As this column approaches the one-third century mark, I am occasionally asked to indulge in historical analysis and opinion. I'm often asked who, over the past 33 years, ran the best or worst campaigns? Or who were the most astute or inept politicians?

The answers to those questions would consume far more than the 1,500 words allotted to this column, and they can be addressed later. A more intriguing, relevant historical question would be this: Whose blundering, inept campaigns -- and I will refrain from attaching the word "dumb" -- had the most enduring impact on Northwest Side Chicago politics?

Here's an analysis of each key contest:

Blunder Number One: Go negative, Alderman Hoellen.

John Hoellen's fiercely independent, nonpartisan reputation was augmented by his quarrelsome and quirky nature. He was a fiscal conservative who constantly exposed and criticized the spending excesses of the Richard J. Daley Administration, and his bombastic rhetoric enlivened dull City Council meetings, often enraging Daley. Hoellen had been the alderman of the Ravenswood-area 47th Ward since 1947, and he had twice run for Congress as a Republican against incumbent Democrat Roman Pucinski in the Northwest Side 11th District.

In 1966, attacking Pucinski as a big-spending liberal, Hoellen lost by just over 3,000 votes, and in the 1968 rematch Pucinski flip-flopped, switching his position on school busing and open housing, and beat Hoellen by more than 10,000 votes. In 1971 Daley's forces, led by Committeeman Ed Kelly, almost ousted Hoellen as alderman.

In 1972 the ever-ambitious Pucinski got the notion that he could get elected to the U.S. Senate, opening the congressional seat that he had held since 1958. Hoellen quickly jumped into the race. But a surprise emerged at the Democrats' December 1971 slate-making meeting: U.S. Representative Frank Annunzio, who then represented the West Side 7th District and who had a residence in the Loop, was picked to run. Annunzio's seat had been merged into the black-majority 6th District, and he had two choices: move or retire.

Hoellen couldn't believe his good fortune: Annunzio didn't live in the district, had voted for school busing, had voted against denying food stamps to adults who refused to accept employment, was a onetime 1st Ward Democratic committeeman, and, in Ovid Demaris' book "Captive City," was alleged to have ties to organized crime. According to Demaris' book, a 1963 "secret federal report" stated that "Annunzio will follow the dictate of the Mob." At one time Annunzio had been a partner in an insurance company with 1st Ward Committeeman and Alderman John D'Arco and Buddy Jacobson, both of whom were reputed to have mob ties.

And, to compound his problems, Annunzio proceeded to send his congressional newsletter, franked at government expense, to all the residents of the 11th District, even though he then represented the 7th District. Hoellen's attorney zipped into federal court and got an injunction against further out-of-district franking.

Hoellen's initial slogan was "Voice of the Neighborhoods," since for 25 years he had honed an image as an independent who fought for neighborhood causes. But, quite inexplicably, Hoellen chose to pull his punches in 1972. Instead of pounding Annunzio as an undistinguished, liberal, pro-busing, pro-welfare, carpetbagging, Mob-tied, frank-abusing West Side congressman, Hoellen made a blunder of mammoth proportions. In 1966 and 1968 he ran anti-Pucinski campaigns and came close. In 1972 he decided to eschew negativity, refrain from attacking Annunzio, and run a "dignified" campaign. After the Democrats nominated George McGovern for president, Hoellen decided to tie his effort to President Richard Nixon's. His misguided theme: Support the president. Elect Hoellen.

But while Hoellen was tacking up posters of himself and Nixon on every available telephone pole, Annunzio was re-inventing himself. He switched his voting residence to his daughter's home in Sauganash. He proclaimed that he was now anti-busing, anti-public housing and pro-consumer. Instead of D'Arco, his political patron was now 39th Ward Committeeman and Alderman Tony Laurino. He ignored McGovern, and as the grand marshal of the Columbus Day parade, he marched down State Street arm-in-arm with first lady Pat Nixon.

Nixon won the 11th District in 1972 by 58,241 votes, but Hoellen lost by 14,854. Hoellen had re-invented himself as a Nixon lap dog, and voters recoiled, and he refrained from going negative on Annunzio, so voters accepted the new Annunzio.

One delicious irony: Before the election Hoellen, an attorney, had been promised a seat on the House Judiciary Committee. After the election he was furious with Nixon's refusal to personally campaign with him. Had Hoellen won, he would have been on the committee which impeached Nixon, and he would have been a definite pro-impeachment vote. With all the publicity he would have then received, he would have been tough to beat in 1974.

