For
four aging, veteran Illinois congressmen, shadows
from the past and present hover darkly and,
perhaps, ominously over their futures.
In
the west suburban Cook/DuPage County 6th U.S.
House District and in the northwest suburban
Cook/Lake/McHenry County 8th U.S. House District,
represented, respectively, by Republicans Henry
Hyde and Phil Crane, the shadow of former House
speaker Newt Gingrich lingers. Gingrich caused the
enactment of several procedural reforms after the
Republicans won a House majority in 1994, one of
which was to mandate a 6-year term limit on the
occupancy of a committee chairmanship.
That
means Hyde, age 80, who as chairman of the House
Judiciary Committee from 1995 to 2000 orchestrated
Bill Clinton's 1999 impeachment trial, and
chairman of the International Relations Committee
since 2001, will be termed out of that post in
2007. Hyde could reclaim the Judiciary Committee
chairmanship that year, but expect him to retire
in 2006.
And
that also means that Crane, age 73, chairman of
the Trade Subcommittee of the tax-writing House
Ways and Means Committee, will try to win the
chairmanship of the full committee is 2007, after
current chairman Bill Thomas of California is
termed out. So Crane likely will run for
re-election in 2006.
In
both the Southwest Side Chicago and southwest
suburban 3rd District, represented by Democrat
Bill Lipinski, and in the far south and west
suburban (western DuPage, Kendall, Kane, DeKalb,
Lee, Whiteside and Henry counties) 14th District,
represented by Gingrich's successor, House Speaker
Denny Hastert, the shadow of Iraq and the fate of
President George Bush looms large.
If
Bush wins re-election in 2004, and if the
Republicans retain their House majority, then
Hastert, age 62, will retire in 2006, after 8
years as speaker. He likely will conclude that,
after 2 more years of a Bush Administration, the
Democrats will benefit from a historically normal
voter reaction against the in party and win
control of the U.S. House and Senate in 2006.
However,
if Bush loses, Democrat John Kerry becomes
president, and Hastert remains speaker, then 2006
likely will be a Republican year, with Hastert
keeping his majority and keeping his speakership
for several more terms.
As
for Lipinski, a former Chicago alderman (1975-83)
and the 23rd Ward Democratic committeeman since
1975, a continued House Republican majority
coupled with a Bush loss could prompt his exodus.
Lipinski, age 66, is the third-ranking Democrat on
the House Transportation and Infrastructure
Committee, which oversees and funds highway,
railroad and airport operations and construction.
Lipinski is the ranking Democrat on the Highways,
Transit and Pipelines Subcommittee. If Democrats
win a House majority in 2004 or in 2006 (presuming
Bush is re-elected), Lipinski will become a
subcommittee chairman and will be in a position to
exert a powerful influence on Chicago-related
projects.
However,
if Kerry wins but Republicans keep control of the
House, then Lipinski won't be a subcommittee
chairman, and he probably won't be after the 2006
elections. Rumors are rampant that Lipinski is
contemplating taking the prospective chief
executive officer job at the RTA.
Here's
a look at each congressional district:
6th
District: Of the 21 Republicans on the Judiciary
Committee who managed the Clinton impeachment,
only one was defeated in 2000, but a few others,
including Hyde, saw their winning margins
diminished. Hyde was first elected in 1974. In
1998 he was re-elected with 67.3 percent of the
vote, winning 111,603-49,906. In 2000 his share of
the vote dropped to just 58.9 percent, winning
133,327-92,880. In 2002 he bounced back to
normalcy, getting 65.1 percent of the vote and
winning 113,174-60,698.
Hyde's
odyssey to Washington is noteworthy. Back in 1962
he lived in Wildwood on the Northwest Side, and he
ran for Congress against Roman Pucinski. He lost,
but he came back to win an Illinois House seat in
1966, and he became the House majority leader in
1969. But Hyde was no fan of Governor Dick Ogilvie,
who backed Roger McAuliffe against him Hyde in the
1972 primary, and Hyde lost. Hyde then moved to an
Elmwood Park-based district after the incumbent
resigned his nomination, and ran and won in 1972.
But, thereafter, his power in Springfield was
minimal. In 1974 he moved to Park Ridge and beat
Ed Hanrahan for an open congressional seat. He has
since moved to Wood Dale, in DuPage County.
When
Hyde was first elected, the 6th District comprised
only Cook County's western suburbs, running from
Cicero on the south to Park Ridge on the north.
