor Rich Daley are utilizing a similar argument: "Wait until 2015." They say: Don't oppose the mayor in 2011. Instead, wait to run in 2015, when Daley will retire.

Hence, the legion of mayoral wannabes are in a quandary: Is Daley beatable in 2011? Is it worth the risk to oppose him?

If Daley commits to run in 2011 and to quit in 2015, it behooves the politically astute contenders to take a pass in 2011, letting him win a final term. But if he is beatable in 2011, potential successors must consider the consequences of vacillation: If they don't run, a rival may win the job, and they'll never be mayor.

In Chicago the mayoralty is not just the top of the heap. It is the ruler of the universe. It is every politician's dream job, and if the occupant is astute, it is a lifetime sinecure.

Who will be the next mayor? Daley, age 68, will serve his final term if he wins in 2011. Chicago has had nine mayors in the past 79 years, three of whom exhibited extraordinary durability: Ed Kelly (1932 to 1947), the elder Richard Daley (1955 to 1976) and the younger Richard Daley (1989 to the present). The city's mayor has been from Bridgeport for 44 of the 55 years since 1955. When "King Richard II" retires, the only obvious dynastic replacements are his brother Bill, a former U.S. Commerce Department secretary, and his son Patrick, who serves in the U.S. Army.

The election for municipal offices will be held on Feb. 22, 2011. The filing period will be from Nov. 15 to Nov. 22. Candidates can circulate nominating petitions after Aug. 24. A minimum of 12,500 signatures is required to run for mayor.

Chicago has 1,444,277 registered voters. Turnout in 2007 was just 447,571, and Daley won with 318,578 votes (71 percent of the votes cast). He had 347,698 votes (79 percent) in 2003, 418,211 votes (72 percent) in 1999, 350,785 votes (60 percent) in 1995, 450,155 votes (71 percent) in 1991 and 574,619 votes (56 percent) when he first won in 1989. From 1983 to 2007, turnout in mayoral elections has declined by 840,531, from a peak of 1,288,102 in 1983. In 2007 just 22 percent of the registered voters backed Daley.

In the post-Daley era, the "3/300 Rule" will apply. That means that any mayoral contender needs $3 million and a base of 300,000 votes to have a chance to win. Daley has $1.48 million in his campaign account. Emerging 2011 candidates against Daley are Jay Stone, Fred White, Dock Walls and Alderman Scott Waguespack (32nd). None is an imposing candidate. But the 2011 election will be a referendum on Daley if he runs, and, tactically, he won't announce his intentions until early November, which means the field is frozen.

Who will succeed Daley?

This column has created an "electability index" (see adjoining chart). Criteria include name recognition, fund-raising capability, deliverable political base, the potential to expand beyond that base and hunger for the job. On a scale of one to 10, with one being nonexistent and 10 being astounding, every potential candidate is rated. Accruing more than 40 points makes it a metaphysical certainty that he or she will be the next mayor; accruing fewer than 20 points -- well, it's an utter impossibility.

Here's a brief "scouting report" on the 22 contenders listed in the chart, including age, job, cash on hand as of July 1, strengths, weaknesses and rating:

Lisa Madigan, age 44, is Illinois' very competent attorney general, and she has trans-racial appeal to women voters and $4.4 million in cash. In addition, the Southwest Side campaign organization of her father, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, will deliver. But she wants to be governor, and she will run in 2014, especially if Republican Bill Brady is elected in November. If Pat Quinn wins and is a tax-hiking disaster, Madigan may look elsewhere. If she runs for mayor, she wins. Rating: 36.

James Meeks, age 54, a South Side state senator, has $71,800. He is the pastor of the Salem Baptist Church, which has the largest black congregation in Chicago. Meeks seeks education "reform" and a state tax hike, and he supports school vouchers to allow parents the choice to send their children to private schools -- which intrigues whites and conservatives. Meeks' appeal is cerebral, not racial. He would co-opt most of the black vote. He's the man to watch. Rating: 33.