Back in the 11th District, it was presumed that Pucinski, who lost badly for U.S. senator, would try to reclaim his seat. Were Hoellen the incumbent, he certainly would have run, but ousting Annunzio would have been difficult, so Pucinski opted to run for the open 41st Ward aldermanic seat. The significance: Had Pucinski gotten back to Congress, he would have been in a better position to run for Chicago mayor in 1977, 1979 or 1983.

Blunder Number Two: Keep your word, Alderman McLaughlin.

For veteran 45th Ward Democratic Committeeman Tom Lyons, 1983 was the proverbial "do or die" election. Jane Byrne had been elected in mayor in 1979, and Lyons opposed her choice in the 1980 primary for state's attorney and opposed her in the 1983 mayoral primary. Byrne's political operative in the 45th Ward was John Donovan, the city Department of Streets and Sanitation commissioner. If Byrne won in 1983, Lyons would be toast in 1984, when Donovan was planning to challenge him for committeeman.

But then the fates were kind. Byrne was opposed in 1983 by Harold Washington and Rich Daley. The result was a Washington win, with 424,146 votes (37 percent of the total), to Byrne's 388,259 (33 percent) and Daley's 344,721 (30 percent). In the 45th Ward, it was 15,920 votes (52 percent) for Daley, to Byrne's 14,309 (47 percent) and Washington's 483. Lyons was the only Northwest Side committeeman to support -- and deliver for -- Daley.

That meant that Byrne was the ex-mayor and that Donovan was the ex-commissioner. There wouldn't be a Byrne Administration behind him in 1984. But the fates were unkind to Lyons in the 1983 aldermanic race. His ally, incumbent Alderman Dick Clewis, got only 12,963 votes (45.2 percent of the total) in February, and he faced an April runoff against Chicago police officer Gerry McLaughlin, who had 10,855 votes (37.9 percent). According to Donovan, early in the year he had made a deal with McLaughlin: He would send in workers to help McLaughlin beat Clewis, provided McLaughlin backed him for ward committeeman in 1984.

Donovan kept his bargain. In the runoff, McLaughlin topped Clewis 16,893-14,572. But then McLaughlin, being alderman and being part of the "Vrdolyak 29" in those heady days of "Council Wars," decided that he would also be committeeman. The fates were kind to Lyons in 1984. In a four-way race, Lyons got 10,609 votes (48 percent of the total), to McLaughlin's 7,152 (33 percent) and Donovan's 3,331 (15 percent), with 831 to Randy Ernst. The total McLaughlin-Donovan vote was 10,483, just 126 fewer than Lyons'.

The significance: Had McLaughlin backed Donovan, Lyons might have been beat, Lyons-backed Pat Levar would not have upset McLaughlin in 1987, and Lyons would not now be the county Democratic chairman with the strongest Democratic organization on the Northwest Side.

Blunder Number Three: Sign it, and dump the dynasty.

The Cullertons are an authentic Chicago dynasty. On the West Side, Eddie Cullerton was alderman for 48 years, and on the Northwest Side, nephew P.J. Cullerton was alderman from 1935 until 1958, when he was elected assessor. Then P.J.'s brother Willie served from 1958 to 1973, and then nephew Tom served from 1973 to 1993.

Beginning in the early 1980s, the 38th Ward experienced major demographic and accompanying political upheaval. Sizable numbers of Polish immigrants settled in the Belmont-Central area, replacing long-time Cullerton voters. In the 1983 election Cullerton barely beat Wally Dudycz, then an unknown city police detective. Cullerton got 14,064 votes (50.9 percent of the total), to Dudycz's 11,363 (41.2 percent), with 2,185 for Pete Hermes.

Dudycz then switched parties and was elected state senator in 1984.The Dudycz-backed candidate in 1987 was Marty Serwinski, a young businessman with energy, family money, Dudycz's manpower and the right ethnic surname. Change was in the air. Cullerton was aging and ailing, and he appeared sure to face a runoff. But then it was discovered that Serwinski's statement of candidacy was notarized but not signed by him, and he was removed from the ballot. In the ensuing contest, against four unknowns, Cullerton won with 52 percent of the vote.

In 1991 Serwinski ran again and forced Cullerton into a runoff. But the "Moment of Change" was gone, and a forewarned Cullerton won with 54.2 percent of the vote. He died in 1993, and he was succeeded by his daughter Patty Jo as committeeman and by Tom Allen, who is related to the Cullertons by marriage, as alderman. Political tranquility returned, and the "Cullerton Dynasty" is alive and well -- miraculously saved back in 1987 by the nonstroke of a pen.