Have no doubt. U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2) is running for mayor in 2007. At a July 15 rally organized by the Northwest Side Democratic Organization, the black South Side congressman laid out his issues and strategy. Jackson intends to run as a political reformer who happens to be black, not as the black community's candidate. He will attempt to build a biracial, anti-Daley coalition, and he does not seek racial polarization. And, to win, he needs a huge black turnout and at least 25 percent of the white vote. Here's his game plan:

First, Jackson, age 40, will relentlessly and repetitiously attack systemic corruption in Chicago, as manifested by 31 federal indictments of city employees. "We need to change the ethic and the attitude of city workers and city officials," proclaimed the eloquent Jackson, who has the stem-winding, inspirational speaking skills of a Baptist minister. "Politicians serve the people; the people don't serve the politicians."

Jackson declared that it is time to embark on "a righteous cause. Let us pledge to permit no more fraud and corruption. Let us pledge to permit no more scandal and abuse." The congressman understands that he must make 2007 a referendum on Mayor Rich Daley and that the central issue must be corruption and Daley's accountability for it. By emerging early as the reform candidate, fully 19 months before the February 2007 election, Jackson is trying to preempt the anti-Daley field, and also to discourage any other black contenders.

In the mayoral races of 1989, 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2003, Daley carefully framed the contests as a choice between himself, the successful white mayor, and the "disruptive" black challenger. He avoided making the race a referendum on himself, and he won each election handily. Chicago voters didn't want any change. In 2007, however, large numbers of previously pro-Daley, but now "reform-minded," white voters may want change, and they could bolt the mayor. And if Jackson positions himself as an acceptable, competent, non-racially divisive alternative, he could win.

Second, Jackson will try to engender economic populism and geographic solidarity, pitting Chicago's relative "have nots" against the Daley-allied "haves." At the July rally, Jackson ripped the Daley Administration's "preoccupation with the Loop . . . and with big projects." Instead, Jackson said, city dollars "should be spent in the neighborhoods, and not just where the rich live . . . not just on Hyatt, Hilton and UPS." He added that whites on the Northwest Side "have more in common with blacks on the South Side than they do with whites in the Loop or in Bridgeport," and that all Chicagoans "deserve a comparable quality of life."

Clearly, Jackson is trying to build the perception that as a mayoral candidate, he will be a geographic and economic ally of the Northwest Side, and not a racial rival. He is trying to cobble together an outlying, outsiders' coalition.

And third, Jackson needs to excite his base. He needs to portray the 2007 election an as epic struggle for Chicago's soul and future -- thereby prompting an epic-like turnout. He needs to get black voters registered. And he needs to develop anti-Daley sentiment in white and Hispanic wards, which he will do by fielding and funding challengers to pro-Daley aldermen.

City turnout has steadily dwindled since 1983, when more than 1.2 million Chicagoans voted in the Washington-Epton mayoral election. It was roughly 900,000 in 1989, 650,000 in 1991, 550,000 in 1999, and a modern low of just 450,000 in 2003.

And, most notably, it has been black turnout that has imploded. Harold Washington won the 1983 Washington-Byrne-Daley Democratic primary with 419,266 votes, getting 36.3 percent of the total cast, and he upped that to 668,176 (51.4 percent) in the subsequent election. In 1987 he got 599,881 votes (53.6 percent). But then Washington died, black politicians started squabbling, black voters became disunited and discouraged, and the vote for subsequent "black movement" candidates declined to 412,864 (40.3 percent) in 1989, then to 159,608 in 1991, increased slightly to 207,464 in 1996, then declined to 106,567 (28 percent) in 1999 and to just 61,888 (14 percent) in 2003. In sum, the vote for black mayoral candidates has plummeted tenfold over 20 years, from 668,176 to 61,888.

But, surprisingly, the Daley vote has bottomed out, in a peaking and dipping arc. In the tempestuous 1983 primary, Daley amassed 343,506 votes (29.8 percent); in the 2003 election he got 347,698 votes (79 percent) -- putting him back where he once was.

