Chicago politics, particularly on the aldermanic level, is usually predictable. But serious oddities are arising in two wards -- the upscale, affluent 42nd Ward, which includes the North Loop, Rush Street, the North Michigan Avenue "Gold Coast" and South Lincoln Park, and the increasingly affluent 2nd Ward, which includes the South Loop and Dearborn Park. In the former, a Republican may be elected alderman, and in the latter, a white alderman may replace a pro-Daley black alderman.

For most aldermen, familiarity and durability, coupled with minimal competency in dispensing city services, usually ensures political security. But when an area undergoes racial or economic change, the incumbent is jeopardized. That's what's occurring in those two wards.

42nd Ward: Burt Natarus, age 72, is crotchety, cantankerous and endlessly entertaining. Natarus has served since 1971, and he is chairman of the City Council Traffic Committee. His ward has lots of rich people, lots of corporate headquarters, and lots of trendy restaurants. Natarus, therefore, labors under the proverbial Sword of Damocles: If he doesn't spend 24/7 servicing all his varied constituencies, then one or more of those who are disgruntled will find and finance a challenger.

When it comes to headline grabbing, nobody does it better than Burt. The alderman is a vociferous opponent of a smoking ban in bars and restaurants. According to financial reports, Natarus received more than $150,000 in campaign contributions from restaurant owners over the past 5 years. Natarus has sought to ban or regulate boom-box radios, street performers, panhandlers, rollerbladers, 4 a.m. bars, hands-on auto cell phone users (especially cab drivers), parasailers, loud motorcyclists, loud boat music, dung-dropping horses drawing carriages, dung-dropping dogs and valet parkers who dump cars anywhere. He also has blasted police officers who arrest owners of unleashed dogs in parks and the mayor for a proposed residential property tax hike to fund Loop improvements, including Millennium Park. He introduced an ordinance to designate churches and houses of worship as city landmarks over the owner's objection. He also backs a 46-story condo at 600 N. Lake Shore Drive which would cast an afternoon shadow over Ohio Street beach and a 2,000-foot-tall corkscrew-shaped edifice on Water Street, opposite Navy Pier, which would be Chicago's tallest building.

Natarus addresses more substantive issues in a month than most aldermen do in an entire 4-year term. He's taken some heat for his ties to Near North Insurance and its owner, Mickey Segal, who was convicted of stealing $35 million from customer accounts. From 1975 to 1991, Natarus, an attorney, got $125,000 in legal fees from the firm.

After a generation in the shadow of longtime ward Democratic committeeman George Dunne, who held the office from 1961 to 2004, Natarus finally became committeeman in 2004, beating former judge Ken Gillis 4,692-3,525, with 57.1 percent of the vote, an unimpressive showing for a well known, 33-year alderman backed by the Dunne apparatus.

From day one, Natarus has benefited from Dunne's political dexterity -- first tagging along with Dunne as an ally of Mayor Richard J. Daley, then flipping with Dunne to Jane Byrne, then to Harold Washington, and then to Richard M. Daley. Dunne, as Cook County Board president from 1968 top 1990, always kept his city and county patronage jobs and always had the precinct troops to keep Natarus in office.

Nevertheless, Natarus has been a political weakling: He was elected in 1971 with 56.5 percent of the vote, re-elected in 1975 with 79 percent and was unopposed in 1979. But then he cratered: He got 55.4 percent of the vote in 1983 against Ed Howlett. He was forced into a runoff in 1987 against Barbara Pressman and won with 54.3 percent. He got 62 percent in 1991, just 51.3 percent in 1995 and 56 percent in 1999. In 2003, against Republican ward committeeman Rich Gordon, Natarus won by 5,540-4,378 (56 percent), a margin of 1,162 votes.

Given the upscale nature of the ward, the Republican vote is climbing. Al Gore beat George Bush in 2000 by 19,127-10,972. The Kerry-Bush vote in 2004 was 20,604-11,696. Democrats Rod Blagojevich and Lisa Madigan won the ward in 2002 by 3,592 votes and 2,718 votes, respectively.

For 2007, Gordon is again running, and he bemoans the "Natarus fatigue" which he claims grips the ward. Another likely contender is Brendan Riley, who ran Paul Vallas' 2002 primary campaign for governor.