Remaps after the 1980, 1990 and 2000 censuses
pushed Hyde westward, so that the current 6th
takes in more than half of DuPage County, and only
a small portion of Cook County (Des Plaines, Elk
Grove and Streamwood). The DuPage area extends
from Bensenville and Wood Dale in the northeast to
as far west as Wheaton.
A
long line is forming to succeed Hyde, among them
being DuPage County Board Chairman Bob
Schillerstrom, board member Brien Sheehan and
state Senators Dan Cronin, Steve Rauschenberger
and Peter Roskam. Rauschenberger made a credible
bid for the 2002 Republican U.S. Senate
nomination. This much is certain: A Republican
will replace Hyde.
8th
District: Crane is the most senior Republican in
the House, having been elected in a 1969 special
election to succeed Don Rumsfeld, who resigned to
become White House chief of staff. Crane's
geographic odyssey is much like Hyde's. When he
was first elected, his district took in the North
Shore. Then it was remapped westward, and now it
encompasses the west half of Lake County, the east
half of McHenry County and the Cook County suburbs
of Schaumburg, Palatine, Barrington and Inverness.
Crane originally lived in Winnetka, then moved to
Mount Prospect, and now is in Wauconda.
At
one time, Crane was poised to become a
conservative superstar. He spoke around the nation
in the 1970s and wrote books, but his 1980
presidential campaign was a flop. He got on the
Ways and Means Committee early in his career, but
he was never perceived as attentive to arcane tax
issues. In 2000 Thomas, junior in seniority to
Crane, got the support of more congressmen in a
caucus vote and became chairman. Crane may try
again in 2006.
Back
home, Crane's age and eroding campaign skills are
evident. His re-election shares have dropped from
68.6 percent in 1998 to 60.1 percent in 2000 to
57.4 percent in 2002. His 2002 Democratic foe,
Melissa Bean, is running again in 2004.
Republicans are concerned but not yet nervous
about Crane's prospects in a district won by
President George Bush with 56 percent of the vote
in 2000. Crane won the 2004 primary against an
under-funded and unknown opponent with 68.9
percent.
A
bunch of Republicans, including newly elected
Republican county chairman Gary Skoien, state
Representative Mark Beaubien and 1996 U.S. Senate
candidate Al Salvi, are eyeing the seat. But the
most formidable is Democrat Jack Franks, a McHenry
state representative. Local Republicans want Crane
to retire in 2006.
3rd
District: This was once one of three Chicago
"Polish" districts, and it was nestled
entirely on the Southwest Side until the 1980s. It
has had just three congressmen since 1950: John
Klucynski (who was chairman of the Transportation
Subcommittee when he died in 1975), John Fary and
Lipinski, who beat Fary in the 1982 primary. The
district is now almost 75 percent suburban,
containing just the 23rd and 13th wards and parts
of the 19th and 11th wards in Chicago; it takes in
all the southwest Cook County suburbs from Berwyn
to Bridgeview.
A
Republican held Lipinski to just 54.2 percent of
the vote in 1994, but since then Lipinski has won
re-election with better than 70 percent. Lipinski,
who votes very conservatively on social issues, is
running for re-election in 2004, but rumors abound
that he could resign in 2005. His choice to
succeed him would surely be his son, Dan Lipinski,
a political science professor at the University of
Tennessee; but that might not be politically
practical, so Lipinski, if he quit, could back his
alderman, Mike Zalewski (23rd), or his chief of
staff, Jerry Hurckes. But the Bridgeport-based
11th Ward Committeeman John Daley might have other
ideas. He might back his alderman, James Balcer.
So if Lipinski hangs it up, a major Chicago power
struggle will occur in this largely suburban
district.
14th
District: Hastert, a former Yorkville High School
wrestling coach, has a knack for being in the
right place at the right time. When the area
Republican congressman died in 1986, Hastert, then
a state representative, was named the nominee.
When Gingrich resigned as speaker in 1999, and
when his certain successor, Bob Livingston, was
accused of adultery, Hastert was everybody's
favorite compromise candidate. Hastert has been an
efficient and effective speaker, keeping his party
united and bringing back loads of "pork"
appropriations for Illinois projects.
After
being a powerful speaker, Hastert will surely not
want to be a powerless minority leader, so expect
him to retire as soon as he surmises that the
House Republican majority will become a minority.