Turnout in the 1983 Democratic primary was 1,142,228, while in the 1983 election it was 1,288,102; in the 2003 election it was an anemic 442,772. In between, Daley garnered 574,619 votes (56.1 percent) in the 1989 election, 450,155 (71 percent) in the 1991 election, 350,785 (60.1 percent) in the 1995 election, 418,211 (72 percent) in the 1999 election, and 347,698 (79 percent) in the 2003 election. The obvious conclusion: Daley's political machine can count on a base vote of about 350,000, which is more than enough to win as long as the anti-Daley base doesn't turn out. But what happens if the anti-Daley black base turns out, and there's attrition of the mayor's white and Hispanic base? Then the mayor loses.

The city population according to the 2000 census is 44 percent white, 37 percent black and 19 percent Hispanic. The voting population is 50 percent white, 45 percent black and 5 percent Hispanic. To keep his job in 2007, Daley needs 90 percent of the white and Hispanic vote and 5 percent of the black vote. To beat Daley, Jackson would need 99 percent of the black vote and 25 percent of the white and Hispanic vote.

At the recent rally, Jackson proclaimed that the registration of 650,000 new voters would "change the culture of Chicago politics and restore trust in government." That's absurd. The problem is black turnout in mayoral races, not black turnout in general. Look at the record: In the 2004 Democratic Senate primary, Barack Obama got 301,199 votes citywide and 208,762 in the three black-majority city congressional districts. Obama's five white opponents got a total of 146,221 votes, meaning that Obama carried the city by 2-1 and got about 100,000 white votes. In the 2004 election Obama got 801,991 votes in Chicago and 359,463 votes in the city's 19 black-majority wards.

In other words, Jackson does not need to register more black voters, he just needs to turn them out.

Jackson also needs to resurrect Obama's black/white liberal coalition. And this is where Jackson's "Coconate connection" comes in. Frank Coconate, of Edison Park in the 41st Ward, has been a minor political player in Northwest Side politics for two decades, losing three bids for state representative and founding the Northwest Side Democratic Organization. A 27-year employee in the city water department and an outspoken critic of Daley and his policies, Coconate was fired just days before the Jackson rally.

After ushering Coconate around at a June Operation PUSH breakfast, where his controversial father was present, Jackson leapt to Coconate's defense at the July rally, blasting the Daley Administration for violating Coconate's right to freedom of speech. "We are fighting in Iraq for freedom and democracy, but we don't even have that in Chicago," Jackson said.

Coconate has developed an "Opposition 2007" plan which is enormously helpful to Jackson. It takes roughly 300 nominating signatures to run for alderman in each ward, and Coconate has embarked on a quest to recruit and train anti-Daley aldermanic candidates in all of the Northwest Side white-majority wards. He has a commitment from Pat McDonough, who recently was fired as a city plumber, to run for alderman in the 48th Ward. According to Coconate, he already has recruited anti-Daley candidates in the 30th, 33rd, 36th, 41st, 43rd, 45th and 46th wards, and he's still looking for candidates in the 39th, 40th, 47th and 50th wards. Coconate said that he is inclined to give 38th Ward Alderman Tom Allen "a pass," since Allen has been critical of Daley's job privatization policies. He said that he has been "approached by seven people" who want to run against 45th Ward Alderman Pat Levar. The "Opposition 2007" candidates' mantra will be identical: Vote for change. Vote against Daley. Vote against Daley's alderman.

This puts every pro-Daley alderman in an acute predicament: Do they leap to the mayor's defense? Or do they prevaricate and equivocate, putting distance between themselves and their mayor? And if they don't work for Daley, then who is out there working for the mayor? And, given the collapse of the mayor's political operation, who has he got to work for him anyway?

Either way, local dissonance helps Jackson. If 25 to 30 percent of the voters in the predominantly white Northwest Side wards decide to vote anti-Daley, then Jackson has a very real chance to win.