State Representative Lou Lang (D-16), a relatively obscure liberal Democrat from Skokie, hungers to be Illinois' governor.

But an imposing array of obstacles block his path, not the least of which is the fact that incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich currently has $14 million in his campaign account -- having raised $4.7 million during the first half of 2005, and is on track to fulfill his projected fund-raising goal of $25 million for the 2006 campaign.

Lang, age 55, has set a Labor Day deadline to decide whether he will challenge Blagojevich in the March 2006 Democratic primary. He faces an array of imponderables.

Will he have a clear shot at the governor? Or will someone else run and split the anti-Blagojevich vote? With Paul Vallas now out of the race due to his lack of state residency, Lang may get his one-on-one contest, thereby creating a referendum among Democrats on the governor's performance. McHenry County state Representative Jack Franks (D-63) is pondering a run, but he won't run if Lang jumps in, so a September announcement by Lang will deter Franks.

Can Lang secure enough money to be competitive? Lang wants to raise $2 million by Labor Day, and he projects that he will need $6 million for the primary campaign. "If I run, I will get enormous free media," Lang said. "He may have plenty of money and ads, but I will have a great deal of media coverage. He is not a popular governor."

In 2001 Lang traipsed throughout the state trying to line up support for a 2002 gubernatorial bid, but he withdrew from the race due to a lack of financial viability. Will 2006 be any different? "I've gotten a deluge of calls from Democratic leaders throughout the state expressing their dissatisfaction with the governor and urging me to run," Lang said. "I will run if I have the funds in place."

Will those Democratic leaders privately critical of the governor -- who include many Downstate county chairmen, many Chicago committeemen and the governor's father-in-law, Alderman Dick Mell (33rd) -- publicly endorse a Blagojevich opponent? "I can count on them," insisted Lang. Or will the governor's anemic poll numbers, which currently indicate that barely a third of Illinoisans want to re-elect him, shoot upwards once he begins his saturation television ads?

To be sure, the governor's record of fiscal restraint and his refusal to raise the state income or sales tax are politically helpful, but not necessarily in a Democratic primary, in which liberals, minorities and assorted special interests want to support (and fund) a candidate who will spend more state dollars, not conserve them. Blagojevich has inoculated himself against potential Republican charges that he is a big spender or a tax hiker, but among traditional, liberal Democrats, raising taxes or spending ain't a bad thing.

So, in a primary, Blagojevich cannot label Lang a pro-taxing, pro-spending, pro-gambling liberal, because that might actually win votes for the challenger. A more likely scenario is that Blagojevich will attack Lang as a "spoiler," charging that Lang's candidacy will fractionalize the Democrats and enable the Republicans to win back the governorship in 2006.

One can envision the theme of a cascade of negative Blagojevich TV spots: "Lou Lang. Why is he running for governor? He'll only divide the Democrats and give the governor's job to a Republican. Rod Blagojevich has been a strong, effective, reform-minded Democratic governor. Don't let Lou Lang do the Republicans' dirty work."

From a Republican standpoint, a Democratic primary would be a godsend. The Blagojevich campaign is flush. The Republicans' hope: Make him spend it all. In a primary against Lang, Blagojevich would have to spend at least $6 million, and that's money that Blagojevich wouldn't have to fund a flurry of television and radio ads attacking the Republican nominee during May, June and July of 2006. Governor Jim Edgar did that in 1994, attacking and isolating Dawn Clark Netsch as a tax-hiking liberal. Broke after her primary, Netsch did not respond -- and she was indelibly defined. Blagojevich could do likewise, attacking the cash-depleted Republican nominee as an "extremist" or finding some other pretext to adversely define his Republican foe.

And, most importantly, does Lang, an accomplished, articulate18-year legislator -- a champion of gaming taxation as a solution to Illinois' fiscal ills, chairman of the House Gaming Committee and an assistant House majority leader -- risk his career on a long-shot gubernatorial challenge? "If I win, I'll be a giant killer," Lang said. "If I beat a sitting Democratic governor, the notoriety and momentum will certainly elect me governor (in November 2006). I will beat any Republican."

