It's
a prospective "Battle of Titans." It's
the past versus the future. It's the 19th Ward
Irish versus Chicago Hispanics. It's Hynes versus
Madigan.
And
it's Round Three in the blood feud between Cook
County Assessor Jim Houlihan and Cook County Board
of Review Commissioner Joe Berrios.
According
to party sources, Berrios, who also is the county
Democratic chairman and the 31st Ward Democratic
committeeman, and who arguably is the most
powerful Hispanic in Chicago politics, is
seriously contemplating a primary challenge to
Houlihan in 2010.
Houlihan
is a protege of Tom Hynes, the former assessor and
19th Ward boss. Berrios is a close ally of
Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, the state
Democratic chairman and 13th Ward committeeman.
Both Hynes and Madigan are working assiduously to
elevate their offspring -- state Comptroller Dan
Hynes and state Attorney General Lisa Madigan --
to higher office in 2010
The
Board of Review, formerly known as the Board of
Tax Appeals, is empowered to consider complaints
from commercial and residential property owners
contesting assessed valuations, which are set by
the assessor's office. Three commissioners are
elected, each from a district encompassing a third
of Cook County: Berrios from the Northwest Side
2nd District, Larry Rogers from the black-majority
South Side 3rd District, and Brendan Houlihan from
the suburban 1st District. All are Democrats.
Round
One, in 2006, went to the assessor, who stealthily
backed Democrat Brendan Houlihan (no relation)
against Republican incumbent Maureen Murphy, who
was Berrios' ally on the board. With Murphy's
vote, Berrios was chairman, controlled hiring, and
set the agenda. In an upset, Murphy lost by 14,076
votes, getting 48.6 percent of the votes cast in a
turnout of 476,378. Brendan Houlihan then promptly
allied himself with Rogers, ousting Berrios as
chairman and demoting his staff.
Round
Two, in 2008, went to Berrios, who was challenged
in the primary election by Jay Paul Deratany, a
liberal Lakefront lawyer who blasted county
corruption, tied Berrios to Todd Stroger, and
tried to piggyback on the Barack Obama wave.
Berrios, with huge margins in the Hispanic wards,
triumphed by 153,053-107,889, with 58.6 percent of
the vote. The assessor donated $305,000 to
Deratany's campaign, which spent $861,938. To
defend his job, Berrios spent $226,312.
Round
Three is the 2010 primary. According to recent
financial disclosures, Houlihan has $545,168 in
his campaign fund, and Berrios has $735,233 in
four accounts. Since Berrios was reelected to a
4-year term in 2008, he now is in a win-win-win
situation: He has the money, he doesn't have to
give up his board post, and he will burst onto the
citywide scene, emerging as the "Great
Hispanic Hope." Plus, with Madigan's backing,
Berrios will get a share of the Southwest Side
white vote.
If
Berrios loses, he will be well positioned for a
future city or county race, having eclipsed his
Hispanic rivals, U.S. Representative Luis
Gutierrez and City Clerk Miguel del Valle, in
visibility; if he wins, he'll be able to raise $1
million-plus, and he could be elected mayor.
There
is a possibility that Houlihan could opt to run
for Cook County Board president, which would clear
a path for Berrios. But that seems unlikely, now
that county Commissioner Forrest Claypool and
Clerk of Circuit Court Dorothy Brown have emerged
as the principal contenders for Todd Stroger's
job. Should Houlihan enter the fray, he would
fracture the white vote and ensure Brown's
nomination.
Only
in a four-way race -- Claypool-Houlihan-Brown-Stroger
-- would the assessor have a chance. If voters
want "change" in 2010, they will elect
an outsider such as Claypool or Brown, not an
obscure insider like Houlihan.
The
assessor's task is to assign a market value to the
county's 1.8 million real estate parcels,
calculate the assessed valuation, factor in
spending by local government units, and then issue
bi-annual tax bills. The office reassesses 600,000
parcels each year, based on appraisals and sales.
But the critical function -- which is why the
assessor is known as the Democratic Machine's
"breadbasket" -- is to internally handle
appeals after notices of proposed assessed
valuations are mailed in early January.
Then,
commercial and industrial property owners engage
their clout-heavy lawyers, submit a contrary
appraisal, and get their assessed valuation
slashed, saving thousands of dollars. And,
thereafter, they and their attorneys make the
appropriate campaign contribution.
