Here's a "Bonus Foursome" -- four mini-columns on various and sundry political developments:

 

Clayborne For Number Two?

The Beginning Of The End For Daley?

Coconate's Back.

Park Ridge Chaos.

 

Clayborne For Number Two?

James Clayborne is an obscure but well respected 41-year-old black Democratic state senator from East Saint Louis. He has served in the Illinois Senate since 1995, he chairs the Environment and Energy Committee, and he works for the prestigious Hinshaw and Culbertson law firm. And he's emerged as a potential complication to Governor Rod Blagojevich's renomination in 2006.

Clayborne reportedly is pondering a bid for either state treasurer or lieutenant governor in next year's Democratic primary, and he's being viewed as a potential running mate for a possible Chicago candidate, either state Comptroller Dan Hynes or Cook County State's Attorney Dan Devine, who might have, as Blagojevich described it, the "testicular virility" to challenge the governor in the Democratic primary.

While the governor and lieutenant governor run as a team in the election, they are nominated separately in the primary. It is presumed that incumbent Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn will run for re-election in tandem with Blagojevich, of whom he has been vocally supportive. Quinn beat two foes in the 2002 primary, amassing 42.1 percent of the vote (471,038 votes), with black Chicagoan Joyce Washington getting 32.5 percent (362,902 votes) and Downstate college professor Mike Kelleher getting 25.5 percent (284,549 votes).

Three Chicagoans competed in the Democratic primary for governor: Blagojevich got 36.5 percent of the vote (457,197 votes), with Paul Vallas getting 34.5 percent (431,728 votes) and Roland Burris getting 29 percent (363,591). Burris is black, and his vote was almost identical to Washington's; their vote was concentrated in predominantly black Chicago and Cook County's wards and townships. Obviously, black voters understood that there was a "black ticket" and voted Burris-Washington.

Blagojevich prevailed in 2002 because he carried Downstate, getting 57.3 percent of the total vote and topping Vallas by 81,747 votes. His statewide margin over Vallas was only 25,469 votes. Blagojevich actually finished third in Chicago, with 28.6 percent of the vote, to 29.5 percent for Vallas and 41.9 percent for Burris.

In the black-majority 1st U.S. House District, congressional district, Burris beat Blagojevich 82,029-5,952 (with Vallas getting 13,200 votes), and Washington beat Quinn 69,450-18,115; in the black-majority 2nd U.S. House District, Burris beat Blagojevich 44,046-6,459 (with Vallas getting 9,459 votes), and Washington beat Quinn 38,838-13,114; and in the black-majority 7th U.S. House District, Burris beat Blagojevich 52,296-10,434 (with Vallas getting 17,810 votes), and Washington beat Quinn 43,510-17,474.

So the only feasible scenario for beating Blagojevich in a Democratic primary is to keep him under 50 percent of the Downstate vote and under 10 percent of the black vote. "That's just not going to happen," said one Northwest Side Democratic committeeman.

But hope springs eternal, and, according to Democratic insiders, a Hynes-Clayborne or Devine-Clayborne "slate," with the two endorsing each other and campaigning jointly against the Blagojevich-Quinn ticket, could have a chance. There is no credible black candidate known to be pondering a run for governor in 2006, and Blagojevich is not especially popular among black voters. But, against a white suburbanite such as McHenry County state Representative Jack Franks, black voters would certainly stick with the governor. Against Devine or Hynes, neither of whom has any special appeal in the black community, the black vote might split 50/50.

But with Clayborne in the mix for lieutenant governor, with black ward and township committeemen pushing for his nomination and for his gubernatorial running mate's, with Blagojevich committed to endorsing Quinn, and with an expected primary for Cook County Board president driving up black turnout, Blagojevich could have serious electoral problems.

Clayborne's state Senate seat is up in 2006, so a statewide bid is a roll-the-dice situation. If he runs statewide and loses, his career is over. He has been circulating throughout the state, and he recently appeared at the 39th Ward Democratic Organization's fund-raiser. Does he have the "testicular virility" to take the risk? He won't -- unless Devine or Hynes take a similar risk, run for governor, and embrace Clayborne as their number two.

 

The Beginning Of The End For Daley?

A recent Chicago Tribune poll which showed Chicago Mayor Rich Daley losing a head-to-head contest with black U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2), contains both good news and bad news for the mayor. The good news is that the mayoral election is in February 2007, fully 21 months away; and that Jackson only polled in the mid-40s, meaning that he's not close to a majority. If no candidate receives a majority in February, an April runoff between the two top finishers is held.

