Illinois is not Ground Zero in national Democrats' 2008 effort to pad their 233-202 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, but there are opportunities for four pick-ups. Republican-held seats in Illinois' 6th, 10th, 11th and 14th districts are viewed as vulnerable, and if former House speaker Dennis Hastert retires, a Democrat could win his seat.

Conversely, if Republicans are to regain House control, they must defeat Democratic incumbent Melissa Bean (D-8) in the northwest suburbs. She won with just 50.9 percent of the vote in 2006.

Democrats hold a 10-9 majority in the Illinois House delegation, but congressional voting doesn't reflect statewide voting. In 2002 Republican congressional candidates got 1,557,183 votes, to 1,740,541 for Democratic candidates. Dick Durbin the U.S. Senate race won by 2,103,766-1,325,703. In 2004 Republican congressional candidates got 2,271,676 votes, fewer than George Bush's statewide vote of 2,345,946, while Democrats got 2,675,273 votes, behind 3,597,456 for Barack Obama and 2,891,550 for John Kerry.

In 2006, with voters reacting adversely to Bush and the Iraq War, Republican congressional candidates got 1,442,969 votes, to 1,987,114 for Democratic candidates -- a 544,145-vote differential. Proportionally, Democrats should have an 11-8 majority.

Here's a preview of 2008 contests:

14th District (south and west suburban Elgin, Aurora, Geneva, Saint Charles, Batavia and Oswego in Kane and Kendall counties; DeKalb, Dixon, Sterling and Tampico, in DeKalb, Lee, Henry and Whiteside counties):  Hastert, age 65, first elected in 1986, was the House speaker from 1999 to 2007. He is an icon in his district, and he is unbeatable. A fervent free trader, he aspires to become ambassador to Japan, a post held by his Democratic predecessor, Tom Foley, during the Clinton Administration.

But all depends on a Republican winning the presidency in 2008. Failing that, Hastert could resume the speakership, should Republicans gain a net of 16 House seats in 2008. Neither is likely. Expect Hastert to retire in 2008, and not to resign earlier. Washington Republicans fret that a Democrat could win a special election.

Democrats are deliriously optimistic that they can win the seat. First, they note that President Bush won the district with just 54 percent of the vote in 2000 and with 55 percent in 2004. That's a Democratic base of about 45 percent.

Second, Hastert's winning percentage declined from 74.2 percent in 2002 to 68.6 percent in 2004 and to 59.8 percent in 2006. Hastert's obscure 2006 Democratic foe, Jon Laesch, ripped him for his alleged complicity in the congressional page scandal involving a gay Florida Republican congressman and for his support of Bush. Hastert got 135,198 votes in 2002 in a turnout of 182,363, 191,616 votes in 2004 in a turnout of 279,206, and 117,870 votes in 2006 in a turnout of 197,144. Comparing the nonpresidential years of 2002 and 2006, Hastert's vote was down by nearly 20,000, and the Democratic candidate's was up by more than 30,000.

Third, there is a credible Democratic contender: state Representative Linda Chapa LaVia (D-83) of Aurora, age 40, a Mexican American who was first elected in 2002. According to the 2000 census, the 14th District had a Hispanic population of 19 percent, which has since increased. LaVia prefers to run in a special election, so she does not have to give up her Illinois House seat.

And fourth, the Republicans might nominate a nutty, unelectable candidate who would run on issues such as abortion and immigration. Democrats salivate about facing Jim Oberweis, a wealthy dairy magnate and a xenophobic immigration opponent who lost statewide Republican primaries in 2002, 2004 and 2006. However, Oberweis, of Aurora, age 59, now known as the "Milk Dud," seems more inclined to run for governor in 2010.

The 2008 field minus Hastert is: (1) state Representative Tim Schmitz (R-49) of Batavia, age 41, a social conservative who would be backed by Hastert's organization and by Illinois House Republican leader Tom Cross (R-84) of Plainfield; (2) state Senator Chris Lauzen (R-25) of Aurora, age 54, a certified public accountant and a staunch fiscal conservative who lost a 1998 race for state comptroller and earned Hastert's ire by criticizing congressional pork projects; (3) state Representative Patricia Reid Lindner (R-50) of Sugar Grove, age 66, whose mother and grandfather both held the congressional seat; and (4) Kane County Board chairwoman Karen McConnaughay, who is quite popular.

The early outlook: Schmitz benefits if both Oberweis and Lauzen run, splitting the hard right vote. Lindner benefits if she's the only woman running. But if it's Lauzen-Schmitz-Lindner, Lauzen will win. Except for Oberweis, a Republican keeps the seat.