The outlook: Some aldermen rise to be an icon, much beloved and unbeatable. Natarus never will. He's been around for a long time, but most 42nd Ward voters have been around for a short time. They neither know nor love Natarus. In fact, many condominium owners are around for only part of the year. As demonstrated in 2003, city election turnout is only a third of presidential year turnout.

Given the plenitude of condos, precinct door knockers are irrelevant. Elections are won by mailings. Gordon can win, but only if he raises the $200,000 needed for an anti-Natarus mail avalanche. Natarus is the early favorite, and he must get a majority in the Feb. 27, 2007, election; if not, he could lose the April runoff. The key: Whoever can identify, solidify and bring out 5,000 voters will win.

2nd Ward: Nothing could be odder than this gentrifying Near South Loop ward. Daley is a resident. U.S. Representative and longtime Daley foe Bobby Rush is the Democratic committeeman. And Daley ally/Rush foe Madeline Haithcock is the alderman. In 2007 the ward may do the incredible: oust its pro-Daley black alderman, Haithcock, and elect an anti-Daley white alderman.

The 2nd Ward is a political and geographic monstrosity, encompassing four distinct neighborhoods and stretching in an arc from 37th Street in the south, north to Jackson and west to Sacramento, and also picking up predominantly black West Side areas south to 16th Street.

The area from 18th Street southward is in Rush's congressional district, has 3,133 registered voters, had a turnout of 1,553 in the 2006 Democratic primary, and is mostly black. The area south of Jackson to Ashland, north of Roosevelt, where the mayor resides, has more than 12,000 mostly white voters and had a turnout of 3,100 in 2006. The Taylor Street section, from Harrison to 16th, west of Clark, is mostly black and has 3,500 registered voters, but only turned out 906 in 2006. And the west end, from Ashland west to Sacramento, in Danny Davis' county board district, has 8,286 registered voters and had a 2006 turnout of 2,021.

White voters exceed black voters, but a high black turnout should ensure a Haithcock win. However. other dynamics are at play.

First, Haithcock is not universally beloved, and her alliance with Daley has angered many black voters. Her critics berate her for the incompetence of her staff and for her fealty to developers, who contribute liberally to her campaign fund. In the South Loop area, new condominiums are going for $280,000 and up.

Second, Haithcock is detested by Rush and his allies. Rush was elected the ward's alderman in 1983 and was re-elected in 1987 and 1991. He was elected ward Democratic committeeman in 1984 and was re-elected in 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004. He was elected to the U.S. House in 1992 and has been re-elected since. His aldermanic replacement was Haithcock, appointed by Daley with Rush's consent. But there was a fissure, and in 1995 Rush backed his sister, Geraldine Laury, against Haithcock, who led in the primary 2,781-1,781. Haithcock won the runoff 5,495-4,669. In 1999, when Rush ran for mayor, he lost the 2nd Ward 5,566-5,230 to Daley, and Haithcock clobbered Laury 6,491-1,820.

In 2003 Haithcock won with 55 percent of the vote in a six-candidate field, getting 4,190 votes. Daley got 5,428 votes, to 1,667 for Paul Jakes, in the ward.

Third, Haithcock has baggage. After the E2 nightclub fire, Jesse Jackson Sr. rebuked Haithcock for consoling the families of the deceased after allegedly helping the owners maintain the club's operation. Haithcock also advocated the naming of a street after slain Black Panther Fred Hampton.

The outlook: There will be at least one credible white candidate and several black candidates, including one backed by Rush. Ironically, Haithcock is now the mayor's alderman, and he will exhort his organization on her behalf. Expect a runoff. Expect Rush to do his utmost to sink Haithcock, even if a white alderman would challenge him for committeeman in 2008. And expect Haithcock to lose.

1st Ward (South Wicker Park, Ukrainian Village, East Village and West Bucktown): Young attorney Manny Flores forced pro-Daley incumbent Jesse Granato into a 2003 runoff and beat him 5,290-3,717. Granato then resigned as Democratic committeeman and was replaced by U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4). But now Gutierrez, who is pondering a 2007 mayoral bid, is moving out of the ward.

Will Flores, who has been generally supportive of the mayor in this upscale, increasingly white ward, get the committeeman's post? Daley needs Flores' support more than Flores needs Daley's backing. Expect Flores to be appointed, become a loyal cog in the Daley machine, and run for Gutierrez' open congressional seat in 2008.