The 2002 election is still three months away, but Democratic politicians in Illinois are already counting their proverbial unhatched chickens.

            The Democrats’ top-of-the-ticket nominees – Rod Blagojevich for governor, and U.S. Senator Dick Durbin for re-election – are maintaining sizeable leads over their respective Republican opponents. And their strength, coupled with escalating voter anxiety over the stock market and the economic picture, in what will likely be a low-turnout election year, spells a “sweep” for them. Democrats expect to win every statewide constitutional office, keep (and expand) their current majority (62-56) in the Illinois House, and convert their current minority (27-32) in the Illinois Senate into a majority.

            If that occurs, it would be total Democratic dominance unmatched since the Depression-era 1930s. The Republicans’ Last Man Standing would be U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald, whose term expires in 2004. If the Democrats oust him, their party’s statewide subjugation of their opposition would be absolute.

            As in any election cycle, either presidential-year or mid-term, the outcome is driven by anger and discontent, factors which encourage a higher turnout of one party’s base vote. In 1994, for example, Republican animosity toward Bill (and Hillary) Clinton fueled a heavier-than-normal voter turnout among the party’s base, which was not counteracted by the Democratic base, which was less energized. The result: Republicans won every Illinois office, plus the state legislature, and captured both the U.S. Senate and U.S. House.

            In 1990, Jim Edgar beat Neil Hartigan for governor by 1,653,126-1,569,217. In 1992, Clinton won Illinois with 2,453,350 votes, while then-President George Bush had 1,734,096 votes. The energized Democratic vote soared by nearly 900,000 over 1990, while Bush barely topped Edgar’s vote. In the 1994 governor’s race, incumbent Edgar got 1,984,318 votes, while Democrat Dawn Clark Netsch got 1,069,850. She had nearly 1.4 million fewer votes than Clinton, while Edgar got 250,000 more than Bush. Clearly, the Republican base in 1994 was more energized.

            In 1996, with Clinton on the attack against Newt Gingrich and the “heartless” Republicans, Democrats were again angered and energized, and Clinton again won Illinois, amassing 2,314,744 votes, to Bob Dole’s 1,587,021. Each party’s vote was down by roughly 150,000 from 1992. In the 1998 governor’s race, Republican George Ryan got 1,714,094 votes, while Democrat Glenn Poshard got 1,594,191. As 1998 dawned, Republicans were initially angered and then energized by Clinton’s conduct in the impeachment inquiry, but then, by October, there was a major backlash, with angry Democrats flocking to the polls to support Clinton and chastise the Republicans. This time, Ryan got 125,000 more votes than Dole (and 270,000 less than Edgar in 1994), while Poshard got 740,000 fewer votes than Clinton in 1996 (but 525,000 more than Netsch). Democrats resoundingly won two statewide offices -- Secretary of State (by 437,206 votes) and Comptroller (614,413 votes) --  and barely lost the governorship (by 119,903 votes), the U.S. Senate seat (by 98,545 votes), and the state treasurer’s post (by 62,279 votes).

 In 2000, it was a combination of 1992 and 1994 – as both parties were energized. Democrat Al Gore amassed 2,589,026 votes (or 136,000 votes more than Clinton in 1992 and 275,000 more than Clinton in 1996), while George Bush got 2,019,421 votes (or 285,000 more than his dad in 1992, and 443,000 more than Dole in 1996). Yet Gore still carried Illinois by a margin of 569,605 votes (54.6 percent).

Taking top-of-the-ticket results as each party’s respective Illinois base, then the average statewide Democratic vote in the past six elections is 1,931,729, while the Republicans’ is 1,782,012. In higher-turnout presidential years, the Democrats’ average vote is 2,452,373, while their mid-term average is 1,411,086, a drop-off of over one million votes; the Republicans’ average vote in presidential years is 1,780,179, and in mid-term 1,783,846, for an drop-off of zero. Overall, the Democrats have an average edge per election over the Republicans of  about 150,000 votes.

So, in 2002, any unusual energization of the Democratic base, coupled with any decline in the Republican base, would spell a significant Democratic victory.

Going into 2002, Blagojevich is no Netsch, nor is Republican Jim Ryan a Jim Edgar. Blagojevich won’t equal the 2000 Gore vote, but an energized Democratic base means that he will equal and easily exceed both the 1998 Poshard vote and the 1990 Hartigan vote – which means more than 1.6 million, but less than 2.6 million; he will likely poll around 1.8 million. Ryan, conversely, is saddled with both George Ryan’s problems, plus Illinois’ general pro-Democratic inclinations; add to that a possible diminution in his base due to economic factors, and he would be lucky to poll 1.7 million, and could quite possibly decline to as low as 1.5 million. That means a Blagojevich victory margin of 300,000-plus.

