For the past 35 years, a Republican nomination for any Cook County office has been about as desirable as a poke in the eye or a kick in the groin. And, from a Democratic perspective, facing a Republican opponent has been even less irritating than a minor case of psoriasis.

In the eighteen countywide elections since 1970, with a total of 148 offices on the ballot, a Republican has triumphed in just six – for an anemic four percent winning percentage. That’s pathetic.

However, as the 2006 election looms, two prominent Republicans are already vigorously poking and kicking each other in an effort to win what could be a very desirable Republican nomination – namely: president of the Cook County Board. The contenders are Tony Peraica and Liz Gorman, both of whom are county commissioners representing suburban districts. And their fervent hope is that the Democrats, in their primary, will kick, bash, poke and pummel each other to such a degree that the ultimate Democratic nominee will be unelectable.

The Republicans’ dream opponent is none other than the Board’s 11-year president, John Stroger. “Voters want a change,” said Peraica. “Scandal and incompetence have risen to epidemic levels.”  Gorman voices similar sentiments.

Stroger, age 75, the black 8th Ward Democratic committeeman, is one of Mayor Rich Daley’s staunchest political allies. Even when Daley was opposed by a black, Stroger delivered a sizeable vote in his ward for the white mayor. But Stroger, who has been in ill health, will face tough opposition if he runs again, and the reason is twofold:

First, the Board, consisting of 17 commissioners elected from single-member districts throughout the county, has become recalcitrant, if not obstructionary, regarding Stroger’s leadership. The Democrats have an 11-6 majority, but the Board has divided itself into pro- and anti-Stroger factions, and the anti-Stroger faction can usually muster ten votes. And that majority, which includes four Democrats, is doing its utmost to expose fiscal waste and bureaucratic ineptitude.

Stroger won a tough three-way primary in 1994 with 47 percent, and was easily renominated in 1998 with 71 percent; in 2002, he was unopposed. But 2006 will be different: there is a growing perception that county government, with a $3 billion annual budget and 26,000 jobs, is out of control.

And second, unique among county offices, any sitting commissioner can run for the president in the primary and/or election, while simultaneously running to keep his/her seat in the district. Also, a candidate for president need not be a commissioner – but, if elected, he would not have a vote in proceedings.

So far, no fewer than eight of the 17 commissioners are contemplating bids for president – which, for them, is a win-win situation. A presidential bid elevates the commissioner’s name recognition and stature in their district, aiding their bid for renomination or re-election; and, if they lose for president, they still keep their part-time, $85,000-a-year commissioner’s post. Plus, they can hold a second public job, or have a private-sector job or law practice. For example, Commissioner Pete Silvestri is Elmwood Park’s president, and had a state job as an attorney for many years. Former Commissioner Ted Lechowicz was both a state senator and commissioner.

Here’s the early 2006 lineup:

If Stroger, first elected in 1994, runs for a fourth term, he will definitely face opposition from Commissioner Mike Quigley, and possibly from Commissioners Forrest Claypool and Larry Suffredin – all of whom are white, and are strident Stroger critics. If Stroger retires, black Commissioners Earlean Collins and Bobbie Steele will run, as might Aldermen Ed Smith and Todd Stroger, the incumbent’s son, who would seek his dad’s Board seat. Even if John Stroger runs, Collins, who is outspokenly anti-Stroger, is leaning towards a bid. After his election in 2002, the liberal Quigley boisterously proclaimed that “the revolution has begun.” And, since 2002, Stroger’s control of the Board has totally evaporated.

The consensus is that against two or more white candidates, John Stroger, with backing from pro-Daley white committeemen, would win. But if it’s just Quigley, with Collins splitting the black vote, then Stroger loses.

This situation potentially benefits the Republicans, since all the Democratic challengers will be pounding on Stroger, blasting the dismal state of county government, and running as “reformers.” If Stroger wins, then the Republican becomes the “reform” candidate; if Quigley wins, then black voters and Machine politicians may decide that they’d rather tolerate a one-term Republican than Quigley.

But to get to Square Two, Peraica and Gorman have to get past Square One, and get nominated. And, with the primary over ten months away, the level of vitriol and vigor is already escalating.

“He (Peraica) is just too obnoxious and opportunistic. He’s made so many enemies that he can’t possibly win,” said Gorman. “Her (Gorman’s) political godfather is Ed Vrdolyak,” charged Peraica. “With that kind of baggage, she can’t possibly win (an election).”

Both Republicans concur on one issue: It’s time for a change. “We need to restructure county government, eliminate various departments, rein in the budget, and reform the union negotiation process,” said Gorman, who promised to spend up to $2 million on her campaign, of which a healthy portion would come from her own pocket. “Enough is enough,” emphasized Peraica. “We’re spending $300 billion to bring democracy to Iraq. But we have no democracy in Cook County. We have arrogant, corrupt one-party rule. And those who run the County Board are serving themselves, not the people. We need to restore checks-and-balances.” Peraica will also spend up to $2 million to win.

