Odd as it may seem, the public's distress over the situation in Iraq appears to be having an adverse effect on Governor Rod Blagojevich's popularity.

With unceasing strife, death and confusion in Baghdad, voters in Illinois are now markedly less tolerant of unceasing strife, political bickering and budgetary confusion in Springfield.

A mid-May poll by the Chicago Tribune put Blagojevich's job approval rating at just 40 percent; that's way down from his 55 percent in February. The governor's campaign fund reportedly spends $1,000 a day on polling, and he can trot out poll results at any time, but he has yet to release any polling that disputes the Tribune's numbers. Blagojevich used to proclaim that he was America's most popular governor. That idiotic refrain is no longer trumpeted.

Blagojevich's problem is that he envisions himself as the next Bill Clinton, who was a creature of his pollsters and who mastered the technique of constantly pitting himself against others. Clinton would poll to find a popular issue, proclaim his support for it, attack those who were against it, hold some press conferences and photo ops, buttress his image as a "fighter," and then forget it and move on to the next issue. With a Republican Congress through most of his term, Clinton did not attempt to govern through conciliation and compromise. Instead, his game plan was to engender conflict and blame others for lack of results, but to quickly take credit for any accomplishments.

That's been Blagojevich's strategy. Orchestrated by chief of staff Lon Monk and deputy governor Brad Tusk, Blagojevich has spent the last 17 months bolstering his image as a fighter. He generates headlines when he defies Mayor Rich Daley or Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, or when he proclaims that he's against raising income taxes or granting a casino license to Chicago -- and that he's "keeping his promises."

To be sure, Blagojevich is great as a candidate and great as a campaigner. But as a governor, he has been a great flop. Mayor Richard J. Daley once observed that good government is good politics. What Blagojevich has failed to grasp is that a governor is supposed to govern, and not just campaign.

One of the most popular governors in America is California's Arnold Schwarzenegger. Like Blagojevich, Schwarzenegger promised that he wouldn't raise taxes. Like Illinois, California faced a huge budget shortfall. The current Illinois budget is $53 billion, and the projected revenue shortfall for fiscal year 2005 is $2.3 billion; the current California budget is $99 billion, and the projected 2005 revenue shortfall is between $12 and $24 billion. Like Blagojevich, Schwarzenegger used borrowing and spending deferments to close a $38 billion shortfall in 2004. But, unlike Blagojevich, Schwarzenegger -- who has a Democratic legislature -- used conciliation and compromise to achieve his goal. He did not attack or criticize the Democrats, but he made it clear that he would blame them if they failed to work with him to solve the fiscal problem.

 One of the most popular governors of Illinois was Jim Thompson. For 12 of his 14 years, the Democrats controlled the General Assembly. Like Blagojevich, Thompson was a perpetual campaign machine, forever traipsing around the state. He never governed like a conservative, and the state budget increased from $10 billion to $26 billion. His spending on roads and capital projects created jobs, patronage and goodwill among Springfield politicians. Thompson was a competent governor, but too liberal to get the Republican presidential nomination.

Blagojevich clearly aspires to be president, and he is relentlessly positioning himself as the populistic champion of the common people against the "special interests." The governor's target is 2008. However, if Democrat John Kerry wins the presidency in 2004, then Blagojevich's timetable will be pushed back to 2012 or later.

Blagojevich is not on Kerry's short list of vice-presidential picks for 2004, and he's on the non-list of future presidential picks among Springfield and City Hall insiders. In his brief tenure as governor, Blagojevich has alienated the state's Democratic establishment. Of course, both Daley and Madigan may be retired when Blagojevich runs for the White House, but, in order to run for president, Blagojevich must either (1) still be governor and have compiled a credible, popular record, or (2) have retired as governor (not having been defeated) and have the solid backing of Illinois' Democrats. At present, both those options look remote.

The 2006 election is far away, so Blagojevich can repair some of his political wounds. But, to date, he has made three huge mistakes:

Mistake Number One: He estranged himself from the guy who put him on the track to be governor: Alderman Dick Mell (33rd), his father-in-law. Mell repeatedly assured his fellow ward committeemen and aldermen that the spigot of state patronage would open and flow freely if Blagojevich won. It hasn't. There are virtually no state jobs flowing to Chicago ward organizations.

George Ryan, during his last year as governor, engineered the passage of an early-retirement bill that prompted 11,000 state employees to retire. That was supposed to cost the state $622 million; it is now projected to cost $2.45 billion. And now Blagojevich proposes cutting the state's workforce of 64,000 by 3.6 percent (2,300 jobs). Most of the vacant positions are unfilled. "All he is is mouth, mouth, mouth," Alderman William Beavers (7th) reportedly said. "He's a one-termer."

Mistake Number Two: He estranged himself from Daley, saying that his "vision for Illinois" would not allow a city-owned casino. Such a casino allegedly would generate $300 million in annual revenue for Chicago and $700 million for the state. "It's too easy," said the governor of Daley's plan, which he promised to veto if it passed the legislature. "The world doesn't work that way."

Message to Governor Rod: The world does work that way. Voters crave simple, easy solutions to difficult problems. The 2005 state budget has a $2.3 billion hole, and a casino, which could be operational within a year, would help close it. To be sure, Blagojevich looks tough standing up to the mayor. But Daley will remember, and reap his revenge later.

Mistake Number Three: He has estranged himself from the Democratic majority in the General Assembly, especially Madigan. The Democrats have not had control of the governorship and the state Senate and House since 1975-76. It was expected that they would work together to pass their agenda, but the governor repeatedly emphasizes that he will fight the "old way" and that his priority is to "reform" state government.

Madigan, who has been speaker for 20 of the past 22 years, is accustomed to quietly cutting deals with Republican governors. He's not accustomed to being pilloried as an ogre by a rookie Democratic governor. Madigan proposed a "zero growth" 2005 budget, which Blagojevich promptly rejected, calling it a "do nothing" budget. The governor's budget contains roughly $400 million in new school funding and $600 million in new Medicaid funding; he also proposed $400 million in new business taxes and threatened to lay off 6,000 state employees if the tax hikes weren't approved. The governor also wants to tap $1.7 billion from various state funds to close the revenue deficit.

Then Attorney General Lisa Madigan, the speaker's daughter, issued a legal opinion that a 20-year, $216 million mortgage on the Thompson Center, which was approved by the legislature, is unconstitutional. It was not approved by a three-fifths majority, as is required for all long-term state debt. That further increased the state's revenue shortfall.

Blagojevich then attacked Lisa Madigan, saying that "it's her father" who precipitated the ruling. A furious rebuttal ensued, with one female state senator calling him a "Neanderthal," and state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka calling him an "incompetent governor" who is "nothing more than a male chauvinist pig."

If no budget is passed by July 1, or if Blagojevich vetoes a "zero growth" budget, then state government could be shut down. In pondering his decision, the governor should remember this:

First, the economy is rebounding, so the state's revenue projections will be higher in 2006 and 2007.

And second, the electorate is increasingly inclined to want competent and conciliatory leaders. That means that politicians who are fighters, blamers and shirkers are less and less palatable.

If Blagojevich doesn't quickly get in step with the "old way," he will be out of the way in 2006, after one term as governor.