"I'm incompetent, indecisive and ineffectual, and I'm going to raise state taxes rather than cut state spending, but vote for me because my opponent's crazy." That, in a nutshell, is Governor Pat Quinn's pitch to voters and his rationale for election.

And, to some extent, it's working. A Rasmussen Reports poll in March had Republican Bill Brady ahead of Quinn by 47 percent to 37 percent; in June Rasmussen had Brady ahead by 43-40; in July, it was back to 47-37.

For an incumbent, Quinn's numbers are abysmal. Three-fifths of the voters consistently reject him. But Brady, the unknown Bloomington state senator, is getting no traction . . . showing no growth. In 2006 Judy Baar Topinka got 39.3 percent of the vote.

That leads to two conclusions:

First, Brady has failed to define himself and his vision. As a result, Quinn is filling the vacuum and defining Brady as a nutcase.

And second, the election will be decided by one-fifth of the electorate -- the independent voters. Quinn and Brady both have their 40 percent base. If the election is a referendum on Quinn's performance, the independents will break heavily against Quinn and support Brady, independent Scott Lee Cohen or Green Party candidate Rich Whitney. But if Quinn demonizes Brady as an "extremist" and gets a quarter of that vote, he can win.

Despite the recent quote from state budget director David Vaught that he "expects a substantial income tax increase" in January if Quinn is reelected, from 3 percent to 5 percent on individuals, despite Quinn's laughable call for "shared sacrifice" while raising the pay of 35 staffers by 11 percent, and despite the negativity emanating from the Rod Blagojevich trial, the Brady campaign is mired in inertia. Brady is, to use the hackneyed expression, poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Brady's opposition to abortion, even in cases of rape or incest, coupled with his support of gun rights, his advocacy of reducing Illinois' minimum wage by a dollar to the federal level, and his entirely legal nonpayment of state income taxes due to his business losses, have given Quinn an opportunity: Rather than defend his dismal performance, Quinn is focusing on Brady.

Illinois ' budget, which extends through June of 2011, has a $13 billion shortfall. Of the $56 billion in expenditures, 25 percent is to Medicaid and health services, 25 percent is to school districts and local government, 8 percent is to transportation, and 10 percent is to debt and pensions. Each 1 percent hike in the state income tax generates $2.8 billion. Quinn borrowed $3.7 billion for pension payments, but $4.7 billion in state bills remain unpaid. Quinn has proposed cuts of $1.4 billion, barely 10 percent of the deficit, with $337 million in cuts to education and $891 million in "cuts to come."

And where is Brady in this fiscal fiasco? He has pledged to roll back a tax hike enacted after the November election, before he becomes governor in January. Brady opposes any tax increase, but he should be getting hoarse shouting six words: " New Jersey . It can be done."

In 2009 Republican Chris Christie, a former federal prosecutor, challenged New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in a state that had 115 tax hikes in a decade, a $7 billion shortfall in 2010, and a projected deficit of $11 billion in 2011. Christie was mocked when he promised not to raise taxes, but he was elected, defeating Corzine by 1,108,778-1,002,560, with 49 percent of the vote and with an independent candidate getting 6 percent. Corzine won in 2005 by 1,224,493-985,235, getting 53 percent of the vote. His vote declined by 221,933, and the Republican candidate's vote rose by 123,543.

Incredibly, Christie kept his promise. No pay hikes for state employees. No overtime. No tax hikes. No borrowing. Cuts in pay and deferred pension payments of $3.1 billion. Privatization. Cuts in education and local aid. We're all suffering, Christie said, and state workers and state contractors must do likewise. If private sector workers are losing their jobs and having their retirement investments collapse, why should public employees be immune? Despite a Democratic legislature, Christie cut $11 billion in state expenditures.

Ditto in California , where much-maligned Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, derided as a liberal, cut the state budget by $19.1 billion.

The point is this: It can be done. Other than public safety, there are no "essential" services. Illinois ' budget can be slashed by $13 billion, but Quinn does not want to alienate important Democratic constituencies -- specifically the vast social services and education bureaucracies -- and do the deed.

Brady must show some intestinal fortitude. He must focus his campaign on one prevailing theme: No new taxes. He must not allow Quinn to sidetrack voters on personalities. He must say: New Jersey cut spending by $11 billion. Illinois can cut spending by $13 billion. It is possible, but it won't be done by Quinn.