Peraica has officially announced his candidacy, and Gorman said that she is likely to announce by “the end of summer.”

Inasmuch as there hasn’t been a Republican primary for county office since 1978, it’s difficult to project turnout in the upcoming Peraica-Gorman primary. But five criteria must be considered: geographical base, gender, visibility, ideology, and hostility.

The 2002 Republican primary for governor featured three candidates: Jim Ryan, Corrine Wood, and Pat O’Malley. The countywide Republican turnout was 179,365, of which 147,109 came from the suburbs, and 32,256 from Chicago. Ryan was the choice of the Republican establishment; O’Malley, from the south suburbs, was the social conservative; and Wood was the moderate woman. Ryan won the suburbs with 45.6 percent, to Wood’s 28.3 and O’Malley’s 26.1; Ryan won Chicago with 41.9 percent, to Wood’s 35.5 and O’Malley’s 22.6.

There will be no “establishment” candidate in 2006 for board president. The 30 township and 50 ward Republican organizations will each decide whom they support. There will also be a tempestuous Republican primary for governor, featuring a moderate woman (state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka) and one or more social conservatives (O’Malley and/or Jim Oberweis and Steve Rauschenberger). Gorman can expect to inherit most of the 2002 Wood vote.

Of the two contenders, Peraica is the better speaker, and he’ll get the bulk of the organizational endorsements. But the key will be the social conservatives – those who oppose abortion rights, gun control, and gay rights. If Peraica connects with them, and they back him, that could be enough to put him over the top.

Gorman’s political base is in the southwest suburbs, including her home area around Orland Park and Tinley Park; prior to her election, she was president of Midlothian Dodge. Her 17th County Board District stretches from 183rd Street in the south to Central Road in the north, encompassing a string of western suburban towns, including Western Springs, Westchester, Northlake, Des Plaines, Park Ridge, and Mount Prospect. “I’m well-known” in my district, said Gorman. In 2002, she spent $300,000 of her own money to beat then-Commissioner Herb Schumann, attacking him for “voting with Stroger” and for having two relatives on the county payroll. In a squeaker, she topped Schumann, of Palos Heights, 10,920-10,261.

Peraica’s political base is in the west suburbs, where he is the Lyons Township Republican committeeman, first elected in 2002. In 1994, Peraica, an attorney, ran for county commissioner as a Democrat, losing to incumbent Republican Al Carr, then the Cicero clerk and Republican committeeman. By 2002, Peraica had switched parties and was backed by Betty Loren-Maltese, then the Cicero Town president and the Cicero Republican committeeman; he beat Carr, who had become a Loren-Maltese critic (and who had been ousted by her as committeeman in 1998), in the primary by 11,763-8,713. Peraica spent $500,000 of his own money to win. 

Peraica’s 16th District takes in the south suburbs, north of 87th Street and east of Mannheim, including Bridgeview, LaGrange, Brookfield, Riverside, Lyons, Cicero, and Berwyn, and extends north into Franklin Park, Schiller Park and Rosemont. After his election, Peraica became a virulent critic of Loren-Maltese and of Ed Vrdolyak, the former Chicago alderman whose law firm represents Cicero. In the 2005 election, Peraica was one of the few politicians who publicly supported Larry Dominick, the town’s ex-police chief, against Loren-Maltese’s Vrdolyak-backed successor, Ramiro Gonzalez. In a huge upset, Dominick won by 157 votes. But the Vrdolyak-run Republican organization in Cicero won’t forget, and they’ll do whatever it takes to repay the favor – and deliver a big vote for Gorman in 2006.

The primary outlook: Peraica is the better campaigner. Peraica will hammer Gorman on her alleged “Vrdolyak connection” – her husband is a business associate of Vrdolyak. And he will also assail what he calls her “questionable business dealings” – meaning a pending lawsuit by Chrysler Corporation against Midlothian Dodge. “I can’t comment on that,” said Gorman. She, in response, will castigate Peraica as a party-switching opportunist.

My prediction: The primary will be won or lost in the north suburbs and in the Chicago white ethnic wards. In 1978, the last GOP primary, in a turnout of 113,903, insurgent Don Mulack upset party-endorsed Lou Kasper in the Sheriff primary by just 4,639 votes. Mulack won comfortably on the North Shore and in the city white ethnic wards.

Expect Gorman to run well in the north suburbs, and expect Peraica to run well in the white ethnic wards. They will split their west/south suburban bases. Therefore, Peraica is a slight favorite to win.