If Lang loses, he's politically finished. Conversely, if he stays put, he has a reasonable chance to become the Illinois House speaker when Speaker Mike Madigan retires. Notably, Madigan has publicly endorsed Blagojevich for another term. "I'm still weighing my decision," Lang said.

On issues, Lang sounds like a Republican. "(Blagojevich) is hostile to business," he said. "Illinois has created fewer new jobs than any of the adjoining states, and Illinois has lost more jobs to other states than any other adjoining state." This, of course, is political doublespeak, meaning that there's job growth in Illinois but that it's not as rapid as elsewhere. Lang blames the lack of robust growth on the "proliferation of fees and costs of regulation" imposed by the Blagojevich Administration. "We must change the business climate in Illinois," he said.

On gaming, Lang is a strong advocate of expansion and of using additional revenues for education. He supports the award of a riverboat gambling license in the Chicago area, an idea that Blagojevich has long opposed. "He's got his head in the sand," snapped Lang. "Leaders don't make promises for the sake of getting elected. The governor should do what is good for Illinois, not just what is good for re-election."

Lang concedes that Blagojevich has done some good. "He's expanded KidCare funding and hiked educational funding," he said. But, he added, the Blagojevich record over the past 3 years is one of "governing by press conference and sound bite, of picking fights with his family for political gain, and of using tricky and tacky phrases to get headlines. He has not been a mature or responsible governor."

Lang insists that Blagojevich is vulnerable in a 2006 primary. A May poll by SurveyUSA pegged the governor's approval level at 36 percent and his disapproval at 54 percent, while among Democrats it was 48 approve/43 disapprove, with blacks giving him a 52/39 ratio, whites 31/60, women 39/47 and men 33/62. A June SurveyUSA poll had Blagojevich at 37/56. Lang said that his polls show similar results, especially Downstate.

To win, Lang needs 630,000 votes. Here's why:

Blagojevich won the 2002 primary by just 25,469 votes, getting 36.5 percent of the total cast, with his winning margin coming from Downstate. In the 96 Downstate counties, Blagojevich got 135,105 votes (57.3 percent), to 53,385 for Vallas and 47,215 for Roland Burris. Lang said that his polls show that almost 70 percent of Downstaters disapprove of the governor. That's significant, but not determinative. Turnout in the 2002 primary was 1,252,516, of which 18.8 percent (235,705 votes) came from Downstate. Presuming that Lang gets 70 percent (165,000) of the Downstate vote in 2006, and presuming that the statewide 2006 turnout is again in the realm of 1.25 million, he would have a lock on 13 percent of the primary vote.

The 2002 primary turnout in the outlying suburban counties of DuPage, Lake, Will, McHenry and DeKalb was 156,079, with Vallas topping Blagojevich 79,197-51,275 and Burris finishing third with 25,607 votes and with Blagojevich getting just 32.8 percent of the vote. To win, Lang would have to get more than 65 percent of the vote (101,000 votes) in those counties.

So that means that to reach of 630,000 votes, Lang needs 364,000 votes in Cook County, or roughly 48 percent of the total. The county turnout in 2002 was 747,418, with the combined Vallas-Burris vote amounting to 534,382 (71.4 percent). Blagojevich had just 213,028 votes (28.6 percent), getting 137,120 votes (28.5 percent) in Chicago and 75,980 (24.8 percent) in the suburbs.

The black vote is key. And so is money. Blagojevich needs at least 55 percent of the Chicago vote to win, and he'll spend lavishly on radio stations that target the black market, lambasting Lang as a crypto-Republican. Even if white Democratic committeemen do little to aid the governor, it's hard to conceive of Blagojevich not getting at least 50 percent of the Cook County vote. However, a narrow Blagojevich win would cripple him for November.

So here's my unsolicited advice to Lou: If you're running to win, don't bother. But if you're running to embarrass "The Kid" and to demonstrate the shallowness of his support, then go for it.