This week in place of the usual behemoth 1,500-word analysis are four mini-columns about developments affecting local and county politics.

Column Number One: From Powerhouse to Powerless to Oblivion.

Recorder of Deeds: Gene Moore was chosen in 1998 by the Cook County Board to replace Jesse White, who had been elected secretary of state. Moore, like White, is black. Moore was then a state representative, the Proviso Township Democratic Committeeman and a close political ally of county board President John Stroger, who engineered his selection.

Moore's major selling point was that his west suburban township, containing Maywood, Bellwood, Forest Park, Brookfield, Westchester, Hillside and a dozen other towns, had an exploding black population and that he could deliver mammoth pluralities for Democratic candidates. In 1996 Bill Clinton got 33,669 votes and in 2004 John Kerry got 44,374 in that township.

The recorder's office controls only 275 jobs, and it has a budget of $13 million. In the pantheon of county offices, it has the least clout. But both Carol Moseley Braun (1988 to 1992) and White (1992 to 1998) used the post to increase their visibility and broaden their party contacts, moving on to statewide office. Moore has done the opposite. He's been inert and invisible, and his Proviso power base has totally collapsed.

The word in political circles is that Moore will be dumped in favor of West Side Alderman Ed Smith (28th). If not, he will face a challenge in the 2008 Democratic primary for recorder from his longtime nemesis, state Representative Karen Yarbrough (D-7) of Maywood. Smith, age 62, has been an alderman since 1983, and he is looking for a comfortable retirement sinecure, divesting himself of the 24/7 hassles of his ward job. Former 7th Ward alderman Bill Beavers did that in 2006, taking John Stroger's county board seat.

Back in 1998 Moore ousted the white Democratic committeeman, Gary Marinaro, by 6,883-3,925, getting 63.6 percent of the vote. Up until the 1990s Proviso Township was overwhelmingly white and largely Italian-American; now it's 70 percent black. In 2002 Yarbrough challenged Moore for committeeman, and Moore won 9,073-7,911, getting 53.1 percent of the vote. Despite this obvious wake-up call, Moore's grip on his base continued to loosen. In 2005 Yarbrough's husband, Henderson, was elected Maywood's mayor over Moore's opposition. In the 2006 committeeman's rematch, Karen Yarbrough beat Moore by 9,746-7,045, with 58 percent of the vote. Turnout went from 10,808 in 1998 to 16,984 in 2002 to 16,791 in 2006. Compared to 2002, Moore's vote dropped by 2,028 and Yarbrough's increased by 1,835.

There is an unwritten "Code of Clout" among county Democratic committeemen, namely, if you can't control your ward or township, then you don't deserve to play with the big boys and get slated for (or keep) a county or city office. Unlike Moore, Smith is a committeeman, and an undisputed big boy. Moore's argument for re-slating is that suburban blacks deserve a county office, but that would be accomplished by Yarbrough's slating, as she is a committeeman.

However, some white committeemen are loathe to slate two black women -- Yarbrough for recorder and incumbent Dorothy Brown for clerk of the Circuit Court -- and fear that a black man, Alderman Howard Brookins (21st), could win the Democratic nomination for state's attorney in the event that incumbent Dick Devine retires. That would mean an all-black county ticket.

The Feb. 5 primary, featuring Barack Obama for president and an increased turnout by blacks and liberals, will aid "independents" such as Brookins and Yarbrough.

My prediction: Moore is a "Dead Man Walking." He has no powerful mentor and no political base. Getting sometime Daley critic Smith out of the City Council is a Daley priority, as is keeping Yarbrough out of the recorder's office, from which she could run for county board president in 2010 or later. Expect Smith to be slated, and expect a close and nasty Smith-Yarbrough primary, which Smith will win.

Column Number Two: Sins of the Son Attach to the Father.

Metropolitan Water Reclamation District: Proverbially, the sins of the father attach to the son. In the case of water district Commissioner M. Frank Avila, the sins of the son, Frank Avila, are attaching to him.