Here’s a look at the major contests:

Governor: In 1998, George Ryan didn’t have an energized Republican base, but he picked off the votes of at least 200,000 Democrats, primarily from Cook County, who were repelled by Poshard’s social issue conservatism. To win in 2002, Jim Ryan needs to solidify the 1.5 million Republican base, and chip upwards of 200,000 normally Democratic votes away from Blagojevich. That means going very negative on Blagojevich, and doing it very soon. If the Democratic base surges this year, or the Republican base shrinks, Jim Ryan is a goner. My prediction: Ryan comes in with less than 1.6 million, and Blagojevich is the next governor.

Secretary of State: Incumbent Jesse White beat a very flawed Republican (Al Salvi) in 1998 by a huge margin. His 1,874,626 votes was near the Democratic average, while Salvi’s 1,437,420 was far below the Republican average, meaning that many Republicans opted for White over Salvi. White’s stewardship of his office has been less than stellar, and he has had his share of personal problems. But he will win easily in 2002 unless his Republican foe, Kris O’Rourke Cohn, gives voters some plausible reason to oust him. That means a nasty and negative TV onslaught. She hasn’t done so yet, and she lacks the finances to do so in the autumn campaign.

My prediction: White wins big, with well over 2 million votes..

            Attorney General: Jim Ryan first tried for the job in 1990, losing to Democrat Roland Burris 1,656,045-1,550,831 (a plurality of 95,214), but then coming back in 1994 to beat big-spending Democrat Al Hofeld 1,651,976-1,371,295  (a plurality of 280,681), and winning a second term in 1998 by 2,026,781-1,242,979, a plurality of 783,802 over Miriam Santos, then the Chicago city treasurer. In the last 50 years, a Republican has been attorney general for 30.

            In 2002, the contest is between Joe Birkett, the DuPage County state’s attorney, and Lisa Madigan, a state senator since 1999, who is the daughter of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, who is also the state Democratic Party chairman. Jim Ryan’s average vote in the last three elections was 1,773,196, which is almost exactly the Republican base vote. Given the fact that Lisa Madigan’s credentials for the job are paltry, and that every legal bar association and almost all the media will endorse Birkett, due to his greater prosecutorial experience, he has to rank as the favorite.

            His endorsements will move 5-10 percent of the independent vote, which will be critical. My prediction: Depite Mike Madigan’s Herculean efforts, Birkett will triumph by 25,000 votes.

            Comptroller: Incumbent Democrat Dan Hynes is bursting with ambition, but he took a pass on governor in 2002, and now wants to run against Fitzgerald in 2004. If Blagojevich is elected governor, Hynes’ state ambitions are stymied. So a Fitzgerald run is his most feasible option. Hynes’ 2002 Republican is the unknown and underfinanced Tom Ramsdell, of Wilmette, who has gained absolutely no traction in his race. Hynes had 1,895,273 votes in 1998, which is well above the Democratic average. My prediction: Hynes, age 37, will win big in 2002, will be a major player on the statewide scene for the next decade, and will be the frontrunner for senator in 2004 – unless former U.S. Senator Carol Moseley-Braun runs.

            Treasurer: Incumbent Republican Judy Baar Topinka was elected in the 1994 Republican sweep, beating Democrat Nancy Sheehan by 77,018 votes, and getting re-elected in 1998 over Democrat Dan McLaughlin by 62,279 votes.  Her votes in 1994 (1,504,335) and 1998 (1,610,498) were slightly below the Republican average, and her 2002 Democratic opponent is State Representative Tom Dart, from Chicago’s Southwest Side.

            My prediction: The Treasurer’s office is low on voters’ radar screen, and unless Topinka spends big bucks on TV ads to persuade voters that she merits a third term, she will lose.

            Illinois Senate: The Democrats drew the new lines for the state’s 59 senate districts, and are likely to transform their 27-32 minority into a 31-28 (or, at worst, a 30-29) majority. That means Emil Jones, a black Chicago Democrat, will be Senate president. But Senate Democrats are a fractious bunch, with black Chicago Democats often at odds with white Downstate Democrats, and with white Chicago and suburban Democrats holding the balance of power. If Blagojevich becomes governor, he can’t expect the Senate to be a rubber-stamp. My prediction: It will be a 30-29 Democratic Senate, which will mean even more Democratic fractiousness.