From a fund-raising perspective, Brady is competitive. He's raised $3.6 million in 2010, to Quinn's $5.1 million. That's just a fraction of the $24 million Blagojevich spent in 2006.

Brady's base is in the 86 rural counties south of Interstate 80, where voters cast 1,355,978 votes (37.7 percent of the total) in 2006. He will get at least 55 percent of the vote there, giving him just under 750,000 votes. The other 16 counties, including Cook, Lake, DuPage, Kendall, Kane and Winnebago, stretching to Moline , are mostly urban and suburban, and voters there cast 2,231,698 votes in 2006. Brady will get 35 percent of that vote, giving him about 775,000 votes, for a statewide total of 1,525,000. In a turnout of 3.5 million, that amounts to a Brady vote of 43.5 percent.

But more than 56 percent of Illinoisans -- some 1,950,000 -- will vote for somebody other than Brady. That means at least 13 percent, or 455,000 voters, have to opt for Cohen or Whitney to elect Brady. Whitney got 361,336 votes in 2006. If Quinn gets 80 percent of the non-Brady vote, he wins with 1,550,000 votes.

My prediction: Quinn's baggage is humongous, but Brady has not yet made Quinn's incompetence the issue. Quinn's anti-Brady ads will drive voters to Cohen and Whitney, who will get 500,000 combined votes. That means Brady wins by 25,000 votes.

Here's a look at the secretary of state race:

"He's the poster boy for what's wrong in Illinois politics," said Robert Enriquez of Democrat Jesse White, Illinois ' secretary of state since 1998. "He's been on a multitude of state, county and city payrolls for over 50 years. He's been derelict by failing to upgrade the office's antiquated technology. He has over 30 employees who earn nearly $200,000 annually. Over 20 percent of the office's jobs are superfluous, and he engages in patronage politics by putting Democratic workers on the payroll."

White, age 76, broke into politics in the 1950s as a protégé of George Dunne, the 42nd Ward Democratic committeeman and the Cook County Board president from 1969 to 1990. He is the Democratic committeeman of the West Loop 27th Ward. He organized his Jesse White Tumblers, a durable acrobatic group, in 1959, and he served 16 years as a state representative and 6 years as the Cook County recorder of deeds. He was fortunate in 1998, when the favored Penny Severns withdrew from the secretary of state primary due to her illness and endorsed White.

White then beat Tim McCarthy by 100,195 votes, with 55.8 percent of the vote in the primary, and he demolished 1996 Republican U.S. Senate loser Al Salvi in the election by 437,206 votes, getting 55.5 percent of the vote. White was reelected in 2002 by 1,338,509 votes (getting 67.9 percent of the vote) and in 2006 by 1,045,399 votes (with 62.8 percent).

Enriquez, who was born in Honduras to American parents, is an Aurora businessman and White's obscure Republican challenger. "I will reform the office," he promised.

"That's just nonsense," retorted Dave Druker, White's campaign spokesman. "We have reformed the office. We have an inspector general. We have abolished the culture of corruption that existed under George Ryan. We have had no scandals."

White's predecessor was Ryan, the former governor who was convicted of crimes committed while he was serving as secretary of state from 1991 to 1998.

According to Druker, White has implemented a graduated program for teen driver permits, required out-of-state commercial drivers to take a written test, established online services, and worked to enact laws banning supervision for speeders 40 miles an hour over the limit, requiring an in-car breathalyzer for DUI offenders and banning in-car texting. Essentially, White has not been George Ryan, and voters know it.

"There is much to be done," Enriquez said. He proposes an insurance database so that uninsured drivers are immediately tagged, a ban on outsourcing the manufacture of license plates, a reduction in business incorporation fees to encourage entrepreneurs, and more diversity in hiring. Of the office's 3,650 employees, only 2 percent are Hispanic, Enriquez said.

The outlook: Hispanics comprise 14.6 percent of Illinois ' population but only about 225,000 voters. Enriquez said that they will vote their ethnicity and that they will vote Republican. No way. White, who is almost iconic, will win with 63 percent of the vote -- but it will be his last term.