Bill Daley, age 62, took a pass on bids for senator and governor, but, should the mayor's popularity persist through his next term, he might opt for a dynasty, making him the 2015 placeholder until Patrick Daley is ready. With his brand name, fund-raising capacity and "comfort factor," Bill Daley rates a 35.

Tom Dart, age 48, is the county sheriff, and he has $216,155 on hand. Dart made national headlines when he suspended evictions on foreclosed apartment buildings, and he has tried to upgrade security at County Jail, seeming to be both compassionate and tough on crime. His base is in the Southwest Side 19th Ward, but he has appeal to blacks and liberals. If elected, he could serve a couple of decades.  Rating: 34.

Rahm Emanuel, age 50, President Obama's chief of staff, a three-term Chicago congressman and a onetime Daley aide. His appeal is to Jewish voters, who are barely 5 percent of the population, but he has more than $3 million. Emanuel has been tepid in his advocacy of Israel, and he has the personality of a prune. He's not salable, despite his Obama tie. Rating: 30.

Jesse Jackson Jr., age 45, the South Side congressman. Two words: It's over. Sunk by the "Good Ship Blagojevich." Because of his black base, he rates a 30.

Luis Gutierrez, age 54. The firebrand Puerto Rican congressman from the Near North Side has $522,000. Chicago's Hispanic base is less than 20 percent, and Gutierrez has negligible appeal to whites, but he lusts after the job, and could get 15 to 20 percent of the vote. Rating: 31.

Toni Preckwinkle, age 63, the Hyde Park alderman who is about to become the next Cook County Board president, controls her own destiny. If she is effective in her new post, shows "reformist" zeal, cuts spending, is resoundingly reelected in 2014, and is the only woman and the only black candidate running for mayor in 2015, she wins. Lots of "ifs." Rating: 28.

Dan Hynes, age 42, the outgoing state comptroller and a potential has-been. In the February primary election against Quinn, Hynes got 154,657 votes in Chicago (45.4 percent of the total cast), spending $4.4 million. His base is in the 19th Ward, long run by his father, Tom Hynes. He has $17,000. His wooden style is poisonous. Rating: 32 and falling.

Jim Houlihan, age 67, another 19th Ward product, with a Lakefront base, is the outgoing county assessor. He has $221,670. His only chance: Run in 2011 as the anti-Daley alternative. By 2015 he'll be dust. Rating: 33.

Ed Burke, age 66, has been the 14th Ward alderman since 1969, when he assumed his father's seat at age 25. How about this: Elect another dynastic scion, a 41-year "insider" alderman and a lawyer who has gotten rich representing clients doing business with the city? Sounds like the ticket to success. Burke has $6.18 million. That alone, and if he faces a black candidate or Gutierrez, earns him a 32.

Joe Berrios and Forrest Claypool are running for assessor. Berrios is the county Democratic chairman, a powerhouse in North Side Hispanic wards and a Board of Review commissioner, and he will spend $2 million. Claypool, an outgoing county commissioner and a former Daley aide who is running as an independent, will spend $1.5 million. The winner will be a major player in the post-Daley era, Berrios as a putative kingmaker, and perhaps making himself king, and Claypool as the independent dragon slayer, seizing the "reform" mantle. Claypool rates a 33 and Berrios a 29, but the November loser will rate a zero.

Mike Quigley, age 51, a former county commissioner and a Claypool ally, was elected congressman in 2009. If Claypool falters, Quigley is ready. Rating: 27.

Aldermen make horrific mayoral candidates. Their identity is local. They have no citywide contacts. But in Pat O'Connor (40th), Tom Allen (38th), Bob Fioretti (2nd), Brendan Reilly (42nd), Joe Moore (49th) and Tom Tunney (44th), hope springs eternal. They all have the capability of raising $1 million. Allen and O'Connor, both Northwest Siders, have run countywide. Tunney would get a huge gay vote. All are pro-Daley aldermen. None will win. All rate in the 20s.

And finally, there are two quixotic anti-Daley contenders, former city inspector general David Hoffman and Waguespack. They rate a 28 and an 18, respectively.