In three decades as a politician, U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4) is known as sneaky, wily and a crass opportunist. He milks every issue for maximum publicity, shifts allegiances as necessary, and makes a buck whenever he can.

But one word describes Gutierrez' presumed retirement: loco.

Gutierrez, age 53, aspires to be mayor. In 2005 he announced his retirement from Congress after 2008 and his intention to run for mayor in 2007 on the issues of ethics and corruption. He blasted Mayor Rich Daley, saying that Chicago has "had the same leadership too long" and that money spent on Lakefront parks and the 2016 Olympics would be better used to "improve the wages of our teachers" and to build more schools. He ripped Daley for his veto of the big-box minimum wage ordinance, claiming that the mayor was engaged in "racial politics."

Gutierrez was aware that he needed a large field to win for mayor. His base of Hispanics and white liberals would have given him 20 to 25 percent of the vote. Against Daley and several credible black and white candidates, that's enough to finish second and get into the runoff with Daley.

But U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2) declined to run, and Gutierrez folded his campaign -- and endorsed Daley, calling him a "good mayor," and insisted that "my words are true." For a politician who broke into politics as an ardent ally of Harold Washington, then defected to support Daley in 1989 (and got Daley's support for congressman in 1992), then became a vocal critic of Daley's Hispanic Democratic Organization, then threatened to run against Daley, then endorsed him, Gutierrez' erratic opportunism is par for the course.

Gutierrez has made a legion of enemies, especially among blacks who venerate Washington and deem him a turncoat. His support for a pardon of convicted FALN terrorists, his opposition to federalizing airport security, his civil disobedience in Puerto Rico, his amazingly low property taxes back in Chicago, and his ties to indicted developer Tony Rezko all negatively hurt his credibility. Gutierrez bought a Diversey Avenue townhouse from Rezko's firm in 2003 for $434,000, while other buyers were paying $100,000 to $200,000 more; he sold it in 2006 for $610,000.

The next mayoral race is in 2011. Being the congressman from the overwhelmingly Hispanic 4th District gives Gutierrez relevance, credibility and visibility. On issues such as immigration, veterans, Puerto Rican independence and ending the Iraq War, Gutierrez is always worth a newspaper photo and a sound bite. He is the fifth-ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee and the second-ranking Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committee, so he is able to raise up to $800,000 per election cycle.

Retirement makes him irrelevant, destroys his fund-raising capacity, and makes his Hispanic congressional successor a potential mayoral competitor.

So the question is this: Since Gutierrez' word is not necessarily his bond, will he decide to "unretire"? He has not endorsed a replacement. The filing deadline for the Feb. 5, 2008, congressional primary election is Oct. 29, so candidates begin circulating petitions after Aug. 29.

The 4th District was designed to elect a Hispanic, and it is 74.5 percent Hispanic and 18.4 percent white. It is configured like a huge "C." The north side portion takes in Wicker Park, Humboldt Park and Logan Square, encompassing all of the 26th, 31st and 35th wards and parts of the 1st, 30th and 33rd wards. The population is heavily Puerto Rican. It snakes west to Cicero and Berwyn, with their large Mexican-American population, and back east into Little Village, Bridgeport, South Lawndale, Pilsen and McKinley Park, encompassing all or part of the 11th, 12th, 14th, 22nd, 23rd and 25th wards -- all heavily Mexican-American.

According to the 2000 census, the population of the district was 625,941, of whom 321,949 (51 percent) were of Mexican descent, 68,722 (11 percent) were Puerto Rican and 47,488 (8 percent) were of Central or South American descent. Since more than half of the Mexicans are not citizens, voter turnout is about half Mexican and other Hispanic, 30 percent Puerto Rican and 20 percent white.

Gutierrez, buoyed by a huge Puerto Rican and North Side vote, beat a Mexican-American primary challenger in 1992, 1994 and 2002. The latter contest featured Marty Castro, an attorney who spent $400,000 and ridiculed Gutierrez as being a "terrorist sympathizer" and an ineffectual legislator, more concerned with fighting the U.S. Navy in Vieques than fighting street gangs in Chicago. However, in a turnout of 56,195, Gutierrez racked up 68.2 percent of the vote, to Castro's 21.4 percent, carrying all 13 wards and three townships. A white candidate, John Holowinski, got 10.4 percent of the vote.

