Is he a Republican set-up?

That's the controversy surrounding Bill Scheurer, the Moderate Party candidate in the northwest suburban 8th U.S. House District, which encompasses parts of Cook, McHenry and Lake counties. His candidacy can only hurt the Democrats and aid the Republicans. So is he a Republican Trojan horse?

Democratic incumbent Melissa Bean has taken a page out of the Bill Clinton play book, namely, triangulation, which means positioning oneself somewhere between extreme liberals and extreme conservatives. After beating 35-year conservative congressman Phil Crane in 2004, Bean has compiled an unorthodox record, voting as a conservative on defense, spending, trade and immigration issues, but as a liberal on social issues such as abortion, embryonic stem-cell research and endangered species.

That minimizes the target for Republican Dave McSweeney, who can't blast her as a liberal, but it maximizes the target for Scheurer, who can excoriate her as a Republican in disguise and a Bush backer. Scheurer will attempt to portray Bean as a DINO -- "Democrat in name only."

In a district carried by George Bush by 31,535 votes and with 56 percent of the votes cast in 2004 and by 33,303 votes (56 percent) in 2000, Bean knows she must cut into the base Republican vote to win. Her congressional votes contrast starkly with her liberal Democratic House colleagues. She opposed setting a date for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and she supported a resolution declaring Iraq a "central front" in the war on terror. She backed the Central American Free Trade Agreement, thereby incurring the wrath of labor unions; the AFL-CIO has refused to endorse her. She also backed tort reform, bankruptcy reform, immigration reform, the Patriot Act renewal, a ban on aid to the Palestinian Authority and a 1 percent cut in all discretionary federal spending.

In the past year, as detailed in the adjoining vote chart, Bean voted the same as conservative Republican Henry Hyde (R-6) on 13 of 28 selected votes, and she disagreed with liberal Democrat Jan Schakowsky (D-9) on nine of 28. Bean has been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and she had more than $2 million in her campaign account as of July 1.

In 2004 Bean shrewdly portrayed Crane as a junket king due to his extensive foreign travels and as a lazy seat-warmer who accomplished little in Washington despite his seniority. She spent $1.5 million on the race, and she benefited from an additional $900,000 in independent expenditures by Planned Parenthood and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee attacking Crane. Crane responded limply that Bean was a liberal, and she won by 9,191 votes, with 52 percent of the vote. She ran 18,082 votes ahead of John Kerry, and Crane ran 22,644 votes behind Bush.

The 2004 contest was clearly a referendum on Crane, and roughly 20,000 pro-Bush Republicans voted for Bean. The 2006 contest will be a referendum on Bean, and that presents McSweeney with a conundrum: He will win if he recaptures the base Republican vote, but he can't attack Bean as a congenital Democratic liberal, since she has demonstrated otherwise on numerous votes. In 2002, when Bush was quite popular, Crane beat Bean 95,275-70,626; in 2006 Bush is less popular and McSweeney needs to give voters a reason to oust Bean . . . and it won't be "support the president." Thus far, McSweeney is still grasping for a theme. If he runs an anti-abortion rights, anti-gay rights, pro-gun rights campaign, he'll stampede moderate Republicans to Bean.

However, Scheurer could seal Bean's doom. By tacking to the right to appeal to Republican voters, Bean ignores the more liberal portion of her Democratic base. Scheurer is outspokenly opposed to keeping to U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, opposes CAFTA and free trade, and calls for a balanced budget. In the 2004 Democratic primary, Scheurer got 7,518 votes to Bean's 26,740.

Scheurer had to secure more than 13,950 signatures to get on the ballot. That accomplishment alone signals some Democratic dissatisfaction with Bean. My early prediction: Scheurer, running as the get-out-of-Iraq candidate, will get at least 8,000 votes, but Bean, with $2 million to spend, will bury her district in an avalanche of direct mail and media ads, touting her "independence" and "effectiveness."

McSweeney, who is wealthy, spent $1.9 million to win the March Republican primary, getting 23,700 votes (42.7 percent of the vote) in a turnout of 55,440. His election is a top priority of Washington Republicans, but Bean has positioned herself carefully, and she will win a second term. Whatever votes she loses to Scheurer will be offset by pick-ups among Republicans.

Also included in the vote chart, along with Hyde, who is retiring after 32 years in office, and Schakowsky, are U.S. Representatives Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2) and Luis Gutierrez (D-4), one of whom may run for Chicago mayor in 2007, Dan Lipinski (D-3), Rahm Emanuel (D-5) and Mark Kirk (R-10).

As chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Emanuel is poised to take a giant leap into Washington's power elite if Democrats win control of the U.S. House in November. Republicans have an 18-seat majority, but current projections are for a 25-seat-plus Democratic gain.

Emanuel, a former White House staffer, has used his Clinton connections, as well as his seat on the Ways and Means Committee, to raise more than $25 million for the campaign committee.

If House minority leader Nancy Pelosi becomes speaker and minority whip Steny Hoyer rises to majority leader, then there will be an opening for the majority whip's job, which is to figuratively whip Democratic congressmen into line to support positions taken by the Democratic Caucus. If Democrats take the majority, Emanuel will be deemed a hero, and a virtual cinch for the whip's post.

Interestingly, Schakowsky also was on track to rise on the leadership ladder. A close ally of Pelosi, Schakowsky tried to win the job of caucus vice chairman last February and tried to build a coalition of ultra-liberal and female members. But she lost to John Larson of Connecticut. The third-ranking spot is caucus chairman, held by James Clyburn of South Carolina, who reportedly lacks the necessary "attitude" to be whip. Had Schakowsky beaten Larson, she, not Emanuel, would have been on track for whip.

One of the more curious votes was that to bar U.S. aid to the Palestinian Authority, which is dedicated to the eradication of Israel. Jackson and Gutierrez both voted "present." There's not much of an Arab or Muslim vote in Chicago, but the two congressmen certainly infuriated a lot of Jewish contributors with that vote.

Hyde represents the west suburban 6th District, where a torrid race has developed between Republican Peter Roskam and Democrat Tammy Duckworth, a wounded Iraq veteran recruited by Emanuel. Roskam is favored to win. Hyde was re-elected with 65 percent of the vote in 2002 and with 56 percent in 2004, in a district carried by Bush with 53 percent of the vote in both 2000 and 2004. But an anti-Bush wave and a Duckworth upset will make Emanuel look like a genius.

Emanuel, representing the Northwest Side, faces Republican lawyer Kevin White. He has been spending most of his time dialing for dollars and traveling the country. Emanuel won with 67 percent of the vote in 2002 and with 76 percent in 2004. He'll win easily in 2006.

Schakowsky's husband, Bob Creamer, recently was convicted of bank fraud and tax evasion, but that won't threaten her. In her Northwest Side/north suburban district, she won with 70 percent of the vote in 2002 and with 76 percent in 2004.

Also secure is North Shore Republican Mark Kirk, who is very hawkish on military matters but a liberal on social issues. Kirk won his first term in 2000 with 51 percent of the vote, and he upped that to 69 percent in 2002 and to 64 percent in 2004. He faces Democrat Dan Seals, a 34-year-old black corporate executive. Kirk will win.