The bad news is that the incessant drumbeat of scandal within the Daley Administration is taking a toll. The mayor has not been implicated in any wrongdoing, but the patronage and fund-raising abuses are occurring on his watch. When Daley, a 17-year incumbent who was rated as one of America's best mayors by Time Magazine and who is personally well liked, gets barely 40 percent in a poll, then there's trouble brewing.

Jackson is young (age 40), articulate, ambitious and charismatic, but he carries his father's baggage. While he is more conciliatory and accommodating than his father, the Jackson name, by itself, tends to alienate both white and Hispanic voters. Jackson needs to establish himself as the "reform" candidate -- not the black -- for mayor and to take some conservative stances on a few issues, so as to distance himself from his father. But Daley's redemption lies in a simple decision: Are white Chicagoans ready to elect a black mayor named Jackson?

 

Coconate's Back.

Frank Coconate, president of the Northwest Side Democratic Organization, is convinced that the best is yet to come -- and that it will come in his 2006 race for County Board commissioner in the Northwest Side 9th District.

The incumbent is Republican Pete Silvestri, whom Coconate derides as a "water boy" for John Daley, the mayor's brother, who is chairman of the board's Finance Committee and who really runs county government. "I will be an independent commissioner, and I will not neglect the needs of the 41st, 45th and 36th wards, or of Norridge, Harwood Heights or Park Ridge, as does Silvestri," Coconate said. He charged that "the only town that receives anything" from the county budget is Elmwood Park, where Silvestri is mayor.

Coconate pledged to work to cut the county's management positions "by half," and he said he would propose an ordinance to charge a service fee to any individual or business entity whose residence or office is not in Cook County. "I will ensure that my whole district gets served," he said.

An employee of the city Department of Water Management, Coconate has been an outspoken opponent of the privatization of city services and of a casino license for Rosemont. Coconate lost three prior Democratic primary races for state representative, but he may have a clear shot for the 2006 Democratic nomination in the 9th District.

Silvestri, however, has proven himself a durable politician, capable of beating diverse opponents. He beat incumbent Chicago Democrat Marco Domico 47,889-40,733, with 54 percent of the vote, in 1994; he beat Joan Sullivan, a liberal from Oak Park, 47,022-37,123 (55.8 percent) in 1998; and he beat Rob Martwick, the son of the Norwood Park Township Democratic committeeman, 48,973-42,030 (53.8 percent) in 2002.

The key to Silvestri's success has been his alliance with Republican state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20) and 41st Ward Alderman Brian Doherty, who carried the 41st Ward for Silvestri by 2,507 votes in 2002. Another key has been his occasional alliance with Democratic state Senator Jim DeLeo (D-10) and 36th Ward Alderman Bill Banks, who helped him in 1998 but not in 1994 or 2002. Elmwood Park is adjacent to Banks' ward.

Banks carried his ward for Martwick by 3,222 votes in 2002, but Martwick won his Norwood Park Township base by just 454 votes, and he lost heavily in the other suburbs, giving Silvestri a comfortable victory.

Coconate will get no help from the Banks/DeLeo crowd in 2006 . . . or from the Daley crowd. The Democrats are in disarray in the 41st Ward, following McAuliffe's defeat of Ralph Capparelli in 2004. Coconate may win the Democratic nomination to run against Silvestri by default, but he's a definite underdog in the 2006 election.

 

Park Ridge Chaos.

Sore losers invariably let their anger cloud their judgment. In Park Ridge, there's a bunch of sore losers, including at least nine of the city's 14 aldermen.

On April 5 Park Ridge voters elected Republican Howard Frimark as mayor with a resounding 60 percent, of the vote, and on May 3, at the first City Council meeting after the election, the council's Democratic 9-4 majority (with one vacancy) moved to strip Frimark of his authority to appoint people to commissions and boards and tried to block him from appointing his successor as alderman.

Is this just dumb? Or dumber? Has Cicero-style politics creeped into Park Ridge? According to sources close to Frimark, he's ecstatic. By being obstreperous and obstructionist, the Democratic majority has given Frimark the political equivalent of absolution. If Frimark has a lack of accomplishments, he can blame the Democratic majority, and in 2007 he can run a slate of pro-Frimark candidates for aldermen in Park Ridge's seven wards, attacking the power-grabbing Democratic incumbents.

Park Ridge is trending Democratic, as more and more independent-minded young couples buy homes. But Frimark won a solid 2005 victory, and voters are not going to appreciate partisan governmental bickering. The anti-Frimark bunch will be punished at the polls in 2007.