Presuming Gutierrez retires, the dynamics of the 2008 Democratic primary pit Puerto Rican against Mexican, North against South, and "reformers" against party insiders. A plethora of Mexican-American and South Side candidates will aid a Puerto Rican contender. A huge field of Hispanics could allow a white candidate to win with as little as 20 percent of the vote. A single female candidate could amass a lot of votes in a macho male field. And the Clinton-versus-Obama race for the presidential nomination will have an impact. Here are the candidates, their strengths and weaknesses:

Cook County Commissioner Roberto Maldonado, age 57, represents the North Side 8th District, taking in the 26th, 30th, 31st, 33rd and 35th wards. Strength: Like Gutierrez, Maldonado is Puerto Rican, and he is the congressman's former brother-in-law. Long-time "insider" Maldonado expects the backing of City Clerk Miguel del Valle and Board of Review Commissioner Joe Berrios, the 31st Ward committeeman. If he is the only Puerto Rican candidate running, he will have a distinct edge. In the 2002 primary, the wards in the 8th District cast 24,904 votes. Weakness: Maldonado is unknown outside his base, and he has not distinguished himself as a commissioner over the past 13 years.

Alderman Manny Flores (1st), age 35, an attorney who ran for alderman as a reformer in 2003 but who now is a Daley loyalist. When Gutierrez resigned as 1st Ward Democratic committeeman, Flores replaced him. Strength: Flores, who is Mexican American, would appeal to upscale voters and to white voters in Wicker Park, south Lakeview and parts of Logan Square. He has a solid base in his 1st Ward, which cast 5,354 votes in the 2002 primary. Weakness: With his Gucci loafers, polo shirts and non-Hispanic wife, abogado Flores is just a bit too "esnobista," or upper class, to appeal to South Side Mexicans. And his switch from "reformer" to pro-Daley reminds many of Gutierrez' chameleon reputation.

Alderman Ric Munoz (22nd), age 42, is a Mexican American from the South Side Little Village area and a consistent Daley and Hispanic Democratic Organization critic. He was elected 4th District Democratic state central committeeman in 2006, beating HDO-backed Alderman George Cardenas (12th) by 20,349-16,404, with 55.4 percent of the vote. Strength: Munoz has been an alderman since 1995, and he is the most liberal candidate in the race. He's been campaigning for 18 months, and he likely will ally himself with Barack Obama's presidential campaign. He was re-elected with 57 percent of the vote in 2007. Weakness: Munoz is detested by the HDO and most South Side Mexican-American politicians, and his 22nd Ward cast only 3,225 votes in the 2002 primary.

Alderman Danny Solis (25th), age 57, is a Mexican American from the South Side Pilsen area and a consistent Daley supporter. Daley has called him his "favorite Hispanic alderman." Strength: Daley and the South Side remnants of the HDO will back him. The 11th, 12th, 14th, 23rd and 25th wards cast 14,151 votes in 2002. Also, Solis' sister is Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, so he will get organizational and monetary aid from national sources. Weakness: Solis was re-elected in 2007 with just 51.4 percent of the vote, beating two former HDO activists. An alderman since 1996, Solis' popularity ain't what it used to be.

In this field, Maldonado would be the favorite. The North Side casts about 25,000 votes, the 1st Ward 5,500, the South Side 18,000 and the suburbs 4,000. That could increase by 10 to 25 percent on Feb. 5, as the Democratic presidential race may spur a higher turnout. In a turnout of 60,000, 20,000 votes are enough to win.

To win, Maldonado needs two-thirds of his North Side base (16,000), plus 4,000 votes elsewhere. Solis needs 75 percent of his South Side base (11,000), plus another 9,000 votes. Flores takes votes away from Maldonado and Munoz, and Munoz takes away votes from Solis. Flores and Solis will go negative on Maldonado very quickly.

The race could get even more complicated if either state Senator Iris Martinez (D-20), a North Side Puerto Rican, or state Representative Susana Mendoza (D-1), a South Side Mexican American, enter the fray. Both appeal to female voters. Martinez takes votes away from Maldonado, and Mendoza takes away votes from Munoz. If only one ran, against five or six men, she could get 25 to 30 percent of the vote and win.

The outlook: Expect Gutierrez to stay "retired," with Maldonado the early favorite to replace him.