Throughout almost all of Chicago, and in many of the Cook County suburbs, the political blight of Republicanism has been thoroughly eradicated.

            But on Chicago’s Northwest Side, there’s still four of those pesky Republican critters that have avoided extermination: State Senator Wally Dudycz (R-7), State Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-14), Cook County Commissioner Pete Silvestri (R-9), and Alderman Brian Doherty (41st). But that may soon change.

            With the exception of Dudycz, who is retiring after 18 years, and who is so despised by Springfield Democrats that they drew him a new legislative district in which he could not possibly be re-elected, the other three Republicans have good working relationships with local Democrats and with City Hall. They don’t try to defeat other Democrats, and they don’t meddle in Democratic affairs.

            But they are still a huge source of irritation, as they’re occupying public offices that could otherwise be occupied by a local Democrat. It’s the proverbial chairs-at-the-table syndrome: Northwest Side Democrats want those four chairs, and are embarrassed that they haven’t been able to claim them.

            Both Silvestri and McAuliffe are prime Democratic targets in 2002, and Doherty will be in 2003. “I’m a Democrat,” said Rob Martwick, Silvestri’s opponent. “And the 9th (District) is a Democratic district. Pete (Silvestri) may be a very likeable guy, but that’s no reason to give a free pass to a Republican for a seat that should be held by a Democrat.”

            Martwick, age 36, is the son of Norwood Park Township Democratic Commiteeman Robert Martwick, and he ran a close but losing race against Dudycz for state senator in 1996. He is a Norridge trustee, and former Norwood Park Township trustee. He expects to get the support of all the local Democratic heavyweights, including State Representative Ralph Capparelli (D-13), 36th Ward Alderman (and Committeeman) Bill Banks, and 45th Ward Committeeman Tom Lyons.

            Silvestri, age 44, has been commissioner since 1994, and is also Elmwood Park’s mayor, a post he has held since 1989. In 1994, he upset incumbent Commissioner Marco Domico, who came out of Banks’ 36th Ward, beating him by a 54-46 percent margin; Silvestri had 47,889 votes to Domico’s 40,733. In 1998, Silvestri got a free pass:  Joan Sullivan, an independent liberal from Oak Park, was ignored by the Capparelli-Banks-Martwick combine, who did not push her candidacy, and she lost to Silvestri  by 47,022-37,123, again a 54-46 margin.

            That outcome definitely sent a warning signal to Silvestri:  He was a four-year incumbent, running against a Democrat not backed by the local Democratic establishment, yet neither his vote total nor winning percentage increased. And the 2001 redrawing of the county board districts further endangered Silvestri:  He lost parts of Oak Park and Melrose Park, but he picked up new, Democratic-leaning precincts in Glenview, Niles, Morton Grove, and in Chicago’s 45th Ward.

            The new 9th District has a population of roughly 317,000, and takes in all of the 41st and 36th wards, parts of the 38th and 45th wards, plus all of Martwick’s Norwood Park Township (Norridge and Harwood Heights), plus all of Park Ridge, Elmwood Park, Rosemont, River Grove and River Forest, and parts of Glenview, Morton Grove, Niles, Des Plaines, Schiller Park, Franklin Park, Melrose Park and Oak Park. Of the district’s 320 precincts, 170 are in the suburbs, and 150 are in Chicago.

            Martwick recently did a precinct analysis of the district, and is convinced that it is a “Democratic district,” and that he “will win.”  There are 167,919 registered voters. Ranking voters as either “hard” Democrats or “hard” Republicans, meaning that they voted in that party’s primary at least twice in the past four elections (1994, 1996, 1998 and 2000), Martwick claims that there are 49,133 “hard” Democrats (29 percent) and 18,009 “hard” Republicans (11 percent). There are 90,971 “independent” voters (54 percent), meaning those who never voted in a primary, and 9,806 “swing” voters (six percent), meaning those who voted in both party primaries.

            Based on those computations, Martwick is confident of victory. The previous Domico (40,733) and Sullivan (37,123) vote is the bedrock Democratic vote. If he gets 90 percent of the “hard” Democrats, and just 10,000 of the independents, Martwick’s in. By comparison, Silvestri needs all of the “hard” Republicans (18,009), plus another 27,000 “independent,” “swing,” or “hard” Democratic votes. Of the two tasks, Martwick’s is the easier.

