When
politicians in Springfield refer to the "Four
Tops," they're not describing the famous
singing group.
That's
the moniker by which the state's four most
powerful legislators -- House Speaker Mike Madigan,
House Minority Leader Tom Cross, Senate President
Emil Jones and Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson
-- are known. There are 177 state legislators, but
the four leaders control their respective
contingents with an iron fist, and it was with
them that Governor Rod Blagojevich negotiated
during the General Assembly's recent 50-day
overtime session.
The
reason for their draconian dominance is summed up
in four words: "campaign cash" and
"political cover." Lobbyists and special
interests give money to their campaign committees,
expecting that the "Top" will deliver
all of his members' votes on key issues. The
members, by supporting their "Top," get
the needed campaign cash to get re-elected, and
the "Tops," by controlling the
legislative agenda, make sure that controversial
matters are killed in committee, so that
incumbents need not vote on them and suffer
electoral repercussions.
The
June 30 financial reports disclosed that Madigan
had $1 million in the House campaign account and
$1.29 in the Democratic Party of Illinois account.
Madigan doubles as the Democratic state chairman.
Jones had $1.8 million, Cross $1.16 million and
Watson just over $1 million.
And,
as the adjoining vote
chart indicates, almost every 2004 roll call
was uncontroversial. That's why, when the
"Tops" agree, the deal is done, and the
other 173 legislators invariably vote as they're
told.
Throughout
most of the 1990s, Springfield had two
"Tops" and two
"Irrelevancies." Both Jones, then the
Senate Democratic minority leader, and Lee
Daniels, the House Republican minority leader,
were largely ignored, and deals were cut by the
Republican governor (first Jim Edgar and later
George Ryan) with Madigan and Republican Senate
President Pate Philip.
The
Republicans had a Senate majority from 1992 to
2002, and the Democrats controlled the House for 8
of those years. However, a new post-2000
legislative map could not be agreed upon due to
the divided legislature, so the matter went to a
special commission and a lottery awarded the
tie-breaking vote to the Democrats. The new
legislative boundaries were drawn to ensure a
Democratic dominance, and in 2002 Madigan got a
66-52 majority (up from 62-56 after the 2000
election), and Jones got a 33-26 majority (way up
from the Democrats' 27-32 minority after the 2000
election).
But
Jones' recent experience with "Topdom"
has not covered him with glory. He bungled the
protracted budget negotiations, too quickly
allying himself with Blagojevich, and his Senate
passed spending bills appropriating far more than
Madigan's House. Jones had lived in Madigan's
shadow for the past decade, and his ire was
apparent: He lambasted Madigan for forsaking
"Democratic principles" and suggested
that Madigan attend the Republican presidential
convention.
By
embracing Blagojevich, Jones painted himself into
a corner. Instead of demanding that the governor
adopt the Senate's "Democratic
principles" budget, Jones enthusiastically
backed the governor's position. When Blagojevich
and the other three "Tops" finally cut a
budget deal, Jones had no choice but to go along
or look like an utter fool.
As
a result, there was much grumbling among the
Senate's other 32 Democrats, many of whom suffered
through a decade of irrelevanc. "A number of
(Democratic) senators would like to see Emil
gone," said one area senator. "But the
problem is that there's no plausible
replacement."
The
Senate's 33 Democrats are a diverse and fractious
bunch. There are nine blacks, including Jones, all
but one from Chicago (the ninth being from
Downstate Belleville), and there are four
Hispanics, all from Chicago. The blacks and
Hispanics are more rivals than allies. There are
seven suburbanites, from Cook and Lake counties,
of whom four are strong liberals. There are three
white liberals from Chicago, two representing
Lakefront districts and one from the West Rogers
Park-Skokie-Lincolnwood district. There are two
white ethnics, one each from the Northwest and
Southwest sides. Finally, there are nine
Downstaters, eight of whom are white and most of
whom are conservative on social issues such as
abortion, gun control and gay rights.
The
most influential Downstate senator, Vince Demuzio,
who had served since 1974, recently died and was
succeeded by his widow. The perceived heir
apparent to Jones, age 68, who has served in the
Senate since 1982, was Barack Obama, but Obama is
likely to win Illinois' U.S. Senate seat in
November. So black senators Rickey Hendon (an
assistant majority leader) and Donne Trotter, both
of Chicago, and James Clayborne, of Belleville,
are rivals to replacement Jones.
But
other senators aspire to the Senate presidency:
Miguel del Valle, an assistant majority leader
from Chicago, is the senior Hispanic senator. Pat
Welch, an assistant majority leader from Peru,
first elected in 1982, is the senior Downstater.
Two white Chicagoans, Jim DeLeo, an assistant
majority leader from the Northwest Side, first
elected in 1992, and Lakefronter John Cullerton,
appointed in 1991 and re-elected since, also are
in the mix.
Only
two Democratic seats are vulnerable in 2004, both
Downstate: Gary Forby (D-59) and John Sullivan
(D-47). In all likelihood, the Democrats will
retain their Senate majority through the end of
the decade. Jones' term expires in 2004, and he is
a cinch to win re-election to another 4-year term.
He will surely keep the Senate presidency during
2005-06.
But
unless Jones enhances his performance, he may
eventually find himself dumped by his peers.
Jones' most logical successor is Clayborne, who
would get backing from Downstate whites but not
from Chicago blacks. Hendon and Trotter would not
get backing from Downstaters or Chicago or
suburban whites, nor would del Valle. DeLeo would
be adamantly opposed by blacks, Hispanics and
liberal whites.
So,
according to Springfield insiders, Jones'
successor, in 2007 or 2009, will be the senator
who is everybody's second or third choice, which
narrows it down to two white liberals from
Chicago: Cullerton, age 55, chairman of the
Judiciary Committee; and Ira Silverstein, of West
Rogers Park, age 43, chairman of the Executive
Committee. Phil Rock, a white Democrat from Oak
Park, was the Senate president from 1979 to 1992.
The mere fact that blacks hold nine of 33 seats
does not necessarily insure that a black will
continue to be the Senate president.
The
senators in the attached vote chart include area
incumbents Silverstein (D-8), Cullerton (D-6),
DeLeo (D-10), del Valle (D-2) and Iris Martinez
(D-20), all of Chicago, as well as Dave Sullivan
(R-33) of Park Ridge and Jeff Schoenberg (D-9) of
Evanston. Except for the gun card age reduction,
medical malpractice reform and ephedrine control,
they voted alike on every issue -- most of which
were distinctly uncontroversial.