A statesman once remarked that there are no permanent allies, only permanent interests.

Politics in the west and south Cook County suburbs and in the Northwest Side and adjacent suburbs is no aberration. Todd Stroger, the much-maligned Cook County Board president, is departing, and the 2010 races for county commissioner in the 9th, 16th and 17th districts can be summarized as follows: Permanent self-interest has formed permanent alliances and created permanent enemies.

It requires a scorecard, intense concentration and an understanding of the turf involved to comprehend whose alliance detests whom.

Those in the  "anti-anti-Stroger" faction, a group of former insider Republicans organized by Ed Vrdolyak and led by county Commissioner Liz Gorman (R-17), detest the "anti-Stroger" group, consisting of powerful insider Democrats from Cicero, Berwyn, Melrose Park and the 36th Ward, plus their Republican allies, including a mayor, a county commissioner, three state representatives and a Chicago alderman.

Those in the "total outsider" contingent, headed by Commissioner Tony Peraica (R-16), who lost to Stroger in 2006, detest both, and the "anti-anti-Stroger" and "anti-Stroger" factions revile Peraica and would dearly love to defeat him.

The "anti-everybody" faction is exemplified by the candidacy of Cary Capparelli, the son of former state representative Ralph Capparelli, who was purged by the "anti-Stroger" insider Democrats in 2004. He is taking on 16-year incumbent Pete Silvestri, their Republican ally.

     Say what? This is more convoluted than Albert Einstein's theory of relativity. However, since this column has a reputation for genius-like insight and intuition, here's the scoop:

     * The Anti-Strogers. They ain't no reformers. Cicero Mayor Larry Dominick, who was elected by 154 votes in 2005 and reelected in 2009 in a town that is 80 percent Hispanic, bounced Vrdolyak as the town attorney, costing the former alderman $1 million a year in fees. Vrdolyak was tight with Betty Loren-Maltese, the former mayor who did a stretch in federal prison.

In Melrose Park, Mayor Ron Serpico, who ran against Peraica for commissioner in 2002, has been buffeted by the convictions of his police chief and deputy police chief, and the feds are still investigating. The key thread in this alliance is Mike Delgaldo, the attorney for Cicero, Berwyn, Melrose Park and Justice. Delgaldo fancies himself as the new Vrdolyak.

According to Mike Manzo, an aide to Peraica, the tentacles of the "Cicero-Melrose Park Machine" reach north into Chicago's 36th Ward, dominated by former alderman Bill Banks and state Senator Jim DeLeo (D-10).

Silvestri, the mayor of Elmwood Park, stays in office as commissioner due to a hefty vote in the heavily Democratic 36th Ward. His Republican allies include state Representatives Mike McAuliffe (R-20), Skip Saviano (R-77) and Jim Durkin (R-82), Rosemont Mayor Brad Stephens and Alderman Brian Doherty (41st), who is running for DeLeo's open Senate seat. The "Banks-DeLeo Machine" has made no effort to defeat these Republicans.

* The "anti-anti-Strogers," or the enemies of the "Melrose Machine," revolve around Gorman, whose husband was a business partner of Vrdolyak. They can't reclaim their prior glory until the 2013 elections, when they certainly will field opponents to Dominick and Serpico.

Gorman's 17th District extends from upscale Orland Park and Tinley Park in the south to Park Ridge, Des Plaines and Wheeling in the north, connected by a narrow strip along Wolf Road. In the 2010 primary, Peraica-backed Mark Thompson, of Maine Township, held Gorman to just 56.2 percent of the vote. Unlike Peraica, Gorman is largely unknown. In 2006 she was reelected by 49,425-39,473, getting 55.6 percent of the vote.

Luckily for Gorman, of Orland Park, her district is heavily Republican. She faces Democrat Pat Maher, also a south suburbanite. Against a northern Democrat, Gorman could have had problems.

* The "total outsider" faction subsists on Peraica's kinetic energy and in-your-face demeanor. Dismissed as a grandstander and a gadfly by critics, Peraica performs a necessary function on the board: With much fanfare, he opposes every spending and tax hike, making it impossible for other non-minority commissioners to cut any deal.

