There always have been geographic rivalries in Chicago. In sports, it's the North Side Cubs versus the South Side White Sox. In Democratic politics, it's the South Siders versus everybody else.

But, mostly invisible to white Chicagoans, is the enduring rivalry of the city's West Side black politicians versus the South Side black politicians.

Chicago's black vote has always been perceived as a monolithic colossus, voting automatically and overwhelmingly for every Democrat on the election ballot and for every black candidate in Democratic primaries. But the between-elections reality is quite different: Black politicians from the South Side have always hogged political glory and government patronage, and West Siders have long detested that fact.

The latest example is the "Stroger Succession," wherein ailing Cook County Board President John Stroger, from the South Side, handed off his nomination for the post in the fall election to his son Todd, the 8th Ward alderman. When county Democratic committeemen met in July, the choice was between Todd Stroger and U.S. Representative Danny Davis (D-7), a West Sider and a former 29th Ward alderman (1979-90) and county commissioner (1990-96). All the white committeemen allied with Mayor Rich Daley and all the black South Side committeemen backed Stroger.

But the West Siders got a sop. Veteran county Commissioner Bobbie Steele, age 69, who has represented the West Side since 1986, was picked to serve through December as the interim board president.

From a West Side perspective, however, the choice of Stroger, age 38, is intolerable. If he wins in November, he'll likely be the board president for the next 20 years. And that means the West Side, which is actually experiencing a loss of black voters, will never elect a board president.

According to Democratic sources, the West Siders are fervently hoping that Stroger loses to Republican Tony Peraica in November. That's their "4-Year Plan." If Stroger is beaten, then a West Sider -- almost certainly Davis -- could make a bid for the presidency in the 2010 Democratic primary.

But don't think the unthinkable. Black West Side committeemen are not about to publicly endorse Peraica. And if they don't deliver their customary 90 percent for Stroger and the whole Democratic slate, they'll be criticized as traitors or incompetents.

 Ironically, the West Side's minimal clout in the Democratic Party will diminish even further by 2010. At present there are five black-majority West Side wards, the 24th, 27th, 28th, 29th and 37th, compared to 15 black-majority South Side wards, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 20th, 21st and 34th.

The registered voters on the South Side number 484,724; on the West Side just 147,196. In the 2004 election 327,239 votes were cast for John Kerry on the South Side while 95,796 were cast on the West Side. In the 2006 primary Stroger got 120,605 votes on the South Side and 32,014 on the West Side.

The black population on the West Side is being pushed out to the western suburbs. In the eight to 10 blocks north and south of the Eisenhower Expressway, from the medical center complex at Halsted Street to Loretto Hospital at Central Avenue, upscale white residents are buying and rehabbing homes or building new structures. That's increasing the white vote in the 24th, 27th and 28th wards.

The Hispanic population is creeping south and west from Logan Square. Just a few years ago, Grand Avenue was the demarcation between Hispanics and blacks. Now many Hispanics have moved south of Grand, changing the population mix in the north end of the 29th and 37th wards and in the west end of the 27th Ward. From the south, the Hispanic population is spreading out from Little Village and has moved north of Cermak Road, the southern border of the 24th Ward, and into the south part of the 28th Ward.

In another decade the five existing West Side wards will have only a slight black majority, and it's quite likely that one will have to be eliminated in order to create a new Hispanic-majority ward out of parts of the 29th, 37th and 27th wards.

The black population is not declining on the South Side, except in the South Loop 2nd Ward. Every other South Side ward that is predominantly black will stay that way, and the black-majority 18th Ward, where Alderman Tom Murphy, who is white, is retiring to become a judge, surely will elect a black alderman in 2007. Hispanics from the Little Village area are spreading into the once predominantly white 13th and 23rd wards, while the black population is increasing in the Far Southwest Side 19th Ward. In the 11th Ward (Bridgeport), the Hispanic population is declining as the area gentrifies and upscale white residents move in.

