The
secret for the success and political longevity of
Democrat Dick Durbin, Illinois' senior U.S.
senator, can be summarized in three words:
Location. Location. Location.
Like
the explanation for successful real estate
marketing, the liberal and obnoxiously partisan
Durbin, age 61, is fortunate that he represents a
so-called "blue" state -- the People's
Socialist Republic of Illinois. Were he from
Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska or even Iowa or
Missouri, Durbin not only would be toast when he
sought re-election, he never would have been
elected in the first place.
Nevertheless,
the bland, boring and utterly uncharismatic Durbin
is the most influential Illinoisan in the U.S.
Senate since the late Everett Dirksen, who served
from 1951 to 1969 and who was the Republican
minority leader from 1959 to 1969. As the
Democratic Senate minority whip, Durbin ranks only
behind U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-14) as
the most powerful Illinoisan in Washington.
As
the Democrats' official attack dog, with nary a
good word to say about President George Bush,
Durbin gets lots of face time on television news,
on Sunday morning talk shows and on Fox, CNN and
C-SPAN. And, as the Democrats' unofficial
investigator of the Guantanamo Bay military prison
in Cuba, Durbin got headlines in 2005 when he
compared U.S. treatment of Iraqi prisoners to
"Nazis, Soviets in their gulags or some mad
regime . . . that had no concern for human
beings." Durbin later made a teary-eyed
apology for his remarks on the Senate floor.
Durbin
also stepped on his tongue when, as a Senate
Judiciary Committee member, he was grilling U.S.
Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito on whether
there was "constitutional support" for a
woman's right to choose an abortion and if he
would promise to uphold Roe v. Wade. Durbin said
he was "troubled" by Alito's refusal to
take a position, but then Tom Coburn, an Oklahoma
Republican, shot back that he was
"troubled" by Durbin's contradictory
positions on abortion, brandishing a 1989 letter
in which Durbin called for the reversal of Roe v.
Wade. In 1996, when he announced for senator,
Durbin switched from pro-life to pro-choice. As a
congressman from the Springfield area for 14
years, Durbin had always opposed abortion rights.
A
longtime foe of private oil drilling on public
lands and in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife
Refuge, Durbin again stepped on his tongue when he
accused Senator Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) of somehow
encouraging oil industry executives to lie by not
requiring them to be sworn prior to testimony at a
joint committee hearing. Stevens ripped Durbin for
violating Senate Rule 19, which bans imputing to
other senators "conduct or motive unworthy or
unbecoming a senator." Durbin never
apologized, claiming Stevens was not on the floor
when he made his remarks.
Durbin
also has relentlessly attacked the Bush
Administration for its "drill and burn"
policies and for the fact that gas was $1.50 a
gallon when Bush took office. Of course, it never
occurred to Durbin that more domestic oil
production might lower gas prices.
On
immigration, Durbin did support the "guest
worker" compromise, but he opposed limiting
it to illegal aliens in the U.S. for 2 to 5 years
and also putting a cap on permanent resident
admissions.
On
Iraq, Durbin is squarely aligned with the
"cut and run" crowd, having supported
resolutions to withdraw all U.S. troops by
December of 2006 and to redeploy military
personnel and withdraw by July of 2007.
Durbin
was quick off the blocks on the Patriot Act
reauthorization, contending that the president
should be censured or even impeached if he
violated the law on domestic spying. But that
controversy soon died, and Durbin ended up
supporting the act's renewal.
Durbin
has been a popular senator, having won election to
his first term in 1996 with 56.1 percent of the
vote by a margin of 655,204 votes over Republican
Al Salvi, whom the then-obscure Durbin attacked as
an "extremist." Salvi won 52 of 102
counties, but Durbin carried Downstate by 48,385
votes and Cook County by 664,461 votes, while
Salvi carried the Collar Counties by 57,642 votes.
Durbin won because he spent $4.9 million and made
Salvi unelectable. The fact that Bill Clinton
carried Illinois by 754,723 votes, getting 54.3
percent of the votes cast, also helped. Durbin was
in the right place at the right time, and he had
the right foe.
During
most of 2001 Durbin toyed with the idea of running
for governor, but he opted to run for re-election
and faced Republican Jim Durkin, an unknown state
representative. In another great Democratic year,
Durbin was re-elected by a margin of 778,063 votes
(60.3 percent), carrying 77 of 102 counties. He
won Downstate by 197,690 votes and Cook County by
587,898 votes, losing the Collar Counties by 7,525
votes. The difference between 1996 and 2002:
Durbin cut his Collar County loss by 50,000 votes
and upped his Downstate margin by nearly 150,000
votes. The money disparity also doomed Durkin: He
spent just $794,634, to Durbin's $4.9 million.
Durbin's
term expires in 2008, which looms as another great
Democratic year. If the Democrats don't take
control of the U.S. Senate, which now is 55-45
Republican, in 2006, they surely will do so in
2008, making Durbin the majority whip. Republicans
had been grooming U.S. Representative John Shimkus
(R-19) of Collinsville to run in 2008. Shimkus won
Durbin's House seat in 1996, and he pledged to
serve only 12 years, but he has since recanted
that promise and will stay put.
Durbin
could have trouble against Joe Birkett, the DuPage
County state's attorney, if he is elected
lieutenant governor in 2006 on the ticket with
Judy Baar Topinka. But Birkett lost a 2002 bid for
attorney general, and he may not want another
loss. A 2005 SurveyUSA poll, taken after the
Guantanamo flap, gave Durbin a 46/34 percent
approve/disapprove rating, making him the 88th
most popular senator out of 100. The 2008 outlook:
Durbin will be well funded and unbeatable. He's
lucky he's running in Illinois.
Of
course, Durbin is to his Democratic colleague,
Barack Obama, what a stagehand is to rock star.
Obama was elected in 2004 by an astounding margin
of 2,206,766 votes, getting 69.9 percent of the
total. Despite being a black Chicagoan, Obama
carried 92 of 102 counties. Obama, age 45, is much
in demand on the national fund-raising circuit,
and he is viewed as a likely Democratic nominee
for vice president or president in 2012 or beyond.
As
is detailed on the adjoining vote
chart, Obama and
Durbin voted alike on every issue but one: Obama
opposed redeploying Iraq troops and withdrawing by
July of 2007, although he did vote for a
withdrawal by December of 2006. Unlike Durbin,
Obama is not a vehement secularist, having been
quoted as saying that he "has a personal
relationship with Jesus Christ" and warning
Democrats that they must take religion seriously
and that "we worship an awesome God in the
blue states."
Obama's
term expires in 2010, and the 2005 poll gave him a
71 percent approval rating. Obama has voted as a
liberal, but has not been virulently ideological
or partisan. He is shrewdly laying the groundwork
for a presidential bid, eschewing the "I am a
victim" and "blame the whites"
rhetoric of Jesse Jackson's generation. As
demonstrated in Illinois, Obama is the kind of
black politician that most whites will not
hesitate to support. He will win another term
easily in 2010.