Nothing strikes more terror into the hearts of Springfield's Democratic General Assembly majority than four digits: 1994.

In that auspiciously Republican year, with an unpopular Democratic president and a liberal congressional agenda, Republican Governor Jim Edgar was reelected by a 914,468-vote margin, with 63.9 percent of the vote, Republicans won the five other statewide offices, and the Democrats' 67-51 stranglehold on the Illinois House was eliminated. The Republicans gained 13 seats, taking control by a 64-54 majority and ousting Mike Madigan as speaker.

It could be deja vu all over. "I take nothing for granted," said state Representative Joe Lyons (D-19), who was unopposed for reelection in 2006 and 2008 and who occupies an overwhelmingly Democratic district on the Northwest Side. "2010 could be another 1994," Lyons predicted.

If Lyons is in danger, there's a whole world of hurt awaiting Democrats elsewhere.

Madigan has been the House speaker for 26 of the past 28 years, and he symbolizes the malaise infesting state government. The Democrats hold 70 of 118 House seats, just two shy of a 72-vote super majority. The state is in dire fiscal straits, with a $7 billion revenue shortfall anticipated in fiscal year 2011, and an income tax hike looms, but Madigan won't pass a tax increase now because that would jeopardize his Democratic majority in November.

Is this not irresponsible? Is the role of a majority to make tough decisions and govern? Or is it to propagate itself?

"It's called an election," said Lyons, who has served since 1996, who is part of the Madigan leadership as an assistant majority leader, and who will turn age 59 this month. "An income tax hike is historically passed in the first year of a new governor's administration," Lyons said, noting increases enacted by governors in 1969 (Dick Ogilvie), 1983 (Jim Thompson), 1987 (Thompson) and 1991 (Edgar). "It gives the people 3 years to see how the money is spent, and not just react instantly."

Does that mean a tax hike is a certainty in 2011? "We can't cut ourselves out of this situation," Lyons said. "We need to make budgetary cuts, but we also need to increase revenue." One more time: Does that mean a tax hike? "Everything's on the table," Lyons replied. Message to voters: That is not a "no."

"I will never, ever vote for an income tax hike, or any tax increase, or any 'revenue enhancement,' if elected," pledged David Anderson, Lyons' obscure but energetic Republican opponent. State spending "has increased by 40 percent since 2000, but revenue hasn't," Anderson said. "If we returned to 2000 spending levels, we could solve the so-called crisis in 2 years."

Anderson, who holds a doctorate in chemistry and who operates an area business, said that the budget should be subjected to a "forensic audit."

We need to review it line by line," Anderson said. "We need to make cuts, not raise taxes."

Lyons, who is the cousin of the late 45th Ward Democratic committeeman Tom Lyons and the current ward organization president, is the consummate political insider. Since 1983 he has been the county's director of training and education, a job that pays $96,000 annually. He does not get paid on days that he is in Springfield.

"I have a brand name and reputation," Lyons said. "I regularly attend church, school and chamber of commerce functions and meetings. I've been a precinct captain since 1974. I'm a conservative on social and fiscal issues. I reflect my district's views." Lyons is among the few anti-abortion Chicago Democrats, and he opposes gay marriage.

Lyons' DNA, plus the fact that he was a firecracker precinct captain and popular within Tom Lyons' organization, was sufficient to get him slated and to win the 1996 Democratic primary for state representative. The longtime incumbent, the 39th Ward's Bill Laurino, retired after 26 years. Lyons got 50.8 percent of the vote against three foes. Lyons won the 2004 primary with 70.1 percent of the vote.

Lyons has never had a tough race against a Republican. In 1996 he beat Don Hodgkinson 21,307-9,684, getting 68.7 percent of the vote. In 1998 he was unopposed and got 19,542 votes. In 2000 he beat Mitchell Kulwin 23,534-6,728 (77.8 percent). In 2002 he was unopposed and got 22,117 votes. In 2004 he beat Roman Wiewiora 25,897-7,392 (77.8 percent). In 2006 he was unopposed and got 20,401 votes. In 2008 he was unopposed and got 27,144 votes.

