Unlike
the storied Douglas MacArthur, the popular general who was fired by
President Harry Truman during the Korean War, veteran Northwest Side
state Representative Ralph Capparelli (D-15) apparently has no
intention of fading away. "I'm running for re-election,"
Capparelli said.
But
as Capparelli, first elected in 1970, ponders using all or part of his
$974,000 campaign warchest to run for an 18th term in 2004 in the 20th
District, the attitude of Republican Mike McAuliffe, the incumbent
state representative in the 20th District, is expressed succinctly:
"If he wants to beat me, he's going to have to spend it
all," said McAuliffe.
"He
can't let go," one prominent area Democrat said of Capparelli. As
the dean of the Illinois House, as the deputy House majority leader,
and as the 41st Ward Democratic committeeman, Capparelli, age 79, has
long thought himself to be indispensable. But with a Democratic
governor and a 66-52 House Democratic majority, the return of
Capparelli to Springfield for the 2005-06 session is a priority of
absolutely nobody except Capparelli. He's now very dispensable.
For
over three decades, Capparelli was safely ensconced in his Far
Northwest Side district, and Springfield Democrats, including Speaker
Mike Madigan, feared that if he quit the seat would go to a
Republican, so they wouldn't let him go.
In
2002, after Madigan redrew legislative district lines to ensure a
Democratic House majority for the next decade, Capparelli made a
fateful decision. He decided to run in the adjacent 15th District, a
newly created district centered on the 39th and 40th wards, rather
than in the 20th District, where he lived, centered on the 41st and
36th wards and Norwood Park Township.
Capparelli
ran in the 15th District, which contained part of his old 13th
District, in order to let his buddy, state Representative Bob
Bugielski, run in the 20th District. With Capparelli out and Bugielski
in, McAuliffe opted to run in the 20th District, and not in a suburban
district. McAuliffe campaigned hard, pummeled Bugielski as a
tax-hiker, and won the seat by 2,583 votes. Thus, the Democrats'
longtime fear was realized: Without Capparelli, they lost the seat.
Capparelli
could have kept the 15th District seat forever, provided he moved into
the district. But he didn't, so now, to stay in Springfield, he must
beat McAuliffe.
And,
as Capparelli embarks on what will be a Herculean battle, five
relevant aspects must be considered:
First,
Madigan and the Democrats don't need to beat McAuliffe to keep their
majority, so they're not going to fund Capparelli. If Capparelli runs,
he'll have to self-fund his campaign.
Second,
Capparelli could retire and pay that $974,000 to himself. After paying
income tax, he would net $600,000. If he runs and spends it, in effect
two of every three dollars will come out of his pocket.
Third,
Capparelli's great appeal has always been his fiscal and social
conservatism and his aversion to supporting any tax hike. Be assured
that McAuliffe will thoroughly research Capparelli's record and that
he will find some tax-hike votes. As shown in the adjoining vote
chart, this year Capparelli voted to increase the riverboat casino
tax, increase state liquor license fees, increase 90 various state
fees, and impose a sales tax on aircraft sales.
In
2002 McAuliffe made Bugielski appear as the "Abominable
Taxman," and it was fatal. McAuliffe surely will unearth upwards
of 100 Capparelli votes for tax and fee hikes over the past 33 years,
and he'll go negative on his opponent. Does Capparelli really have the
desire to accept that kind of abuse? And does he have the fortitude to
reciprocate and go negative on McAuliffe?
Fourth,
what is the rationale for another Capparelli term? McAuliffe, age 39,
is young, vigorous, and just as conservative as Capparelli. He is a
"lifer," a politician who will serve in the General Assembly
for his whole life and who has no ambition for higher office.
McAuliffe has served since 1996 and, over time, he will accumulate
more seniority and clout, which will help his district. So Capparelli
must convince voters to give him, at age 79, another term or two,
rather than retain the younger and more vigorous McAuliffe.
And
lastly, there's ego. Does Capparelli really want to risk ending his
long career with a defeat?
Included
in the adjoining vote chart for the
2003 session are five area Democrats -- Capparelli, Joe Lyons (D-19),
John Fritchey (D-11) and Rich Bradley (D-40), all of Chicago, and Lou
Lang (D-16) of Skokie -- and two Republicans -- McAuliffe of Chicago
and Rosemary Mulligan (R-65) of Des Plaines. All except Lang and
Mulligan are "House lifers." Lang, who briefly ran for
governor during 2001, likely will run for state treasurer in 2006.
Mulligan covets Henry Hyde's (R-6) congressional seat, and she will
run for it when Hyde retires.
The
representatives voted alike on about two-thirds of all 2003 roll
calls, but major differences surfaced on the SBC rate hike (Capparelli,
Fritchey and Lyons opposed it), the riverboat casino tax hike (Lang
and McAuliffe opposed it), the state fee hikes (Lang and Mulligan
opposed them), and the inclusion of contraceptives under prescription
drug coverage for state insurers (Capparelli and Lyons opposed that).
Either Capparelli or McAuliffe won't be back in 2005, but the other
incumbents are secure in 2004, and Democrat John D'Amico will win
Capparelli's 15th District seat.