Peraica got 47.5 percent of the vote in his 2006 countywide race, and he has been a vociferous critic of both the "Gorman/Vrdolyak Gang" and the "Melrose Machine." In the 2006 contest for 16th District commissioner, both ganged up against Peraica, and he survived by just 1,669 votes, getting 51.2 percent of the votes cast. This fall Peraica faces Jeff Tobolski, the mayor of McCook (population 254), who has the backing of everybody who hates Peraica. Tobolski succeeded his late father as mayor in 2007, and, according to Manzo, he "has 12 family members on the payroll. He's another Todd Stroger-style Democrat." Peraica, without the distraction of a countywide race, will win.

The Democrats have a 12-5 majority on the county board. Five are black, five are white, and two are Hispanic. Democrats Forrest Claypool and Bridget Gainer join the Republicans on anti-tax votes, but Stroger has had enough support from minority commissioners to sustain his vetoes.

* The "anti-everybody" candidate is Capparelli, who is anti-Stroger, anti-"Melrose Machine" and anti-36th Ward. "I will fight every step of creeping liberalism in government," Capparelli said. "I will vote to cut waste in every county social welfare program."

There is a common denominator: Everybody hates Todd. As detailed in the adjoining vote chart, the area's county commissioners -- Silvestri, Peraica, Gorman, Claypool, Gainer (and her predecessor, Mike Quigley) and Gregg Goslin -- voted against the sales tax hike and to override Stroger's vetoes of the repeal. The one exception was Larry Suffredin, of the north suburban 12th District.

Here's an analysis of the contest in the 9th County Board District, which covers the Northwest Side and adjacent suburbs:

 The low-key Silvestri, who was first elected in 1994, acknowledges that it's difficult to entrench oneself in his part-time job, which pays $85,000. While aldermen and congressmen can perform a myriad of constituent services, a county commissioner is limited to assisting with property tax appeals, flood rebates and forest preserve picnic permits. Each commissioner has four staffers.

So an incumbent has two options: (1) Be boisterous and bellicose like Peraica, and become well known -- and well hated. Or (2) work within the system, attempting to discourage opposition. "I'm nonpartisan," said Silvestri, whose voting record is identical to Peraica's but who has adopted the latter course. "I work with all groups." Luckily for Silvestri, the 36th Ward Democrats don't work against him.

Silvestri was elected in 1994 by 47,889-40,733, getting 54 percent of the vote over incumbent Democrat Marco Domico, the 36th Ward's candidate, when single-member districts were first created. He was reelected by 47,022-37,123 (with 55.8 percent of the vote) in 1998, by 49,852-42,795 (with 53.8 percent) in 2002 and by 47,881-36,701 (with 56.6 percent) in 2006.

Clearly, Silvestri has about a 47,000-vote ceiling, with the Democrats averaging 39,338 votes in opposition. That ceiling is maintained by covert "Banks/DeLeo Machine" backing in the 36th Ward and by solid support from the Doherty/McAuliffe operation in the 41st Ward.

Silvestri got 6,112 votes (49.1 percent of the total) in the 36th Ward in 2006, while Republican governor candidate Judy Baar Topinka got 4,080 votes. In the 2004 election, when the elder Capparelli was running against McAuliffe, the Republican got 7,203 votes (56.1 percent of the total) in the ward, while George Bush got 36.0 percent. In the 41st Ward, Silvestri got 11,169 votes (59.8 percent) in 2006, compared to Topinka's 8,657.

So how does Cary Capparelli win? "I'm stressing issues," he said, denying that the race is a "grudge match" to atone for 2004, as Silvestri alleged. He promised to serve only two terms, charged that Silvestri "is part of the failed, dysfunctional county government," and pledged to oppose any tax increases.

The bulk of the county's $3 billion budget goes to Stroger Hospital (and 16 clinics), the county jail and the court system. Most residents of the 9th District have no need for those "services." Said Silvestri: "There will be a $250 million revenue shortfall in 2011. We must cut spending. We must collect unpaid bills. We do not need any tax increases."

My prediction: The Capparelli name is still viable, but this looms as a horrendous year for Democrats. To win, Capparelli needs to break even in the 41st Ward and get 60 percent of the vote in the 36th Ward. In all likelihood, Silvestri will break even in the 36th Ward, get 60 percent in the 41st Ward -- and gain a fifth term.