The clout of the South Side black politicians is augmented by their south suburban allies. Black committeemen from Bloom, Calumet, Rich and Thornton townships stick with the South Side. The West Siders have an ally in west suburban Proviso Township, but it's still a 19-6 advantage for the South in slatemaking, with more than 80 percent of the county's black primary vote coming from the South Side.

Another sore point for the West Siders is the fact that the most powerful committeeman in their area is really a North Sider: Secretary of State Jesse White. White was a longtime protege of former County Board president George Dunne, from the Gold Coast 42nd Ward, and he represented an Illinois House district that included the CHA projects west of Rush Street. The 27th Ward was created in 1991, and White ousted Rickey Hendon as committeeman in 1996. White's protege, Walter Burnett, became alderman in 1995, and he is a staunch Daley supporter in the City Council. White controls thousands of state jobs, and his agenda is to keep himself in his job -- not to help build a West Side political machine.

The most ambitious West Sider is Alderman Ike Carothers, a Daley ally from the 29th Ward, which extends from Barry Avenue to Roosevelt Road between Central and Austin Avenue, and west to Narragansett Avenue north of North Avenue. Carothers beat a Davis-backed candidate for alderman in 1999, and he ousted Davis as committeeman in 2000. Carothers has an interesting pedigree: His father, William Carothers, was the alderman of the 28th Ward from 1980 to 1983, and he later was convicted of taking bribes; his grandfather, Ike Sims, was a longtime state representative.

Carothers' philosophy is not unique in Chicago. He believes in no permanent allies, only in permanent interests (such as his career advancement). In the recent slatemaking, Carothers led the opposition to Stroger, backing erstwhile rival Davis. Other committeemen backing Davis included Ed Smith (28th), Don Harmon (Oak Park) and Karen Yarbrough (Proviso). White and the 24th Ward's Mike Chandler backed Stroger.

Carothers apparently had an ulterior motive: He wants to replace Davis in Congress. Davis is unbeatable in a primary. Carothers ran his sister-in-law, Anita Rivkin Carothers, against Davis in the 2004 primary, and she got 15 percent of the vote. So Carothers wants to move Davis, age 64, up and out. Davis already lost a bid for mayor in 1991, so the only other option for Carothers is to boom Davis for County Board president in 2010. Davis would have to give up his congressional seat to run.

However, should Stroger win in November, acquit himself capably in office, avoid scandal and maintain the South Side's lock on thousands of county jobs, Davis would be a definite underdog in any primary. Should Peraica win, the Stroger patronage empire would collapse and Davis would have a very real opportunity to beat some lesser-known black South Sider in the 2010 primary.

Steele would be a credible contender in 2010, but, according to county sources, she will retire in December and pass her seat to her son, Emmet Steele. As interim president Steele earns $170,000, far more than the $86,000 she earned as commissioner. By retiring as president, her pension would be $136,000 annually; if she stays as commissioner, her pension would be $68,000.

With a 12-5 Democratic majority, Peraica, if victorious, would have to build a governing coalition. But some of his past anti-Stroger allies, such as Forrest Claypool, Mike Quigley and Earlean Collins, will be opposing his initiatives and positioning themselves for a 2010 bid for president.

Going into 2007, incumbent aldermen Carothers (29th), Smith (28th), Chandler (24th) and Burnett (27th) look secure. Their only fear would be an anti-Daley wave, and that would require the mayoral candidacy of a black candidate in conjunction with a slate of anti-Daley aldermanic candidates in the black wards. That's not likely.

The 37th Ward, centering on Austin, is represented by Emma Mitts, a protege of Carothers who first was elected in 2001. She strongly supported the construction of a Wal-Mart store in her ward, and she voted against the "big box" minimum wage ordinance. Expect the unions to field and fund an opponent to Mitts in 2007. However, she was re-elected in 2003 with 73 percent of the vote, and she will be tough to dislodge.