The younger Avila is an attorney and a political activist, a vehement critic of the Hispanic Democratic Organization -- having called it a "criminal enterprise" -- and of Mayor Rich Daley, and an astute political strategist. After unsuccessful attempts in 1998 and 2000, Avila managed to get his father elected as one of nine water district commissioners in 2002. His tactic: Filing a lawsuit against a slated candidate, Marty Sandoval, arguing that he couldn't run for both state senator and commissioner at the same time. Sandoval withdrew from the water district race, and M. Frank Avila finished third, behind the two remaining slated candidates, for three seats.

In 2008 it will be payback time. According to Democratic sources, a rules change has been submitted which allows the party to slate just two commissioners, with individual committeemen to decide who to back for the third slot. Thus, incumbent commissioners Kathy Meany and Cynthia Santos will be re-slated and incumbent Avila won't.

This unprecedented "open endorsement" is clearly a slap at Frank Avila, who endorsed Jesse Jackson Jr. for mayor, represented fired city employee Frank Coconate in his Civil Service Commission hearing, and is the attorney for one of the plaintiffs in the Jon Burge federal civil rights suit, seeking damages for alleged police torture against Daley and the city. To put it mildly, Avila is roundly reviled by the Democratic power structure. When he ran for water district commissioner in 2006, hoping to join his father, enormous effort was exerted by pro-Daley committeemen to ensure his defeat. He finished fourth in a field of nine, 38,745 votes behind the third-place winner.

Democratic slatemakers will meet the first week in September, and the filing deadline is Nov. 7. In the past 12 water district primaries, where three candidates are nominated for 6-year terms on the nine-member board, a nonslated candidate has won 12 times and five incumbents have lost, including the president in 1992 and 1996. Because of the obscurity of the job, incumbents establish minimal name recognition, and ballot position, gender and media endorsements outweigh the support of committeemen.

The rule of thumb in water district primaries is that the more candidates the better the prospects of the three slated Democrats. Given the early filing deadline, the 2008 field will be small. There will be several black candidates, and probably a North Shore liberal. But count on this: A lot of pro-Daley or pro-HDO committeemen will do their utmost to beat the elder Avila.

Column Number Three: If you can't win with $700,000, get out of the business.

32nd Ward (Bucktown, Wicker Park, Ukrainian Village, south Lakeview): Longtime Alderman Terry Gabinski (1969 to 1999) succeeded Dan Rostenkowski as the ward's Democratic committeeman and anointed Ted Matlak as his aldermanic successor in 1999. In this spring's election Gabinski called in his many markers, spent more than $700,000, had workers from all over the city flood his ward -- and still lost Matlak's seat. The final vote gave independent Scott Waguespack a 121-vote win over Matlak.

Without an alderman in his pocket, Gabinski's fund-raising capability vanishes. Plus, without a viable precinct operation, Gabinski is up the proverbial creek without a paddle. The ward has changed demographically, from working-class ethnic Poles and Ukrainians to upscale liberals and independents. New residents expect city services as a matter of right, not as a political favor.

Waguespack won't run for committeeman in 2008, but state Representative John Fritchey (D-11) will. First elected in 1996, Fritchey has developed a reputation as a thoughtful, liberal legislator, and he sponsored a bill to ban political contributions from any company that receives a state contract. The outlook: Fritchey's appeal, and his alliance with Waguespack, makes him an easy winner. Gabinski would be a fool to run.

Column Number Four: Voluntary "Decapitation" in Maine Township.

Maine Township: Republican factionalism in the northwest suburban township, encompassing Park Ridge, Des Plaines and Mount Prospect, rivals that of the Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites. That is about to change.

Township Supervisor Bob Dudycz has announced his resignation, effective in October. Dudycz worked for the state for 21 years, and he has been the supervisor since 2001. An early retirement under the Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund considers the highest paid 12 months over the employee's last 4 years. Dudycz makes $32,000 from the township, and he made $75,000 from the state. By staying as the township supervisor, he would forfeit half his pension. He will be succeeded by Trustee Carol Teschky.

Dudycz's conservative faction has been feuding with Republican Committeeman Mark Thompson's "moderates" for a decade, with Dudycz having beaten Thompson twice for supervisor and Thompson having beaten Dudycz's candidate twice for committeeman.

The outlook: Unlike both Dudycz and Thompson, Teschky is not a polarizing, ideological figure. With Dudycz's self-decapitation, peace may have broken out.