Among Democrats in Washington, chromosomes count. As the party of so-called “diversity,” Democrats have an unofficial leadership quota system based on race and gender. That can’t happen yet in the U.S. Senate, since there are too few blacks and women. But it is a reality in the U.S. House.

            And this gives U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9), who represents a district encompassing the north Chicago Lakefront, the near North Shore suburbs, and parts of the Northwest Side, a phenomenal opportunity to exploit her chromosomes. Because she is a woman, a fervent liberal, and has ties to the allies of House Democratic minority leader Nancy Pelosi, Schakowsky could move into the House’s Number Four Democratic leadership in 2007, as Democratic Caucus vice-chairman. And, if Democrats take control of the House, and Pelosi becomes speaker, Schakowsky could become Caucus chairman.

            Schakowsky, of Evanston, age 61, was first nominated for the House in 1998, defeating two male foes in a tough Democratic primary: Howie Carroll, a 26-year state senator, with a base in Chicago’s 50th Ward, and Jay Pritzker, an heir to the Hyatt Hotel fortune. She astutely exploited both her gender and her political base, getting 77 percent of the vote in her Evanston base, and getting a decent vote elsewhere; she won because her foes split her less liberal, Chicago-based opposition. In a turnout of 69,662, Schakowsky got 45 percent of the vote, to Carroll’s 34 and Pritzker’s 21. Had Pritzker not run, Carroll would likely have won.

            Schakowsky was then elected to the House in 1998 with 75 percent, and re-elected in 2000 with 76 percent, in 2002 with 70 percent, and in 2004 with 75 percent. The 9th District was reconfigured in 2001, eliminating portions of the 41st, 45th and 39th wards, and taking in Maine Township.

            There is no doubt that Schakowsky, currently a chief deputy minority whip, can and will be re-elected in the 9th District in 2006, but her rise to the top of the congressional heap can be impeded by two developments. First, her husband, Bob Creamer, is under federal indictment on tax-evasion and bank fraud charges. It is alleged that he failed to pay $300,000 in taxes, and that he wrote $2.3 million in bad checks. Creamer, a longtime political organizer and activist, was executive director of Illinois Public Action Fund; Schakowsky was a director of the Fund from 1976 to 1985. No allegation of wrongdoing has been lodged against Schakowsky, but she may be called to testify in Creamer’s trial, which is set for September of this year. If Creamer is convicted, that will be a dark cloud hovering over Schakowsky’s ambitions.

            And second, the 2006 race for Caucus vice-chairman has been handicapped to be déjà vu all over: namely -- a replication of Schakowsky’s 1998 primary win. Her foes include three men: New York’s Joe Crowley (D-7), age 43, from Queens; Connecticut’s John Larson (D-1), age 56, from Hartford; and Texas’s Ruben Hinojosa (D-15), age 64, from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. That should insure Schakowsky’s win, since they are dividing the anti-Schakowsky vote. But geography may offset Schakowsky’s gender and ideological advantage.

            Larson, a moderate, is backed by most New England congressmen, and by many southerners. Crowley, a moderate-liberal, is backed by the New York delegation, and by a lot of Californians; given his youth, he’s a certainty to become speaker some day if he’s in leadership. Hinojosa will get support from the dwindling Texas delegation, and from congressional Hispanics. The latest public tally, among the Democrats’ 203 House members, is 40 for Crowley, 38 for Schakowsky and 17 for Larson. That leaves 108 uncommitted Democrats – and more if the party wins more House seats. The election will be held subsequent to the 2006 congressional election.

            So who wins? The Democrats’ minority leader is Nancy Pelosi, age 65, of San Francisco, a liberal; the minority whip is Maryland’s Steny Hoyer, age 66, a moderate and a rival of Pelosi; the Caucus chairman is New Jersey’s Bob Menendez, age 51, a Cuban-American from Union City in Hudson County, an ally of Hoyer; the Caucus vice-chairman is South Carolina’s James Clyburn, age 64, a black liberal. Menendez is expected to be appointed to the U.S. Senate in 2006, opening his job for Clyburn. The current leadership is composed of a white woman, a white guy, a Hispanic guy, and a black guy. So who replaces Menendez in the hierarchy?

            As the adjoining vote chart indicates, Schakowsky’s voting record is that from the Democratic wing of the Democratic party. She opposed certifying Ohio’s electoral votes for George Bush, backed a ban on college military recruiters, opposed a bar on federal courts’ ruling on the constitutionality of “God” in the Pledge of Allegiance, opposed out-of-state abortions for minors, opposed a restriction on same-sex marriages, opposed making permanent President Bush’s 2001 income tax rate cuts, and opposed the repeal of the federal inheritance tax. She’s in the Democratic mainstream.

But, in the Caucus race, neither Pelosi nor Hoyer are endorsing, and several outspokenly feminist congresswomen are backing Larson and/or Crowley. Schakowsky, as chairwoman of Women’s LEAD, has raised $1.3 million for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Crowley has donated  $905,500. For Schakowsky, the December 2006 Caucus vice-chairman’s vote (or that of chairman if Pelsoi is speaker) is a make-or-break proposition. If Larson drops out of the race and endorses Crowley, then Schakowsky’s toast.

In 2006, either Schakowsky breaks onto the national stage as part of the Democratic leadership, or she permanently fades into the background as an utterly irrelevant ultra-liberal Washington player. But even if Schakowsky becomes Caucus chair or vice-chair, given her age, it’s unlikely that she would rise to become speaker in the next ten years.

            The adjoining vote chart also includes west suburban Republican Henry Hyde (R-6), North Shore Republican Mark Kirk (R-10), and McHenry County Democrat Melissa Bean (D-8), as well as Chicago Democrats Rahm Emanuel (D-5), Luis Gutierrez (D-4), and Dan Lipinski (D-3).

            Note that Kirk digresses from Hyde on issues like abortion and stem cell research, while Lipinski – much like his father, Bill Lipinski – is a social conservative who votes like Hyde on those issues. But even Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, strays from Left Field occasionally, such as on votes to cap attorney fees on federal class-action lawsuits, and to impose fines on the broadcasting of obscene or profane material. And Gutierrez, a liberal, deviated once, and voted to impose restrictions on gifts to Cubans.

            Hyde is retiring in 2006, and Bean faces a difficult race for a second term. But the other five incumbents should be easily re-elected.