Instead of burying my predictions at the end of this column, here are two prognostications which are metaphysical certainties:

First, the sun will rise tomorrow morning.

Second, Todd Stroger will not be Cook County Board president after December 2010, when his term expires.

Stroger, a black Democrat, personifies the "Peter Principle," which avers that people rise to their level of incompetence and no further. Adjectives such as clueless, hopeless, abysmal and horrendous usually describe Stroger's 2-year reign of error. "He's an embarrassment," county Commissioner Tony Peraica said. "He doesn't tell the truth. He hires political hacks and family. He has no credibility, and no moral authority to govern."

Stroger, who occupies his post due to his DNA, deserves credit for establishing the "Todd Principle," which avers that incompetent people precipitate widespread dysfunction, infecting all aspects of their domain. Without question, Cook County government is dysfunctional.

"He's a nice man, but it's not the job for him," said Toni Preckwinkle, a black alderman from the Hyde Park 5th Ward who has announced her 2010 candidacy for board president. "He's damaged and crippled the reputation of (county) government. It's time to professionalize it."

Preckwinkle said she will build a "coalition of progressives, Latinos and women" and will stress "reform in health care, criminal justice and forest preserves." She added: "We need more alternative sentencing, more diversion. It costs $40,000 per year to keep somebody in jail."

Also running is white county Commissioner Forrest Claypool, who got 46.5 percent of the vote in the 2006 Democratic primary against John Stroger, who suffered a stroke 10 days before the primary -- evoking a sympathy vote, particularly among black voters. Claypool had raised $2.4 million, and he was poised to unleash a nasty television ad campaign. Had John Stroger not been incapacitated, he would have lost. The vote was 318,634-276,682, a Stroger margin of 41,952 votes in a turnout of 595,316.

The ailing Stroger resigned his nomination in August of 2006, and Democratic committeemen, at the behest of Mayor Richard Daley, named Todd Stroger, the 8th Ward alderman, as his father's replacement. Media outrage was considerable. Stroger beat Republican Peraica in the ensuing election with just 52.9 percent of the vote. It's been downhill since.

A March poll by Bennett Petts Normington, paid for by the Service Employees International Union, had Claypool with a 27 percent voter approval rating, to 21 percent for Stroger and 16 percent Preckwinkle, with 36 percent of respondents undecided. That's a horrendous showing for Stroger. Stroger led Preckwinkle among blacks 26 percent to 24 percent.

With the Democratic primary set for Feb. 2, 2010, this much is clear:

First, it's all about Stroger -- a referendum on him. If the SEIU poll is accurate, 79 percent of the respondents are either anti- or non-Stroger voters. John Stroger got 53.5 percent of the vote in 2006, buoyed by a huge black turnout, but hardly a resounding ratification of his 12-year tenure.

Second, black voters comprise slightly more than 40 percent of the countywide Democratic primary vote. In 2006 John Stroger got 154,352 votes (84.3 percent of the total) in the 20 predominantly black wards, to 28,801 for Claypool. In 2010 half or more of the black vote may gravitate to Preckwinkle.

Third, in 2006 John Stroger, with support from white ward committeemen loyal to Mayor Richard Daley, got 39.7 percent of the outlying white vote. In the 10 predominantly white Northwest Side wards, Claypool won 48,803-19,566 (with 71.4 percent of the vote); Claypool lost the five predominantly white Southwest Side wards 23,429-28,054 (with 45.5 percent of the vote). That won't happen in 2010. Stroger is damaged goods, Preckwinkle has no appeal, and Claypool will win the white ethnic wards with 70 percent of the vote.

Fourth, in the six wards along the north Lakefront, where Claypool beat Stroger by 26,352-11,293, getting 70 percent of the vote, Preckwinkle's liberal record and gender will have considerable appeal.

Fifth, John Stroger won the nine Hispanic-majority wards by 18,802-15,752, getting 54.4 percent of the vote, but Todd Stroger won't replicate that feat.

And sixth, the real contest in 2010 will be between Claypool and Preckwinkle to apportion the anti-Stroger vote. The target is 40 percent.

Claypool won the suburbs in 2006 by 133,545-86,567, getting 60.7 percent of the vote in a turnout of 220,112. Preckwinkle will cut into Claypool's margin in such liberal enclaves as Evanston and Oak Park. Black committeemen in Maywood and the south suburbs will back Stroger. At worst, Claypool will get half the suburban primary vote, or 115,000 votes. Stroger and Preckwinkle will get about 60,000 apiece.