That's an average of 22,848 votes in the past seven elections and an average of 23,579 votes in the three contested elections. The Republican candidates have averaged 7,934 votes. Lyons has averaged 75 percent of the vote.

So why even waste ink to handicap this race? Lyons presumably is unbeatable. On the contrary, Anderson said, listing three reasons:

First, the 19th District's population is 82,926, with a voter registration of just over 50,000. Hence, Lyons never got a majority of the registered vote.

Second, in a "wave" election, one party can be buoyed by a vote surge of 10 to 15 percent. Simmering voter anger exacerbates the anti-incumbent vote, while voter disgust diminishes the pro-incumbent vote. In 2006 and 2008, angry anti-Bush Democrats turned out while disgusted pro-Bush Republicans didn't. Also, 10 to 20 percent of the independents switched to vote Democratic.

A similar "wave" erupted between 1992 and 1994. Laurino won the old 15th District in 1992 22,024-12,973, getting 62.9 percent of the vote. He was unopposed in 1994, but his vote dropped to 16,238 -- a 26.2 percent decline.

Third, voters are both angry and cynical. Republican polling "clearly indicates that voters want new people" but that they also view a state tax hike as inevitable, Anderson said. Anderson, who works precincts every day, acknowledges that he is not emphasizing his party affiliation. "They don't want a Republican," he said. "They just want to get rid of those who are in control."

Adding that Lyons has been in office for 14 years, that he works for Todd Stroger's county government, that he is "working on three pensions," that he is "under Madigan's thumb" in the House leadership and that "he will support an income tax hike" make an upset possible, according to Anderson.

 "The more people discover about Joe Lyons the less they like him," Anderson said. "He's beatable."

And fourth, Anderson said, "I need to change voters' pessimism. We don't need to hike taxes. Raising taxes is the easy choice. Cutting spending is the hard choice. I will make the hard choices." If Anderson can make the contest a referendum on taxes, he'll have a chance.

The 19th District encompasses almost all of the 45th and 38th wards and parts of the 36th and 30th wards, extending from Devon Avenue to Addison Street, between roughly Narragansett Avenue and Cicero Avenue. Lyons has the backing of Democratic committeemen Pat Levar (45th), Patti Jo Cullerton (38th), Bill Banks (36th) and Ariel Reboyras (30th). There is no tangible Republican presence. Anderson has to build his own organization.

There will be no spillover effect from the volatile 10th Illinois Senate District contest, in which Republican Brian Doherty, the 41st Ward alderman, is facing John Mulroe. The Senate district includes the House districts of Lyon and Mike McAuliffe's (R-20). Doherty admits that he "won't help" Anderson and that he "supports" Lyons. Banks is backing Doherty, according to the alderman. Levar and Cullerton supposedly are supporting Mulroe, but that remains to be seen. If Mulroe loses, their ally, 41st Ward Democratic Committeeman Mary O'Connor, will be favored to win Doherty's aldermanic seat.

In the convoluted, incestuous and ever-changing Northwest Side political scene, this much is certain: Anderson is the outsider, and none of the insiders want him to win.

As for funding, Anderson expects to raise and spend $20,000. As of Jan. 1 Lyons had $33,549 on hand. Lyons has never had to spend a hefty amount in his past races, but if a "wave" develops, Madigan will ensure that Lyons has the $75,000 he needs to win.

To be sure, Lyons has brought back "pork" to the district, including Kennedy Expressway bridge repairs and state road resurfacing. He also has focused on senior citizen issues, sponsoring the Assisted Living Act, which upgraded care-giver levels and won him Maryville's "Guardian Medallion" award. Lyons has attached his name as a sponsor to a multitude of bills. As part of the leadership, he could become the speaker when Madigan retires.

But this election, in the 19th District, is about future propensities, not past performance. It's about solving an acute fiscal crisis. It's about raising taxes or slashing spending. It's about whether Madigan will ram through a tax hike if Pat Quinn is reelected governor. And it's about whether Joe Lyons will knuckle under and vote his party over his district.

My prediction: Anderson will eclipse 40 percent -- a sizable "anti-tax" surge. If Lyons thereafter votes for an individual income tax hike, he will put himself at serious risk in 2012. "If I lose, I will run again," Anderson promised.