The prospective 2010 gubernatorial candidacy of mayoral brother Bill Daley would be the equivalent of a neutron bomb on an Amazon jungle. It would vaporize the vegetation, clear the field, end the suspense, close the door -- and, most importantly, terminate the scandal-stained Blagojevich Administration, which has become a definite liability for Democrats.

There is minimal doubt that if Daley runs in 2010, he will be nominated and elected. Daley, a mortgage banker for JP Morgan Chase, served as the U.S. secretary of commerce from 1997 to 2001 and was Al Gore's 2000 campaign manager.

Daley, age 59, has the qualities that Illinoisans yearn for after 10 years of inept and immoral governors, namely, competence, credibility and incorruptibility. Daley would not use the governorship's leverage to raise money from state contractors; there would be no "pay to play." He would not use the job to generate headlines or create controversy, or as a steppingstone to run for president. In short, he would govern -- a concept which incumbent Rod Blagojevich fails to grasp.

Why can't state government work? Why do Democrats bicker? What's wrong with Governor Blagojevich? For 26 years, from 1977 to 2002, under Republican governors and mostly Democratic legislatures, the business of governance got done. In the past 6 years, with Democrats controlling the governorship and General Assembly, pandemonium and quarreling have reigned.

In 2010 Illinois' voters will demand a change. If Democrats can't get their act together and offer a credible alternative to Blagojevich, a Republican might win.

Here's the current field:

Among the Democrats, the embattled Blagojevich likely will seek renomination, and his potential foes include U.S. Senator Barack Obama (if he doesn't win the presidency), state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn, state Comptroller Dan Hynes, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, former Chicago schools chief executive office Paul Vallas and state Representatives Jack Franks of McHenry and Lou Lang of Skokie. If Blagojevich is indicted before the March 2010 primary, his campaign will collapse; if he's convicted or resigns, Quinn would become governor. As an alternative, Blagojevich could run for senator.

Among the Republicans, it's state Senators Bill Brady of Bloomington, Dan Rutherford of Pontiac and Christine Radogno of Lemont, state Representative and House minority leader Tom Cross of Plainfield, Chicago businessman Ron Gidwitz and DuPage County State's Attorney Joe Birkett.

There is some doubt that Daley, the youngest son of the late mayor, will run, as he equivocated back in 2001. Had he run in 2002, he would have won. Had Daley run for U.S. senator in 2004, he would have won, rendering Barack Obama a still-obscure Illinois state senator and making Hillary Clinton the Democrats' 2008 presidential nominee.

At a time when Blagojevich is beset by almost-daily revelations of mendacity, incompetence and corruption, Daley is the perfect anti-Blagojevich: He doesn't need the job, as he is making millions in the private sector; he'll work with his brother, Mayor Rich Daley, to make sure that city problems get solved; he won't pick fights with Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan; and he won't govern by "triangulation," like Blagojevich, grandstanding and finding a Clintonesque "third way" so as to differentiate himself from Madigan.

But Bill Daley can't vacillate beyond the November election, which will set the Illinois stage for 2010: If Obama is elected president, Blagojevich will appoint a replacement to serve the remainder of his term, to 2010. He could appoint someone credible, such as Tammy Duckworth or U.S. Representatives Jan Schakowsky or Jesse Jackson Jr., who would then run as a team with him in 2010. Or he could appoint a caretaker, such as Secretary of State Jesse White, who would serve for 2 years and not seek election. If he opts for the latter, Blagojevich could run for senator himself, which would be a much easier task than winning renomination as governor.

And, with White in Washington, Blagojevich could appoint his ally, state Representative Jay Hoffman, as secretary of state, with the understanding that Hoffman would pull a George Ryan and coerce the office's thousands of employees to contribute to and work for the governor.

If Obama loses to John McCain, he may conclude that being Illinois' governor is a better avenue to a 2012 presidential run than being senator.

Of course, a Bill Daley candidacy would prompt a titanic South Side Irish "Family Feud" between the Daley, Madigan and Hynes clans, and that could benefit Blagojevich in a primary, presuming that he is not indicted or convicted.

If Bill Daley were governor, the "Daley Clan" would control the state, the city of Chicago and Cook County's government (with John Daley as the County Board Finance Committee chairman). That's a trifecta. Every key lever of power in Illinois would be held by a Daley.

If Lisa Madigan, the speaker's daughter, were governor, the "Madigan Clan" would control the state executive branch and half the legislative branch.

If Dan Hynes were governor, the "Hynes Clan," which dominates the Southwest Side 19th Ward, would control the state plus the Cook County sheriff's and assessor's offices.

If Bill, Lisa and Dan all ran for governor, along with Quinn, then Blagojevich could win with as little as a quarter of the vote. That won't happen. If Bill Daley were to run for governor, the clans' deal would be to back Lisa for senator and Dan for attorney general; or, if Obama is running for re-election, then Lisa for re-election and Dan for lieutenant governor.

But Quinn, age 60, is in an up-or-out situation. He will not run for re-election. If Blagojevich resigns, is convicted or impeached before 2010, Quinn will become governor, and he will have enhanced viability and visibility. If Blagojevich lingers, Quinn must break free. If Quinn announces he is running after the 2008 election, he could co-opt the anti-Blagojevich mantle and dissuade Daley. But nobody -- and that means Daley and Madigan -- wants the mercurial Quinn as governor. That would be like a third Blagojevich term.

Does Bill Daley have any baggage?

Daley went through a nasty divorce, and unseemly revelations from their divorces imploded the 2004 U.S. Senate candidacies of Democrat Blair Hull and Republican Jack Ryan. Daley was the president and chief operating officer of the failed Amalgamated Bank from 1990 to 1993, and he was the special counsel to President Bill Clinton for the North American Free Trade Agreement, which has been criticized as costing U.S. jobs, but only Blagojevich would have the temerity to try to smear Daley, and most of the governor's campaign cash is being spent on his lawyers.

In any other state, Blagojevich's malfeasance and misdeeds would create a groundswell of support for a Republican replacement. Not in Illinois, which has become prohibitively, if not hopelessly Democratic. If, by some fluke, Blagojevich were renominated, he would lose to any Republican opponent. But if Obama, Daley, Quinn, Madigan, Hynes, Franks, Vallas or Lang - none of whom are tarnished by an association with the governor - were nominated, they would beat any Republican foe.

During the 1980s and 1990s, Illinois' governor's races were competitive, and Republicans won because Democrats fielded flawed candidates. Democrat Adlai Stevenson was forced to run as the Solidarity Party candidate in 1986, Neil Hartigan lost black votes in 1990 because he backed Daley against Harold Washington, Dawn Clark Netsch supported a state income tax hike in 1994, and socially conservative Glenn Poshard impelled legions of pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control liberals to vote for George Ryan.

Revulsion toward George Ryan sank Republican Jim Ryan's campaign in 2002, when he lost to Blagojevich by 252,080 votes. George Ryan won by 119,303 votes in 1998, so the governor's corruption (even though he was not yet indicted), cost the Republicans more than 350,000 votes. In 2006, after spending $25 million, Blagojevich beat Judy Baar Topinka by 367,416 votes. Will Blagojevich's alleged corruption cost the Democrats 400,000 votes?

My prediction: Voters want a different Democrat as governor, not a Republican governor. There is no animosity toward legislative Democrats, just disgust with Blagojevich. Another Democrat will be elected governor in 2010, but it won't be Daley unless he gets off his butt and into the race very soon.