            Of course, there will be the matter of money. In 1996, Dudycz spent over $1 million, and had 27 districtwide mailings funded by the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, many of which were negative assaults on Martwick; Martwick spent just over $400,000, had nine mailings, and lost by 2,318 votes (48.5 percent). According to Martwick, Silvestri will be no Dudycz. “He (Silvestri) will spend about $400,000, and have 8-9 mailings,” said Martwick, “but we’ll have 5 or 6, and we’ll have more precinct workers, so it will be a level playing field.”

            On issues, Martwick intends to attack the “mess in county government” and to blast Silvestri as being “an ineffective commissioner,” blaming the “current makeup of the County Board” for that mess. That is an interesting, if not audacious approach, inasmuch as the Democrats run county government. John Stroger, the county board’s president, is a close ally of Chicago Mayor Rich Daley, and the board’s finance committee chairman, John Daley, is the mayor’s brother. It is common knowledge that John Daley really runs county government. The county’s budget has ballooned to $2.7 billion, and the egregious mismanagement of the county’s Forest Preserve District has occurred under the Stroger-Daley watch.

            But Martwick delicately dances around that issue, alleging that Silvestri – without casting any blame on Stroger or Daley – has “been unable to change” the so-called “mess,” that he has “not made a difference,” and that the current situation is “a disaster,” and that it is “time for someone else.” He said that Silvestri has “not been visible for eight years,” and has voted for seven forest preserve budgets.

            Of the 17 commissioners, only five are Republicans; that gives the Democrats a 12-5 majority, which could inflate to as high as 15-2 if Martwick wins, and a Democrat is victorious in the 16th (Cicero) and 15th (far northwest suburban) districts.

            Martwick pledges that, if elected, he will be a “fiscally conservative Democrat,” and that he will “join the revolution” on the new Board. In the March primary, former Mayor Daley aide Forrest Claypool beat incumbent Ted Lechowicz (D-12), and incumbents Bill Moran (D-6), Cal Sutker (D-13), Herb Schumann (R-17) and Al Carr (R-16) all lost their seats. At least five new commissioners will be elected, perhaps as many as six. But Stroger has the solid backing of the four other black commissioners, plus the two Hispanics, plus John Daley. That’s eight votes, and enough for a majority. So Martwick’s “revolution” may be just a figment of his imagination.

            Silvestri scoffs at Martwick’s assertions. “I’ve voted against every single Democratic-sponsored property tax levy hike, tax increase, or fee increase,” he said. ‘I’m in the minority, and I’ve done all that I can to thwart the tax-raising majority. I’ve supported forest preserve modernization and privatization. I’ve been visible and accessible, and believe that I’ve done a good job (as commissioner).”

            Silvestri is allied with both Doherty and McAuliffe, and expects that his precinct workers, concentrated in Elmwood Park and the west suburbs, will be supplemented by McAuliffe’s workers in the 41st Ward and close-in northwest suburbs. “It will be close,” admits Silvestri, “but I will win.”

            The bottom line: The new 9th District, with the 45th Ward precincts, is slightly more Democratic than the old. Banks is pushing hard for Rod Blagojevich for governor and for Bob Bugielski for re-election as state representative (against McAuliffe) – and presumably for Martwick. Martwick said that he expects to win the 36th Ward by at least 60-40, carry Norwood Park Township by 2-1, and carry the 45th Ward by 65-35; in the 41st Ward, John Malatesta is Bugielski’s organizer, and Martwick expects that the Blagojevich-Bugielski-Martwick slate will win the ward narrowly over the McAuliffe-Silvestri team.

            My prediction: Indeed, the 9th District contest is a barometer of party strength. Silvestri is well-known and well-liked, but the 9th District has a huge Democratic-voting base. If young Martwick does not win, it will be an embarrassment for Banks, Capparelli and the elder Martwick – and they don’t want to be embarrassed. Dudycz won in 1996 by going negative on Martwick, and by spending $1 million. Unless Silvestri does likewise in 2002, by going negative and spending a bundle, Martwick will win.