Since
the assessor's office was created in 1932, only
six men have held the job, the most enduring being
John Clark (1934 to 1954), P.J. Cullerton (1958 to
1974) and Hynes (1978 to 1997). In 1974, enmeshed
in scandal, Cullerton, from the Northwest Side
38th Ward, successfully passed the office on to
his protege, Tom Tully, who withstood a vigorous
challenge from Ed Vrdolyak. But Tully retired
after just one term, and Hynes, then the Illinois
Senate president, with unified South Side support,
mustered enough votes to edge Northwest Sider Ted
Lechowicz at slatemaking.
"There's
no way the 19th Ward will ever give up that
job," said one Democratic politician, who
noted that Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart comes from
that ward, as did Mike Sheahan, who was the
sheriff from 1990 to 2006. "It's all about
Danny," added the politician, referring to
Dan Hynes. Controlling the assessor's job, he
said, enables Hynes' ward organization to raise
money, and the sheriff's job enables them to field
precinct workers. They'll hang on to those posts
"until Danny is governor or senator," he
said.
Tom
Hynes, it should be remembered, was one of the few
Chicago committeemen to back Rich Daley for mayor
in 1983. They served in the state Senate together,
and they are long-time allies. The mayor surely
will intervene to save Houlihan, as he did in
1998, when he pressured Alderman Bill Banks not to
mount a primary challenge.
But
some Democratic insiders think that Madigan is
simply using a Berrios candidacy as a bargaining
chip to ensure Tom Hynes' support of Lisa Madigan
for governor. In other words, Houlihan gets a free
pass, Tom backs Lisa, and Mike supports Dan for
attorney general. But the opposite may be true:
Berrios could energize Hispanic voters, spur a
huge turnout, run in tandem with Lisa Madigan on a
"change" platform, and make Hynes focus
his money and workers on salvaging Houlihan and
Dan Hynes, ignoring the governor's race.
Houlihan,
age 66, who was born in the 19th Ward, has had a
curious odyssey in Chicago politics since the
1970s: He was an independent-minded Lakefront
state representative, but he lost his seat in the
1978 primary. He was an aide to Mayor Harold
Washington, and he then returned to his Far
Southwest Side roots and became the deputy
assessor in Tom Hynes' office. When Hynes resigned
in March of 1997, the county board chose Houlihan
as his replacement.
Houlihan's
advocacy of property tax caps, which limit
residential assessment increases to 7 percent a
year for 3 years, reached fruition in 2004, when a
cap was passed by the General Assembly. It ranks
as his major accomplishment. But the cap is being
phased out, and Houlihan is searching for
alternatives to future increases, such as raiding
"excess" tax increment financing
district funds or using a portion of the 1 percent
sales tax hike to establish a "tax relief
fund" to subsidize distressed owners.
But
real estate has decreased in value, not increased,
since 2006, and voters, already besieged by
increases in the county sales tax and possibly the
state income tax, are not going to tolerate paying
higher property taxes when their home's value is
plummeting. Only one-third of the county is
reassessed annually, which means that home owners
will be taxed on 2007 and 2008 values through 2010
and 2011, and, since home sales have diminished to
a trickle, there is scant evidence to support a
reduced assessed value.
Last
month Houlihan promised that he would lower
suburban property tax assessments by 4 to 15
percent effective in 2010.
The
second installment of the 2008 property tax bills
will be mailed in September and due in October.
Expect substantial increases. Anticipate a
palpable uproar. Envision a plethora of
finger-pointing and scapegoating, as politicians
try to pin the blame elsewhere. And, unless
Houlihan has a plan or program in place to reduce
property taxes commensurate with reduced property
values, he will be a tempting scapegoat.
But
much depends on how Berrios, age 57, packages
himself. The Board of Review has the power to
arbitrarily cut assessed commercial valuations,
based on such criteria as vacancies, business
losses or obsolescence. Berrios raises his money
from the businesses and their lawyers who appear
before him. It's not pay to play; it's play first
and then pay -- just like Houlihan.
To
term Berrios a reformer is like calling George
Bush lovable. If Berrios wins, it just means the
19th Ward boss is out and the Hispanic boss is in.
Berrios does not want to change how the assessor's
office works; he just wants to make it work for
him.
Voters
are, gullible, however. Here's my prediction: The
next assessor will be the guy who spends $2
million to $3 million on media ads, sternly
promising to reduce property taxes.