Stroger won Chicago in 2006 by 232,067-143,137, getting 61.8 percent of the vote in a turnout of 375,204. The Lakefront votes Claypool loses to Preckwinkle will be offset by 2006 Stroger white votes that he recovers. Claypool's base Chicago vote will be in the realm of 130,000 to 140,000, with Stroger and Preckwinkle dividing the remaining 235,000 votes.

The bottom line: If it's Claypool and two black candidates in a turnout of 600,000, Claypool's 250,000-plus votes (42 percent of the total) are enough to win. But if another white candidate, such as county Commissioner Larry Suffredin, runs, or if Stroger retires, the dynamics change.

In a one-on-one race against Claypool, Preckwinkle, with her base among blacks, white liberals and women, would be formidable. Suffredin would drain suburban votes from Claypool. If Stroger quits, Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown, who is black, could run. As of now, Claypool looks like the winner.

A Claypool win would have an impact on Chicago's 2011 mayoral race. Claypool was a former Daley chief of staff, and he would be no Daley critic. But blacks would be incensed. The Strogers, both Daley allies, comprised a firewall. Daley could point to a black face in charge of county government. If both Stroger and appointed U.S. Senator Roland Burris lose, then Preckwinkle, who has been an alderman since 1991, likely would run for mayor, as might Brown, who got 20 percent of the vote in a 2007 mayoral bid.

The "dysfunctional" rap on Todd Stroger has definite racial overtones. Some whites view Stroger's regime as symptomatic of the black family. Busboy Tony Cole was hired last October as a secretary for Donna Dunnings, who is Stroger's cousin and the county's $175,000-a-year chief financial officer.

Cole had a criminal background. He has been arrested twice since October, and he was bailed out by Dunnings both times. After his second arrest, he was promoted to a $61,000 highway department job.

Cole got paid while he was in jail. When that was revealed by the media in April, Stroger fired both Dunnings and Cole, denying he knew of Cole's history. The Illinois State Police's background check on Cole was submitted in December. Stroger said Dunnings wasn't really fired, but that she was planning to resign, a charge she denies.

Many voters have now concluded that Stroger is not only dumb, but deceitful. There's other baggage:

*The county budget is $3 billion, and it hasn't changed much in 3 years. Yet Stroger in 2008 insisted on a 1-cent hike in the county sales tax to raise $380 million in revenue. Now the "Toddler" wants to reduce the sales tax by 0.25 percent, saving consumers a quarter on every purchase of $100. "We didn't have to raise" the sales tax, Peraica said. "We could have cut spending."

For fiscal year 2009, Stroger sparked outrage when he proposed to borrow $220 million to cover ordinary expenses and $104 million for pension contributions. The board voted to cut spending, not increase bonding.

*The "Friends and Family Plan." "It's nepotism at its worst," Claypool said. Stroger's cousin, his sister, two brothers-in-law, his campaign manager, his father's doctor (who gets $310,000 to run County Hospital), and a slew of boyhood friends all have high-paying county jobs. According to Peraica, Stroger "spends $2 million on public relations," including $100,000 for an aide to craft "message," $96,000 for a liaison to churches and community groups, and $75,000 for his press "spokesman." Last year Stroger hired another chum, police officer Gene Mullins, as his new $105,059 "press chief." Stroger promoted Comptroller Joe Fratto to chief of staff, at a salary of $181,866; the new comptroller is John Morales, who earns $165,000.

*In 2006 Stroger was diagnosed with cancer, which he concealed. In 2008 he made all county employees sign a confidentiality agreement, barring disclosure to the media of any "inside information." That's not transparency.

"He's kept his promises," said Chris Geovanis, of the county's Department of Communications and Public Affairs. "He's cut the number of employees by 1,102 in 3 years. He held the line on the county's property tax rate. He consolidated services, decreased spending, increased transparency, gave the inspector general subpoena powers, and passed reforms regarding purchasing."

Geovanis added that there has been a "structural funding deficit for many years," with $200 million each year in federal money "slashed by the Bush Administration." Stroger, she said, has been "fiscally prudent."

County government is tasked with three functions: health services, including operating Cook County Hospital and outlying clinics, court services, including providing security in the various courthouses and courtrooms and policing the unincorporated areas, and staffing the Cook County Jail and transporting prisoners. Most county residents have no need of, nor exposure to, the county "services."

But all literate county residents have had considerable media exposure to Stroger's antics since 2006. The majority deem him a dimwit, and county government as dysfunctional. He's history.