11th District (far southwest suburbs: Joliet, Kankakee, Streator, Ottawa, Morris and LaSalle, taking in Will, Kankakee, Grundy, LaSalle, Bureau and parts of Woodford and McLean counties): When the proverbial "Love Boat" docked in Republican incumbent Jerry Weller's district, Democrats thought they had an issue, namely, human rights.

Weller, age 49, recently married Zury Rios Sosa, the majority leader of Guatemala's Congress. Her father, Efrain Rios-Montt, known as "El General," was the country's military-installed dictator during 1982 and 1983, and he allegedly was responsible for genocide among Mayan Indians. Weller's 2004 Democratic foe ripped Weller for failing to denounce Rios-Montt's "brutality" and called for him to resign as a member of the House International Relations Committee.

Weller, first elected in 1994, cruised to an easy win in 2002, getting 124,192 votes, or 64.3 percent of the total. He got 173,057 votes (58.7 percent) in 2004, barely running ahead of Bush. In 2006 Democrat John Pavich, a onetime CIA analyst, ripped Weller for his ties to Hastert and Bush and for taking trips paid for by convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. He also snidely said that Weller should be spending more time in Illinois, not Guatemala. Weller won 109,009-88,846, with 55.1 percent of the vote.

The outlook: Weller's political baggage is getting heavier, his support is slowly evaporating, and Democratic strength is growing in Will County, but unless the Democrats find a top-tier challenger who can spend more than $1 million, he will hold his seat.

10th District (Cook County's North Shore and east Lake County): National Republicans rave that incumbent Mark Kirk is the "perfect fit" for his upscale district, namely, liberal on social issues but fiscally conservative. Kirk supports abortion rights, gay rights, gun control and stem cell research, and until 2007 he also supported President Bush's foreign policy and the Iraq War.

That latter apostasy almost "unfitted" Kirk from his district. After initially winning in 2000 by 5,658 votes, with 51.2 percent of the votes cast, Kirk, age 47, upped that to 68.8 percent in 2002 and to 64.1 percent in 2004. But Kirk's 2006 Democratic foe, Dan Seals, called for a timetable for withdrawal, ripped Kirk for supporting the Iraq invasion, claimed that Kirk supported his party on "85 percent of House votes" -- and almost won.

Kirk got 121,582 votes in 2000, 128,611 in 2002, 177,493 in 2004 and 107,929 in 2006 -- an alarming trajectory. Ironically, in 2003 Kirk called for the Bush Administration to prepare an exit strategy and said "Iraqis need to be running Iraq." He spent $3.1 million in 2006, and he beat Seals by 13,651 votes. But Kirk got the voters' message: get the U.S. out of Iraq or get beat in 2008. Kirk was one of 16 Republican congressmen who in 2007 opposed Bush's "surge" plan in Iraq. That caused some grumbling among conservatives, and it could lead to a primary challenge. Seals, who is black, is running again, in a district that voted 53 percent for Kerry in 2004 and 51 percent for Al Gore in 2000. If the Iraq War remains unresolved and a strong Democratic presidential contender sweeps the district with upwards of 55 percent of the vote, Kirk will lose.

The early outlook: Seals raised and spent almost $2 million in 2006, but he was not aided by national Democrats. In 2008 he will be, and he will spend $3 million. If there are still body bags coming home from Iraq, reserve one for Kirk. In his increasingly liberal district, Kirk is looking more and more like a political fatality.

6th District (DuPage County and western Cook County suburbs): To run or not to run (in 2008)? That is the question. Democrat Tammy Duckworth, an Army helicopter pilot who lost both legs in Iraq, got 48.7 percent of the vote in 2006. Republican state Senator Peter Roskam beat her by 4,810 votes in an open-seat race. Duckworth's celebrity gave her enormous visibility, but Roskam had the support of the DuPage County Republican machine. Roskam won DuPage County by 6,778 votes, while losing Cook County by 1,968 votes.

After her defeat, Governor Rod Blagojevich appointed Duckworth to be the director of the state Department of Veterans' Affairs. Duckworth, who wants to go to Washington, has a painless or painful choice: Either focus on her state job and hope that a new Democratic president would appoint her to head the federal veterans' department, or keep her state job and run against Roskam again.

Duckworth couldn't beat non-incumbent Roskam in 2006, a great Democratic year, but 2008 could be a greater Democratic year. My prediction: Duckworth won't run, and with desultory Democratic opposition, Roskam will win.