Legendary showman P.T. Barnum once estimated that there was a sucker born every minute. By sucker, Barnum meant somebody who could be happily and willingly fleeced out of his money by a shrewd operator.

At this early date, although the 2004 campaign for retiring Illinois U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald's seat is still in an embryonic stage, four words sum up the contest: "Let The Fleecing Begin."

For the major electronic media, especially the Chicago-area television stations but also radio, cable TV and the Internet, as well as for a slew of high-priced media and campaign consultants and even for direct-mail specialists, the parade of rich suckers seeking their respective parties' Senate nomination in 2004 will be a financial bonanza beyond belief. Statewide candidates in 2002 spent more than $30 million in aggregate, with about $25 million going to the electronic and print media. With 18 or more candidates expected to seek Fitzgerald's seat, 2004 will set a new record, with more than $25 million spent for the March primary and another $15 million spent for the November election.

That total expenditure translates into a saturation level of gross rating points, which means that the average listener or viewer will hear or see not fewer than three ads per day for some U.S. Senate candidate during the January-March and September-October periods.

Nine Democrats have already announced for or are expected to run for senator, including two "rich white guys," former Chicago investment banker Blair Hull, who has pledged to spend $40 million of his $530 million fortune (gained when he sold his brokerage firm to Goldman Sachs in 1999) on his campaign, and Downstate attorney John Simmons, who has promised to spend at least $15 million, or "as much as it takes," to win. Also in the race are former Chicago schools chief Board of Education president Gery Chico, who raised $1,225,000 through March 31, and state Comptroller Dan Hynes, who raised $801,000 through that date.

Back in the money-raising pack are African-American state Senator Barack Obama, with $356,000, and Joyce Washington, a black health consultant, with $170,000. No report was filed by Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas, who has not yet announced or begun raising money, or Metamora Mayor Matt O'Shea. Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn also is expected to enter the race.

Hull, who barely registers in any polls, has already hired staff, including a $20,000-a-month campaign manager whose claim to fame is that he ran Mark Shriver's losing congressional campaign in Maryland. Hull also reportedly has 18 staffers and 10 consultants and pollsters, and he rents a $5,500-a-month campaign headquarters on trendy North Michigan Avenue. If there were a hundred more candidates like Hull, graduate schools would begin giving MBAs in campaign management.

The Republican field is a bit more diverse, and much more obscure. Since former governor Jim Edgar opted not to run, Republicans have been decidedly pessimistic about their prospects of retaining Fitzgerald's seat. Among the announced or potential candidates are a half-dozen "rich white guys," but there also is a "rich white woman," a "rich Indian guy" and a whole bunch of "not rich white guys."

The good news for the Republicans is that if the Democrats nominate Obama, the right "rich white guy" or "rich white woman" could win. The bad news is that, in a primary with a multiplicity of candidates, a social conservative who opposes abortion, gun control and gay rights could win, and such a candidate would be unable to beat even an underfunded black opponent like Obama. If a white candidate wins the Democratic primary, the likelihood of a Republican victory in the election would be nonexistent.

Here's a breakdown of the Republican field, with the richest first:

Other potential candidates -- all of whom are "not rich white guys" -- include RTA chairman Tom McCracken, retired U.S. Air Force major general John Borling of Rockford, DuPage County Board chairman Bob Schillerstrom, 2002 Senate candidate Jim Durkin (who got just 37 percent of the vote against Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin), former state senator and 2002 governor candidate Pat O'Malley (an outspoken social conservative who got 260,860 votes, finishing second with 28.4 percent), and Illinois Supreme Court Justice Bob Thomas, a former Chicago Bears place-kicker.

Each party's field is likely to top off at 10 -- an unprecedented glut of contenders by Illinois standards. The early outlook: Over the past 40 years, the  Republican "establishment" candidate has prevailed in primaries, as Jim Ryan proved in 2002, getting 44.7 percent of the vote, but there is a definite socially conservative vote (like O'Malley's 28.4 percent in 2002) and a definite moderate-female gender vote (like Wood's 26.9 percent that year).

The hard-core socially conservative candidates, McKenna, Cox, O'Malley and Rauschenberger, will split the Hard Right's 30 percent of the vote. Wood will be the only outspokenly pro-abortion rights candidate and the only woman, and she is worth at least 25 percent. The "establishment" eventually will coalesce behind Oberweis, Thomas, Ransburg or Ryan. Right now, make Oberweis the favorite, but Ransburg or Thomas could quickly eclipse him and take the nomination.